Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Putin’s World: Why Russia’s Showdown with the West Will Worsen - John_Mauldin
2. Stocks Bull Market Grinds Bears into Dust, Is Santa Rally Sustainable? - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Gold and Silver 2015 Trend Forecasts, Prices to Go BOOM - Austin_Galt
4.Gold Price Golden Bottom? - Toby_Connor
5.Gold Price and Miners Soar on Huge Volume - P_Radomski_CFA
6.Stock Market and the Jaws of Life or Death? - Rambus_Chartology
7.Gold Price 2015 - EWI
8.Manipulated Stock Market Short Squeezes to Another All Time High - The China Syndrome - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Gold, Silver, Crude and S&P Ending Wedge Patterns - DeviantInvestor
10.Is the Gold And Silver Golden Rule Broken? - Michael_Noonan
Last 5 days
The Commodities Market Is Not Dying, It’s Just Hibernating - 19th Dec 14
The Price Of Gold And The Art Of War - 18th Dec 14
Euro Succumbs to ECB QE Expectations and FOMC - 18th Dec 14
John Williams: A Downhill Run for the U.S. Dollar in 2015 - 18th Dec 14
Outrage at Taliban Islamic Fundamentalists Massacre of 132 Pakistani School Children in the Name of God - 18th Dec 14
How Inflation Changes Retirement Benefit Choices - 17th Dec 14
The Real Reason It's Tough to Beat the Stock Market - 17th Dec 14
Russian Currency Crisis and Debt Defaults Could Create Contagion in West - 17th Dec 14
How to Profit From Russia's Stock Market Crash - 17th Dec 14
Russia Crisis - If You Put Your Money in the Bank Will You Get it Back? - 17th Dec 14
Crude Oil Price Crash, U.S. Employment and Economic Growth - 17th Dec 14
Opposing Forces At Play In Gold and Silver Precious Metals Complex - 17th Dec 14
Wall Street Will Always Find An Excuse For Not Raising U.S. Interest Rates - 17th Dec 14
Torture, Terror And Elite Schizophrenia In The UK - 16th Dec 14
Eurozone Conflict Will Bring a Major Stocks Buying Opportunity - 16th Dec 14
Viewing Russia From the Inside - 16th Dec 14
Gold and Silver Stocks Bottom - Are We There Yet? - 16th Dec 14
The Financial Industry Pigmen Win Again - 16th Dec 14
Crude Oil Price Epic Blowout - 16th Dec 14
Asian Stocks Markets: Sand In The Gears Of The Bull Market - 16th Dec 14
U.S. Dollar Trend Forecast 2015 - Video - 16th Dec 14
Silver Price Bottom? - 15th Dec 14
Gold Price Base Building Bullish Pattern - 15th Dec 14
Stock Market Probable Pop-n-Crash Today - 15th Dec 14
Stock Market Time for a Bounce - 15th Dec 14
Stock Market Euphoria: The Mother of All Ponzi Schemes - 15th Dec 14
Gold - The Weight of Time as Trend - 15th Dec 14
U.S. Dollar Collapse? USD Index Trend Forecast 2015 - 14th Dec 14
The Rushing Stocks Bear Market and How to Prepare - 14th Dec 14
Gold and Silver Dreaming of a White Christmas - 14th Dec 14
Cyprus-style Bank Bail-ins to Take Deposits and Pensions - The Global Bankers' Coup - 13th Dec 14
How To Renounce Your US Citizenship And Become Stateless - 13th Dec 14
Stock Market Downtrend Underway - 13th Dec 14
Gold And Silver - Wall Street, aka United States, Pulls Off Another Destructive Coup - 13th Dec 14
U.S. Congress Has Guaranteed the Secular Stocks Bear Market is Not Over - 13th Dec 14
Gold and Silver Starting to Show Bullish Signs - 13th Dec 14
Arab Spring II is Coming Fast - The Unintended Consequences of Lower Oil Prices - 13th Dec 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Dramatic Stock Market Selloff

UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030

Economics / Demographics Aug 02, 2010 - 12:27 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhilst Britain is rarely if ever at the top of the various quality of life statistics such as economic growth, average earnings, disposable incomes, living space, healthcare services, pensions, personal freedoms and education. However when taken as a whole package, Britain remains one of the worlds most civilised countries that acts as a beacon that continues to attract peoples form all over the developing and developed world, which continues to push the UK population ever higher despite many Western European countries experiencing population stagnation or even falling populations such as Germany, where in fact 1/3rd of the annual rise in Europe's population as a whole takes place in Britain.


The above immigration data illustrates that the UK experiences average net immigration of 225k per year with most immigrants from the Indian Sub continent, Eastern Europe, South Africa, Middle East and in more recent years China. Against which significant net emigration occurs to Australia, New Zealand and Canada. However official data excludes illegal immigration that averages at an estimated rate of between 20-40,000 per year thus putting added upward pressure on population growth.

Once the net birth rate of 200k at 0.33% of the population is factored into the equation, the UK population is currently increasing at an average rate of approx 425,000 per year, which targets a rise to at least 66 million from the current 62.2 million within the next 10 years. The anticipated minimum increase of 4.25 million in 10 years is equivalent to 8 large cities that are frankly not going to be built.

The existing immigration trends from immigration from Eastern Europe are likely to be supplemented further over the next 10 years as the exploding middle and upper middle classes of countries such as China, India and Brazil that number in the hundreds of millions, will use their new found wealth in significant numbers to seek to relocate to more civilised countries such as Britain, United States, Australia and Canada, though the obvious difference between the four being that Britain does not have the wide open spaces of the alternative destinations therefore even a relatively small influx from the hundreds of millions of rich migrants will significantly impact on forecast trend expectations for an increase of 4.25 million.

Further upward immigration pressure is expected to result as a consequence of the increase in the trend for illegal immigration, and refugee and asylum seekers from war torn areas of the world from a pool of some 50 million refugees. However against this the next 10 years could see over a 100 million climate change refugees from predominantly poor developing nations as a consequence of drought, famine, rising sea levels and floods that could increase the annual intake into the UK anywhere by between 40,000 and 100,000 per year, though more likely to start to materialise later in the decade.

New Government Immigration Controls

The coalition government is following along a similar path as the last Labour government by talking tough on immigration controls but likely not to deliver anything significant. The government is constrained on what it can actually do to limit immigration as it cannot affect immigration from within Europe, refugee and asylum seekers, illegal immigration many of whom are over staying students (300k student visas per year) or the bulk of wealth based migration that takes place annually. Therefore the government is focusing on capping skilled workers work permits to 24,000 a year down from approx 50,000 (plus dependants) which has resulted in much outrage from big business. At the end of the day all of the governments measures once implemented are not going to effect net immigration by more than about 10% and probably less considering the resulting increase in illegal immigration, thereby little net impact on expected immigration trend expectations.

UK Population Growth Forecast Conclusion

The assumptions being factored into the UK population growth forecast are for a natural UK population growth rate of births exceeding deaths of 0.33% per year (current 200k), coupled with net average current immigration trend of 240k per year, supplemented with climate change refugees averaging 50k per year from 2015 onwards extrapolates into the following trend forecast over the next 10 years that targets a rise from 62.2 million as of mid 2010 to 67 million by mid 2020, and should the same trend be maintained beyond 2020 then the UK population could rise to above 72 million by mid 2030. However in all probability the country will not experience the post 2020 trend due to several converging factors including political pressures, capacity constraints and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues. Which implies a tapering off of net immigration in favour of natural growth which implies a lower total of nearer 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the below graph.

The impact of an increase in UK population over the next 10 years by 7.7% is expected to continue to feed Britain's INFLATIONARY MEGA-TREND for the next decade as rising population puts extra pressure on Britains capacity constrained infrastructure, pressure on consumer and asset prices, especially house prices and associated costs as well as contributing economically to an increase in nominal GDP growth. Whilst maintaining the expected trend that UK unemployment will remain high for the duration of the next 10 years, no matter what job creation initiatives the government attempts to implement to reduce stubbornly high unemployment levels as between 70% and 80% of new jobs created will go to migrant workers as was the experience under the last Labour government.

Comments and Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21565.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and the housing market and he is the author of the NEW Inflation Mega-Trend ebook that can be downloaded for Free. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 500 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Nim
02 Aug 10, 17:08
House Prices

Hi Nadeem,

To clarify, are you saying that the population trend will lead to considerably higher house prices over the coming years? The Inflation Mega Trend Guide shows that we are in the price depression phase bar the election bounce ...

Thanks in advance! Nim


Nadeem_Walayat
02 Aug 10, 17:13
uk house prices

Hi

This analysis is part of current ongoing analysis the aim for which is to arrive at an accurate multiyear trend forecast graph hopefully within the next 6 weeks.

Many articles will flow that will reveal the trend puzzle little by little.

Best

NW


maca
24 Oct 10, 15:50
uk population

I dont believe the population stetistics for the uk. I can remeber in the 80,s the uk population was around the mid 60 million range. my asumtion is, we are already around the 70 million mark today, thats why already we are seeing signs of the uk not being able to cope with the population. So i belive in only 20 years the uk will not be such a desirable place to live. We do need to act now, just like we have egnolaged climate change.

Maca


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014