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Bitcoin Price Trend Analysis

Currencies / Bitcoin Aug 14, 2021 - 10:38 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Currencies

Dear Reader

This is part 4 of 5 of my extensive full spectrum analysis of the crypto markets, of what I expect to happen over the next 6 months in terms of a Bitcoin price trend forecast, and the strategy I am deploying to capitalise on as well as 5 potential black swans that could collapse the crypto markets where Stable Coins such as USDT are what could be imminent catalysts for.

Part 1 Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania 2021,

Part 2 Bitcoin Halvings Price Forecast and Stock to Flow Analysis)

Part 3 Bitcoin, Crypto Market Black Swans from Google to Obsolescence

Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels

Topics covered in this analysis:

  • Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania
  • Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast Review
  • Lessons Learned
  • Cathy Crypto Wood's View on Bitcoin
  • BITCOIN HALVINGS TREND TRAJECTORY
  • Stock to Flow Infinity and Beyond!
  • Bitcoin, Crypto's and the Inflation Mega-trend
  • Black Swan 1 - Will Crypto's Get Banned?
  • Black Swan 2 - GOOGLE
  • Black Swan 3 - USDT Tether Un-Stable Coin Ponzi Schemes!
  • BLACK SWAN 4 - Bitcoin 51% Network Attack by China?
  • Black Swan 5 - Bitcoin is Already Obsolete
  • US Trending Towards Hyperinflation
  • BITCOIN TREND ANALYSIS
  • Bitcoin Bear markets analysis - How low could she blow?
  • Bitcoin Trend Forecast
  • Bitcoin Long-term probable Next bull market price target
  • Alternative Scenarios
  • My Crypto Bear Market Investing Strategy
  • Crypto 1 - Ethereum (ETH) $2600
  • Crypto 2 - Bitcoin $40,375
  • Crypto 3 - Ravencoin $0.078
  • Crypto 4 - Cardano $1.59
  • Crypto 5 - Pokadot $25
  • Crypto 6 - ChainLink $26
  • Crypto's 7 to 10
  • Creating The Perfect Crypto
  • How to Invest in Crypto Without Getting SCAMMED
  • CHIA SCAM COIN
  • Binance vs Coinbase
  • Have ARK Invest Funds Bottomed?

The whole of this extensive analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for currently just $3 per month that is soon set to increase to $4 per month for new Patrons, so a short window of opportunity exists to lock in at $3 per month https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

BITCOIN TREND ANALYSIS

Bitcoins price action during the first half of 2021 was a classic distribution pattern that had the smart money (you and me) SELLING out of Bitcoin and other crypto positions.

The chart shows a lower high followed by a break of the 48,000 low which resulted in a measuring move to $36k, around which Bitcoin has been gyrating as it works off an over sold state i.e. so that the scared crypto investors after the May blood bath can start to feel bullish once more, hence if you go online you are going to see a lot of chest pounding going on out there in the crypto world that each passing day proclaim that the bottom is in, Bitcoin withstood it's test and thus it's a Wyckoff to the moon! $180k by October and more!

When instead all Bitcoin has done is to gradually undo an oversold state all without having gone anywhere in price which should mean that Bitcoin is preparing for another leg lower that could be on par with the decline from $65k to $31k off of about $44k, so technically Bitcoin price could trade as low as $10k! No I don't expect $10k to be probable but it is possible, nevertheless trend analysis so far continues to suggest that significantly lower prices than $31k are more probable than not. Though the moves will be very volatile because there are a lot of technical traders out there, trading on margin and reacting to price triggering moves thus magnifying the price trends in either direction that and exchanges running stops to their own advantage.

Elliot Wave - Suggests that we have seen the first ABC of a probable 3-3-5 wave pattern. Which means the current pattern is corrective, that could even extend higher back towards the Mid $40,000. That I am sure would lull many crypto maniacs into a false sense of security before the REAL bear market begins in percentage terms i.e. the move from the high ($44k?), will likely exceed the 52% drop from $65k. Anyway gaming a 52% off 44k would suggest a target of $22k. Which I would equate as to the upper end of a bear market target for Bitcoin.

Support - In terms of where a falling Bitcoin price would gravitate towards and find support we have $29k, $23.5k, $20k, $18k, $14k, and then heavy support at $11.5k. At this time I can not imagine Bitcoin could trade lower than $11.5k, but it could, just that sitting here at $40k it seems pretty far fetched.

So in terms of trend analysis bitcoin is WEAK. The obvious target is the previous highs at 20k. and even below that we have support all the way to $14k, that should act as the key target range to accumulate Bitcoin in should such a decline materialise.

Price Pattern - Mega head and shoulders pattern (weak pattern), where a a break of the neckline would measure all the way down to $4000! But it is a weak pattern.

Bitcoin Bear markets analysis - How low could she blow?

That magic number of $14,000 is cropping up once more when taking an average of the last 4 Bitcoin bear markets, this analysis also suggests that the bear market could run into 2022.

However taking the more conservative last bear market into March 2020 would project to a bottom at around Bitcoin $18,000 during December 2021.

Bitcoin Trend Forecast

The rest of this extensive analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for currently just $3 per month that is soon set to increase to $4 per month for new Patrons, so a short window of opportunity exists to lock in at $3 per month https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels

  • Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania
  • Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast Review
  • Lessons Learned
  • Cathy Crypto Wood's View on Bitcoin
  • BITCOIN HALVINGS TREND TRAJECTORY
  • Stock to Flow Infinity and Beyond!
  • Bitcoin, Crypto's and the Inflation Mega-trend
  • Black Swan 1 - Will Crypto's Get Banned?
  • Black Swan 2 - GOOGLE
  • Black Swan 3 - USDT Tether Un-Stable Coin Ponzi Schemes!
  • BLACK SWAN 4 - Bitcoin 51% Network Attack by China?
  • Black Swan 5 - Bitcoin is Already Obsolete
  • US Trending Towards Hyperinflation
  • BITCOIN TREND ANALYSIS
  • Bitcoin Bear markets analysis - How low could she blow?
  • Bitcoin Trend Forecast
  • Bitcoin Long-term probable Next bull market price target
  • Alternative Scenarios
  • My Crypto Bear Market Investing Strategy
  • Crypto 1 - Ethereum (ETH) $2600
  • Crypto 2 - Bitcoin $40,375
  • Crypto 3 - Ravencoin $0.078
  • Crypto 4 - Cardano $1.59
  • Crypto 5 - Pokadot $25
  • Crypto 6 - ChainLink $26
  • Crypto's 7 to 10
  • Creating The Perfect Crypto
  • How to Invest in Crypto Without Getting SCAMMED
  • CHIA SCAM COIN
  • Binance vs Coinbase
  • Have ARK Invest Funds Bottomed?

Including access to most recent extensive analysis AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Ahead of a Market CRASH / Correction 2021

  • Stock Market Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021
  • Microsoft to the Moon - OUCH!
  • CISCO to the Moon - OUCH!
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  • AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and SELLING Levels
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Buy / Sell Table Update
  • High Risk Stocks
  • Market Oracle AI Coin Mothballed
  • Global Warming Code RED

Plus - Chasing Value with Five More Biotech Stocks for the Long-run

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  • HIGH RISK STOCK BUYING LEVELS\
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  • Cxxxxxxxxxxxx- Cxxx - - Risk 5
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  • High Risk Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels
  • Netflix - FAANG a Buy, Sell or Hold?
  • Trending towards Hyperinflation!
  • Delta Variant!
  • Solar CME MULTIPLE Black Swans

And where machine learning predicts AI stock price valuations 3 years ahead- AI Predicts AI Tech Stock Price Valuations into 2024, Time to Buy Chinese Tech Stocks?

  • AI Stocks Value Forecaster (ASVF).
  • How I Use ASVF6 - Percent Upwards Pressure (PUP)
  • AI Stocks Buying Levels Plus ASVF & PUP 
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Buying Levels
  • Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets
  • Pattern Recognition 
  • Trend Analysis Preprocessing
  • Crossing the Rubicon With These Three High Risk Tech Stocks
  • Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 1
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  • Cheap Chinese Tech Stock 3
  • CME Black Swan

And my analysis evaluating the prospects for a Financial Crisis 2.0 THIS year - Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH!

  • You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS
  • Stock Market Summer Correction
  • REPO Market Brewing Financial Crisis Black Swan Danger
  • Margin Debt Bubble
  • US Bond Market Long-term Trend
  • Michael "Big Short" Burry CRASH and HYPERINFLATION WARNING!
  • Michael Burry's Track Record
  • Michael Burry's Portfolio
  • Investing During Uncertainty
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Buying July Levels Update
  • HEDGING AI Stocks Portfolio
  • Crypto Bear Market Accumulation State
  • Bitcoin Bull / Bear Indicator
  • Market Oracle AI Coin Thoughts
  • Biotech Brief

My analysis schedule includes:

  • UK House Prices Trend Analysis, including an update for the US and a quick look at Canada - 10% done
  • How to Get Rich! - 85% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress that I will seek to revise once per year.

  • Gold and SIlver Price Analysis
  • US Dollar and British Pound analysis

Again for immediate access to all of my analysis then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month that is soon set to increase to $4 per month for new Patrons, so a short window of opportunity exists to lock in at $3 per month https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Your crypto's accumulating analyst.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2021 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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