Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

U.S. Dollar Rally Lacks Conviction

Currencies / US Dollar Apr 08, 2009 - 02:13 AM GMT

By: ForexPros

Currencies Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe USD held gains today as risk-aversion in equities prompted dollar-buying pushing the majors into key S/R at the start of the day. Although the Greenback is higher across the board today volumes were lighter and traders noted quality buying of the majors into the lows. Confirmed sovereign and semi-official names were seen buying EURO and GBP on the dips holding those pairs off their early New York lows.


GBP low prints at 1.4580 was not challenged in New York today and the rate lifted to a two-pip high at 1.4780 before settling back to the 1.4720 area; traders note stops in-range above the 1.4720 area seen as daily resistance and with the rate holding gains from the start of New York traders are expecting further gains overnight despite weakness in equities seen to start the week.

EURO low prints overnight at 1.3226 held in two-way action with the rate lifting to 1.3280 area before settling back around the 1.3250 area; traders note large names and official interest on the dip under the 1.3250 area with more bids said to be ready on any test of the 1.3220 area overnight. EURO is holding firm above the 100 bar MA which is a strong technical signal to most chart watchers.

USD/JPY was unable to extend the Monday rally with a high print at 101.12 overnight; lows were not challenged at the 99.84 area in New York but the rate is attracting bids on dips. Ending the day around the 100.35 area traders note that the rate is likely to suffer a correction after almost no selling seen on the run-up to the 101.50 area but heavy offers seen yesterday above 101.00; possibly the late longs are system traders and momentum accounts.

USD/CHF is holding the 1.1400 handle after dropping to the 1.1380 area during New York trade; low prints at 1.1344 failed to trigger stops rumored to be resting around the 1.1320 area but traders expect a test of the lows overnight.

USD/CAD failed to hold above the 1.2400 handle after scoring highs in New York at the 1.2486 area in early trade; low prints are still 1.2329 missing stops around the 1.2320 area and the rate closes around the 1.2370 area.

Across the board the USD rally today has failed to extend gains suggesting that despite risk-aversion trade today this firmness is likely a corrective rally rather than the start of a move higher. Although many traders remain bullish USD for the near-term the rallies seem to lack conviction; further strength is likely to be offered and aggressive traders need to see this rally as a selling opportunity. Look for the USD to remain two-way overnight with any strength to be on light volume and holding under resistance. With a light economic calendar ahead the action should be technical for the most part.

GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5040/50, Resistance 2: 1.5000, Resistance 1: 1.4950

Latest New York: 1.4736, Support 1: 1.4650, Support 2: 1.4580, Support 3: 1.4550

Comments

Rate falls through stops layered under the 1.4650 area for lows on support at 1.4580; pullback being bought by large names traders say. Aggressive traders can look to re-set longs on the dip; stops above the market from late shorts around 1.4720 area cleared today. Traders note support is likely firm at the 1.4450 area as expected. Close over 1.4900 argues for further gains but tech resistance is firm ahead of 1.5000. Overhead target of the 1.5000 area likely to trade but expect pressure. Traders feel the 23-year lows will likely remain secure. The shorts may have lost control of the market above the 1.4440 area now and if that is the case a test of the 1.5000 area is almost a done-deal. Traders report stops in-range adding for two-way action.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

5:30am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y

EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3520, Resistance 2: 1.3480, Resistance 1: 1.3420

Latest New York: 1.3275, Support 1: 1.3220, Support 2: 1.3180, Support 3: 1.3150

Comments

ate consolidates but is capped ahead of 1.3580 with stops likely above 1.3600 now; pullback a buying opportunity and expect a brief dip. Rate is solid above the 100 day MA. Foothold over the 1.3500 handle needed to extend to the upside. Support is solid under 1.3330 area. Rate likely has stops building in both directions; Action remains two-way; any move lower is likely supported on dips. Overhead resistance at 1.3330/50 area back in play as initial support expected fails. Aggressive traders can ADD on a dip. Possibly more official and semi-official bids overnight with traders noting Asian names on the bid. Long-term bulls are likely still in control of the market and this significant pullback is a buying opportunity in my view.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

2:00am EUR German Trade Balance

2:45am EUR French Trade Balance

6:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m

Analysis by: http://www.Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Forexpros offers the most definitive Forex portal on the web. It contains industry leading market analysis, up-to-the minute news and advanced trading
tools which provides brokers, traders and everyone involved in the financial market with an all-round guide to Forex.

Copyright © 2009 by ForexPros.com All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

ForexPros Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in