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UK Population Growth Trend Forecast to 2030 Current State

Housing-Market / Demographics May 31, 2022 - 03:09 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Housing-Market

My long standing forecast is for the UK population to grow from 62.2 million as of Mid 2010 to at least 70.5 million by 2030 as excerpted below:

2nd August 2010 - UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030 

The assumptions being factored into the UK population growth forecast are for a natural UK population growth rate of births exceeding deaths of 0.33% per year (current 200k), coupled with net average current immigration trend of 240k per year, supplemented with climate change refugees averaging 50k per year from 2015 onwards extrapolates into the following trend forecast over the next 10 years that targets a rise from 62.2 million as of mid 2010 to 67 million by mid 2020, and should the same trend be maintained beyond 2020 then the UK population could rise to above 72 million by mid 2030. However in all probability the country will not experience the post 2020 trend due to several converging factors including political pressures, capacity constraints and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues. Which implies a tapering off of net immigration in favour of natural growth which implies a lower total of nearer 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the below graph.


One of the primary drivers for population growth and for triggering the EU Referendum is immigration, specifically EU immigration that many had concluded was out of control as membership of the European Union translates into the free movement of workers which has prevented the UK from controlling its borders for approaching 20 years and has seen the UK buffeted by waves economic migrant flows from mostly Eastern Europe each year. All adding to those that came before with total immigration from the EU since 2000 having passed the 5 million mark by 2016. All whilst both Labour and then the Conservative governments promises to bring immigration under control having amounted to nothing more than empty promises, as parliament clearly had NO control over EU migration, which thus has continued well beyond the targets of the tens of thousands per year. 

And thus the people of Britain on the 23rd of June 2016 chose to take back control of Britain's borders by voting to LEAVE the European Union which followed over a decade of EU migration putting added pressure each year on housing, jobs and social services such as schools, NHS and the benefits system, virtually all of which were at critical breaking points by the time of the election and politicians lived in a bubble far removed from the experience of ordinary people..

The updated UK population graph shows UK population has risen to 67.5 million for December 2021, against my trend forecast of 67.58 million. Which implies that the UK population remains on target to increase by an additional 3 million by 2030 as a consequence of what amounts to continuing out of control immigration despite BREXIT that in total translates into a UK population increase equivalent to 6 cities the size of Sheffield by 2030. 

In terms of house prices, then the trend trajectory remains the same, where Immigration remains a primary driver for UK population growth adding some 300k per annum amounting to most of the annual population increase which shows no signs of diminishing to a rate anywhere near the level of annual UK house building (140,000 per year). Thus population growth will continue to put upwards pressure on house prices for at least another decade. A metric that most would be housing market analysts fail to grasp. THIS ALONG with INFLATION are your TWO HIGH house prices smoking guns! Which strongly suggests that unless net immigration falls to well below 100k per annum then any UK house price wobbles such as occurred following the Brexit vote will always turn out to be temporary as new building cannot even keep pace with existing pent up demand let alone the added pressure from that of continuing net migration of over 300k per year.

So my long-term message remains EXACTLY the same for now approaching 10 YEARS for all those waiting to get a foot onto the property ladder which is not to pin your hopes on any significant price falls let alone a crash in UK house prices such as what the Bank of England were forecasting a 30% post Brexit house prices crash that FAILED to materialise, which means those waiting to buy should act sooner rather than later, to get a foot onto Britains property ladder else face the consequences of ever rising house prices in the face of one of the primary fundamental drivers of UK annual population growth far outpacing house building courtesy of continuing high immigration, far beyond the 50k annual target that the Conservative government used to trundle out as being imminent but gave up hopes of ever achieving some 6 years ago! Which now the Ukraine crisis will likely worsen still with some 300,000 already on their way to the UK, virtually all of whom will seek permanent settlement, thus a year from now even those offering rooms in their homes to Ukrainians will be moaning about the impact on housing and social services. There is no free lunch, invite upwards of 300,000 excess people into the UK and then be prepared to pay the price in terms of added pressures on housing, health and social services that were already at breaking point.

This article in an excerpt from my most recent extensive analysis focused on UK House Prices Three Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025, where I pealed away multiple layers of the UK housing market of to arrive at a high probability trend forecast.

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast 
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024

That was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Whilst my recent analysis include -

My Main Analysis Schedule

  • UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
  • US House Prices Trend Forecast - 70%
  • Global Housing / Investing Markets - 60%
  • US Dollar / British Pound Trend Forecasts - 0%
  • Stock Market Trend forecast into End 2022 - 0%
  • High Risk Stocks Update - Health / Biotech Focus - 0%
  • How to Get Rich - 85%
  • Gold and Silver Analysis - 0%

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your analyst BUYING the panic selling falling knives.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2022 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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