Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. 2019 From A Fourth Turning Perspective - James_Quinn
2.Beware the Young Stocks Bear Market! - Zeal_LLC
3.Safe Havens are Surging. What this Means for Stocks 2019 - Troy_Bombardia
4.Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2018 - Trump and BrExit Chaos Dominate - Nadeem_Walayat
5.January 2019 Financial Markets Analysis and Forecasts - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Why 90% of Traders Lose - Nadeem_Walayat
8.What to do With Your Money in a Stocks Bear Market - Stephen_McBride
9.Stock Market What to Expect in the First 3~5 Months of 2019 - Chris_Vermeulen
10.China, Global Economy has Tipped over: The Surging Dollar and the Rallying Yen - FXCOT
Last 7 days
If You Get These 3 Things Right, You’ll Never Have to Worry About Money - 22nd Mar 19
March 2019 Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis - 22nd Mar 19
Turkey Tourist Fakes Market Bargains Haggling Top Tips - 22nd Mar 19
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins - 22nd Mar 19
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You - 22nd Mar 19
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! - 22nd Mar 19
Will Bridging Loans Grow in Demand and Usage in 2019? - 22nd Mar 19
Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? - 21st Mar 19
Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For - 21st Mar 19
UKIP No Longer About BrExit, Becomes BNP 2.0, Muslim Hate Party - 21st Mar 19
A Message to the Gold Bulls: Relying on the CoT Gives You A False Sense of Security - 20th Mar 19
The Secret to Funding a Green New Deal - 20th Mar 19
Vietnam, Part I: Colonialism and National Liberation - 20th Mar 19
Will the Fed Cut its Interest Rate Forecast, Pushing Gold Higher? - 20th Mar 19
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern - 20th Mar 19
Gold Stocks Outperform Gold but Not Stocks - 20th Mar 19
Here’s What You’re Not Hearing About the US - China Trade War - 20th Mar 19
US Overdosing on Debt - 19th Mar 19
Looking at the Economic Winter Season Ahead - 19th Mar 19
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? - 19th Mar 19
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis - 19th Mar 19
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! - 19th Mar 19
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues - 19th Mar 19
Gold Price Confirmation of the Warning - 18th Mar 19
Split Stock Market Warning - 18th Mar 19
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 - Video - 18th Mar 19
Best Precious Metals Investment and Trades for 2019 - 18th Mar 19
Hurdles for Gold Stocks - 18th Mar 19
Pento: Coming QE & Low Rates Will Be ‘Rocket Fuel for Gold’ - 18th Mar 19
"This is for Tommy Robinson" Shouts Knife Wielding White Supremacist Terrorist in London - 18th Mar 19
This Is How You Create the Biggest Credit Bubble in History - 17th Mar 19
Crude Oil Bulls - For Whom the Bell Tolls - 17th Mar 19
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th Mar 19
Why Buy a Land Rover - Range Rover vs Huge Tree Branch Falling on its Roof - 17th Mar 19
UKIP Urged to Change Name to BNP 2.0 So BrExit Party Can Fight a 2nd EU Referendum - 17th Mar 19
Tommy Robinson Looks Set to Become New UKIP Leader - 16th Mar 19
Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - 16th Mar 19
Towards the End of a Stocks Bull Market, Short term Timing Becomes Difficult - 16th Mar 19
UKIP Brexit Facebook Groups Reveling in the New Zealand Terror Attacks Blaming Muslim Victims - 16th Mar 19
Gold – US Dollar vs US Dollar Index - 16th Mar 19
Islamophobic Hate Preachers Tommy Robinson and Katie Hopkins have Killed UKIP and Brexit - 16th Mar 19
Countdown to The Precious Metals Gold and Silver Breakout Rally - 15th Mar 19
Shale Oil Splutters: Brent on Track for $70 Target $100 in 2020 - 15th Mar 19
Setting up a Business Just Got Easier - 15th Mar 19
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video - 15th Mar 19
Gold Warning - Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - Part 1 - 15th Mar 19
UK Weather SHOCK - Trees Dropping Branches onto Cars in Stormy Winds - Sheffield - 15th Mar 19
Best Time to Trade Forex - 15th Mar 19
Why the Green New Deal Will Send Uranium Price Through the Roof - 14th Mar 19
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? - 14th Mar 19
US Conservatism - 14th Mar 19
Gold in the Age of High-speed Electronic Trading - 14th Mar 19
Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - 14th Mar 19
Why Walmart Will Crush Amazon - 14th Mar 19
2019 Economic Predictions - 14th Mar 19
Tax Avoidance Bills Sent to Thousands of Workers - 14th Mar 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019

UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030

Economics / Demographics Aug 02, 2010 - 12:27 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhilst Britain is rarely if ever at the top of the various quality of life statistics such as economic growth, average earnings, disposable incomes, living space, healthcare services, pensions, personal freedoms and education. However when taken as a whole package, Britain remains one of the worlds most civilised countries that acts as a beacon that continues to attract peoples form all over the developing and developed world, which continues to push the UK population ever higher despite many Western European countries experiencing population stagnation or even falling populations such as Germany, where in fact 1/3rd of the annual rise in Europe's population as a whole takes place in Britain.


The above immigration data illustrates that the UK experiences average net immigration of 225k per year with most immigrants from the Indian Sub continent, Eastern Europe, South Africa, Middle East and in more recent years China. Against which significant net emigration occurs to Australia, New Zealand and Canada. However official data excludes illegal immigration that averages at an estimated rate of between 20-40,000 per year thus putting added upward pressure on population growth.

Once the net birth rate of 200k at 0.33% of the population is factored into the equation, the UK population is currently increasing at an average rate of approx 425,000 per year, which targets a rise to at least 66 million from the current 62.2 million within the next 10 years. The anticipated minimum increase of 4.25 million in 10 years is equivalent to 8 large cities that are frankly not going to be built.

The existing immigration trends from immigration from Eastern Europe are likely to be supplemented further over the next 10 years as the exploding middle and upper middle classes of countries such as China, India and Brazil that number in the hundreds of millions, will use their new found wealth in significant numbers to seek to relocate to more civilised countries such as Britain, United States, Australia and Canada, though the obvious difference between the four being that Britain does not have the wide open spaces of the alternative destinations therefore even a relatively small influx from the hundreds of millions of rich migrants will significantly impact on forecast trend expectations for an increase of 4.25 million.

Further upward immigration pressure is expected to result as a consequence of the increase in the trend for illegal immigration, and refugee and asylum seekers from war torn areas of the world from a pool of some 50 million refugees. However against this the next 10 years could see over a 100 million climate change refugees from predominantly poor developing nations as a consequence of drought, famine, rising sea levels and floods that could increase the annual intake into the UK anywhere by between 40,000 and 100,000 per year, though more likely to start to materialise later in the decade.

New Government Immigration Controls

The coalition government is following along a similar path as the last Labour government by talking tough on immigration controls but likely not to deliver anything significant. The government is constrained on what it can actually do to limit immigration as it cannot affect immigration from within Europe, refugee and asylum seekers, illegal immigration many of whom are over staying students (300k student visas per year) or the bulk of wealth based migration that takes place annually. Therefore the government is focusing on capping skilled workers work permits to 24,000 a year down from approx 50,000 (plus dependants) which has resulted in much outrage from big business. At the end of the day all of the governments measures once implemented are not going to effect net immigration by more than about 10% and probably less considering the resulting increase in illegal immigration, thereby little net impact on expected immigration trend expectations.

UK Population Growth Forecast Conclusion

The assumptions being factored into the UK population growth forecast are for a natural UK population growth rate of births exceeding deaths of 0.33% per year (current 200k), coupled with net average current immigration trend of 240k per year, supplemented with climate change refugees averaging 50k per year from 2015 onwards extrapolates into the following trend forecast over the next 10 years that targets a rise from 62.2 million as of mid 2010 to 67 million by mid 2020, and should the same trend be maintained beyond 2020 then the UK population could rise to above 72 million by mid 2030. However in all probability the country will not experience the post 2020 trend due to several converging factors including political pressures, capacity constraints and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues. Which implies a tapering off of net immigration in favour of natural growth which implies a lower total of nearer 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the below graph.

The impact of an increase in UK population over the next 10 years by 7.7% is expected to continue to feed Britain's INFLATIONARY MEGA-TREND for the next decade as rising population puts extra pressure on Britains capacity constrained infrastructure, pressure on consumer and asset prices, especially house prices and associated costs as well as contributing economically to an increase in nominal GDP growth. Whilst maintaining the expected trend that UK unemployment will remain high for the duration of the next 10 years, no matter what job creation initiatives the government attempts to implement to reduce stubbornly high unemployment levels as between 70% and 80% of new jobs created will go to migrant workers as was the experience under the last Labour government.

Comments and Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21565.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-10 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and the housing market and he is the author of the NEW Inflation Mega-Trend ebook that can be downloaded for Free. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 500 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Nim
02 Aug 10, 17:08
House Prices

Hi Nadeem,

To clarify, are you saying that the population trend will lead to considerably higher house prices over the coming years? The Inflation Mega Trend Guide shows that we are in the price depression phase bar the election bounce ...

Thanks in advance! Nim


Nadeem_Walayat
02 Aug 10, 17:13
uk house prices

Hi

This analysis is part of current ongoing analysis the aim for which is to arrive at an accurate multiyear trend forecast graph hopefully within the next 6 weeks.

Many articles will flow that will reveal the trend puzzle little by little.

Best

NW


maca
24 Oct 10, 15:50
uk population

I dont believe the population stetistics for the uk. I can remeber in the 80,s the uk population was around the mid 60 million range. my asumtion is, we are already around the 70 million mark today, thats why already we are seeing signs of the uk not being able to cope with the population. So i belive in only 20 years the uk will not be such a desirable place to live. We do need to act now, just like we have egnolaged climate change.

Maca


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules