Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Santa Rally to S&P 4600+ - 28th Nov 23
Stocks and Silver Have Something to Say about Gold - 28th Nov 23
Can A Stock Market Crash Be Averted... For Now? - 28th Nov 23
Taiwan 2024 Election: Militarization or Development - 28th Nov 23
The Stock Market Trend and the Policy Behind it - 28th Nov 23
Cameco Uranium Stock Hits All-Time High - 28th Nov 23
TSLA, LRCX, TSMC Stock Earnings and Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 23
A Golden Setup: Gold Price Trend Forecast Report - 26th Nov 23
Gold Stocks Winter Seasonal Rally - 26th Nov 23
Elections in South America and Europe Reveal Backlash against Socialism - 26th Nov 23
LMT, JNJ and ASML Stock Earnings and Trend Analysis - 23rd Nov 23
When AI Hallucinates - Top AI Tech Stocks - 23rd Nov 23
Stock Market Ignoring Hawkish Fed - 23rd Nov 23
Stock Market Trend Trajectory into Year End 2023 - 22nd Nov 23
Copper/Gold Ratio: Still Counter-Cyclical - 22nd Nov 23
Learn to Use the FORCE! - How to Really Get Rich - 21st Nov 23
Quad Witching Cracks Stock Market Nuts - 18th Nov 23
Biden Bizarrely Brags About Lower Budget Deficits as US Federal Debt Skyrockets - 18th Nov 23
Silver Price Between a Rock and a Hard Place - 18th Nov 23
The Most Important Chat GPT Tech Reveal of 2023 - 18th Nov 23
AI Tech Stocks Portfolio - 9th Nov 23
Micron MU Stock Trend Analysis - 9th Nov 23
TSMC Stock Trend Analysis - 9th Nov 23
NVIDIA Stock Trend Analysis - 9th Nov 23
The “new ChatGPT” just launched - 9th Nov 23

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Will Gold Mining Stocks Look Past Q3?

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023 Oct 27, 2023 - 11:58 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Commodities

Gold mining stock charts have not yet confirmed a sustainable rally, and Q3 fundamentals may be a headwind

We have used this daily chart of the gold stock ETF, GDX in written and video updates to keep NFTRH subscribers apprised of the progress of the bounce from the early October low (after previously using the chart to manage the long correction that began with the May double top).

Let’s update the daily technical situation by noting that the GDX rally has halted where it should have halted, as we’ve expected resistance at or below the 200 day moving average (30.49) and/or clear visual resistance at 30. The pullback is in progress and has done a good thing by filling the upper gap as it grinds and tests the 50 day moving average. All normal.


Also normal would be a further drop to fill the lower gap and test the 26.60 area to either confirm that the October 2nd breakdown was a false one (bear trap) or a scout for perhaps one final drop to make a bottom. Technically, it was a violation of the March low, which implies bearish, but that is exactly why it could have been a bear trap. False breakdowns are a ‘thing’ in TA.

The sentiment and oversold conditions at the early October low were powerful enough to spring a strong rebound or even to end the bear phase in force since May. The break above the top of the falling wedge on the chart above was a positive, as a falling wedge in this case is a massive bull flag. However, I regard falling and rising wedges among the less reliable patterns in TA. So there’s your caveat.

On the plus side, the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index shows a still deeply oversold condition. When the BPGDM 20 month EMA hits lows as it did a few weeks ago it tends to spring back much harder than it has currently. This implies that there is more fuel to the rally from this perspective.

There are a couple concerning signals in play that will remain proprietary to NFTRH for review this weekend. But here is one that conventional gold mining analysts should be considering. We first noted this in NFTRH a few weeks ago. The Gold/Oil ratio (GOR) was negative for the entirety of the Q3 period that is about to be reported this earnings season. Crude Oil/Energy is a large factor in mining costs and the miners’ product under-performed in Q3. The questions now are…

  • To what degree does the ratio impact the miners’ bottom lines and has the impact been factored?
  • Will the market be smart enough to look ahead, rather than react to what is already behind?

If the market is looking ahead it sees the GOR breaking the downtrend and turning up. The GOR is not nearly a comprehensive fundamental indicator for gold mining stocks. But it is a very primary one, and if this breakout continues mining operational fundamentals will improve nicely.

Bottom Line

As the technical situation stalls where it is supposed to stall, a still deeply depressed sector is not carrying much froth, which is contrary positive. The short-term technical situation is stalled after all, not broken.

However, the sector has been fairly ‘anti-USD’ and painted more often than not with the brush that paints commodities. Again, we are managing signals in play that are concerning for the anti-USD/inflation trades. But for the purposes of this article, note that the techncials are at a decision point while the fundamentals (including and beyond the GOR) make moves to improve. When viewing the macro funda, there is a whole range of items that need to be considered and factored, which we do in weekly reports and NFTRH+ updates.

That said, watch this earnings season closely. If the sector bulls (first objective: take out the SMA 200 on GDX) it could be looking ahead to the improving macro I see for 2024, and if it puts on a final decline – and the fundamentals continue to improve – we’ll have a table pounder of a buying opportunity. That opportunity would come at the expense of those who’ve been guided by, and acted upon improper fundamental analysis not only since 2020, but on the long inflationary phase from 2003 to 2023.

To the surprise of most, the gold mining sector will become something special only when the Inflation > Disinflation/Goldilocks progression we are currently experiencing morphs to a deflation scare. And if the Fed’s hands are still tied and it cannot or will not effectively commit inflationary bailouts of bubble assets once again, so much the better for the long-term health of the gold mining sector.

For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed interim market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. You can also keep up to date with actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar. Follow via Twitter ;@NFTRHgt.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2023 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in