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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Commodities Trading

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Gold, Oil, CRB, Bonds - Beware The Bearish Rising Wedge / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Rambus_Chartology

In this report I would like to show you a chart pattern that seems to be showing up in a lot of different area’s of the markets, in particular the commodities complex. We looked at some of them in the last Weekend Report which were maturing, but in some cases hadn’t broken down yet. The chart pattern I’m referring to is the bearish rising wedge.

Some of the bearish rising wedges have a common theme which is the late 2015 low, when commodities and the PM complex finally bottomed out after that massive impulse move down. At a minimum the price objective for a rising or falling wedge is the first reversal point in which the wedge began to build out. Prices can go much lower, but the first reversal point is a good first price objective.

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Commodities

Tuesday, March 07, 2017

Chartology of the Commodities: The Inflation/Deflation Barometer / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Rambus_Chartology

One of the biggest questions investors have is what type of environment are stocks and the economy in, deflation or inflation? Knowing the answer to that question can give you a heads up on what different sectors to invest in and what sectors to stay away from. Tonight I would like to update some of the different commodities indexes to see if they can give us any clues on which way the deflationary or inflationary pendulum is swinging. Commodities are often an under analysed asset class as compared to Stocks and Bonds. However they are the nuts and bolts , the real stuff supporting human existence.

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Commodities

Monday, February 20, 2017

Headwinds Continue for Commodities with Rising US Dollar / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

Recent pro-US rhetoric from the current administration is only adding to an existing multi-year renewed strength of the US dollar.

The chant of "USA first" has only been the last of the drivers to push the greenback higher.

Some of the other factors have been unemployment, which has reached a milestone at 4.8 percent, the second lowest level since 2006.

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Commodities

Thursday, January 05, 2017

The Rising U.S. Dollar and the Impact on Commodities / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

The FOMC has raised its benchmark interest rate up for the second time since the recession of 2008 and 2009. And as the U.S. is the only G8 country, over the last eight years, to start increasing its rate, there is little to no competition for the currency.

The impact of a raising currency are many.

On the plus side, it creates higher demand for U.S. Treasuries, lower borrowing costs for the Federal government and foreign demand for U.S. assets (including stocks).

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 03, 2017

Commodities: New Year's Promises Vs. Elliott Wave Patterns / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

2011, 2014, and 2016: The year's performance has consistently followed its Elliott wave script

It's that time of year again, when before us an entirely new blank slate is laid, which we eagerly fill with promises of better health, habits, and life choices.

But, according to Statisticsbrain.com, only 8% of people successfully carry through with their New Year's resolutions -- or as I like to call them, Maybe-lutions.

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Commodities

Monday, October 03, 2016

Get Free Commodity Market Forecasts! / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

Dear trader,

This week our friends over at Elliott Wave International are hosting a free online event exclusively for commodity traders!

For 5 opportunity-filled days -- at ZERO cost to you -- you will enjoy premium video forecasts from one of the world's foremost Elliott wave experts, Jeffrey Kennedy. Each video gives you real-time analysis, charts, forecasts and actionable trading ideas and tips to help you find the best commodity opportunities.

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Commodities

Friday, July 29, 2016

2016: Current Gold and Commodity Market Themes / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Gary_Tanashian

A year ago almost to the day we began tracking a ‘Macrocosmic’ theme that would eventually see gold bottom and rise vs. stocks and bonds in 2016, joining its bullish status vs. commodities, which had been in place since 2014.

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Commodities

Friday, June 17, 2016

Inflation, Deflation & Associated Trading Prospects / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Gary_Tanashian

Recently I have gotten wordy about the decline in ‘inflation expectations’ beginning on June 2, right on through yesterday’s update of the TIP-TLT ratio and TLT in essence, attaining their targets.  The implication would be that the mini deflation whiff is coming to its limits.

As often happens at potential limit points, the market’s crosscurrents are strong.  As noted yesterday, USD, gold, silver and the gold miners all did in-day reversals as items that had been risk ‘off’ got hammered.  ‘What, USD and gold in lockstep?  What is the meaning of this?!?’ think inflationists. See yesterday’s in-day post Strange Bedfellows.

The meaning is that these items, along with the VIX and US Treasury bonds have been plays for a risk ‘off’ market as it got the jitters over deflation.  Gold miners had been, however fleetingly, rising in line with their counter-cyclical fundamentals and this is the mirror image to the reasons why I so often parrot that if you are a gold miner bull, realize that fundamentally at least, the sector is done no favors in an inflationary backdrop (price, for long stretches of time, can be something else all together).

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Commodities

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Think Beyond Oil And Gold: Interview With Mike 'Mish' Shedlock / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Mike_Shedlock

This past week I was interviewed by James Stafford at Oilprice.com.

We discussed, oil, gold, lithium, other natural resources, global opportunities, and even biotech plays.

Here is the full interview, conducted several days ago.

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Commodities

Monday, May 09, 2016

Commodities Overtake Stocks and Bonds with Best Rally Since 2010! / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Traders who follow the price of gold and silver, should keep an eye out on the U.S. dollar index. The dollar has been within a trading range for more than a year. During December of 2015, the dollar rose to test the highs at 100, however, since February of 2016, the dollar has been in a downtrend, as shown in the chart below.

The FED has reduced the expectations of a rate hike in 2016 from one full percentage point, in the beginning of the year, to a half percent and perhaps to none at all. However, my expectation is that the FED may have to start rolling back this increase before the end of 2016.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 05, 2016

Investing After the Global Commodities Super-Cycle / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Dan_Steinbock

While cyclical challenges remain tough in global commodities, structural realities look more tolerable.

According to conventional wisdom, the challenges of global commodities can be attributed to China’s slowdown and poor growth prospects. Advanced economies are not immune. In the US, just two commodity-related sectors – oil and gas, as well as metals and steel – accounted for more than half of the defaults in 2015.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

CRB, Gold, Oil, Cotton, Coffee - 7 Must See Commodities Charts / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: InvestingHaven

Commodities are in a positive cycle. It is too early to tell whether the long term bear market is over, but short and medium term momentum is clearly in favor of commodity bulls.

In this article, we revise 7 must-see charts covering the commodities complex, which reveal current and future investment opportunities.

First, the CRB commodoties index bottomed in January of this year. At that point in time, sentiment was even worse than during the depth of the 2008 financial crisis. The first chart shows how bad sentiment was in the last months of 2015 / early January 2016, see lower pane. Consequently, the upside potential is enormous as commodities are currently nowhere near positive sentiment levels.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 17, 2016

CRB, Gold, The Fed has Unleashed Inflation / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Graham_Summers

And it wants more of it.

From mid-2014 until early 2016, commodities as an asset class, collapsed some 45%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, March 09, 2016

Commodities Jump on US Dollar Weakness / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

With the U.S. dollar drifting lower over the past four months, most commodities are feeling a strong tailwind blowing their way.

Dollar bulls were hoping for a more aggressive program of interest rate increases, but instead the Fed dialed-back the number from four to two this year. The US$ pulled away from its high of $100.60 and formed a series of lower levels.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

WTIC Crude Oil and Silver Charts / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Gary_Savage

At 63% below the 200 week moving average the price of oil has gone "parabolic" to the downside. Silver is due for an intermediate degree rally. Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, January 05, 2016

DJ-UBS Forecast: Can it get worse in 2016 for Commodities? / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Submissions

Ken Ticehurst writes: The commodities complex ended 2015 with another poor year, the Dow Jones Commodity Index ended down 25%. Unfortunately as far as we are concerned the downtrend is set to continue for the foreseeable future there appears very little evidence of a capitulation or a bottom forming.

We are currently in a small oversold bounce which we do not expect to last too long as the index itself has spent the last few months in a controlled descent. Rather than an uncontrolled crash the index has moved steadily lower which can sometimes indicate a lower for longer pattern is unfolding.

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Commodities

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Plunging Commodities Interfere With The New World Order / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Anglo American, a British company, and one of the world’s biggest miners, and a ‘producer’ (actually just a miner, how did those two terms ever get mixed up?!) of platinum (world no. 1), diamonds, copper, nickel, iron ore and coal, said today it would scrap dividends AND fire 85,000 of it 135,000 global workforce (that’s 63%!).

Anglo is just the first in a long litany line we’ll see going forward. Commodities ‘producers’ are being completely wiped out, hammered, killed, murdered. They’ve been able to hedge their downside risks so far, but now find they can’t even afford the price of the hedges (insurance) anymore. And then there’s all the banks and funds that financed them.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, November 23, 2015

US Dollar, CRB, Oil, Gas, Copper and Gold - The Chartology of Deflation / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Rambus_Chartology

About a month or so ago I started posting regularly on the possible inflection point I was seeing in regards to the deflationary trend that has been on going since 2011. As you know stocks move from a reversal or consolidation pattern in an impulse move which is much different than a sideways chopping action of a reversal or consolidation pattern. Impulse moves are the stored up energy that is released once a reversal or consolidation pattern is finished doing its job. About four weeks ago it looked like the most recent consolidation phase was coming to an end which would then leave the door opened to an impulse move.

At the first writing of the possible inflection point the US dollar was still trading within the confines of its possible bullish falling wedge which I viewed as a consolidation pattern to the upside. Shortly after that first post on the possible inflection point the US dollar broke out of its bullish falling wedge and is now approaching its previous high just above 100 or so. The US dollar is the key driver for this deflationary spiral that has been in place for over four years now with no light at the end of the tunnel for the commodities complex yet.

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Commodities

Friday, November 13, 2015

Crude Oil and Gold Daily Cycles / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Gary_Savage

Oil has confirmed a failed daily cycle. That's not good news and probably means the 3 year cycle low will now get stretched out to early spring.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, October 01, 2015

NIRP, its Likelihood and Effect on Commodities / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Alasdair_Macleod

In last week's article I pointed out that negative interest rates should lead to a general shift in consumer preferences from money towards essential goods. Central bankers may wish for this outcome on a controlled basis to allow them to hit their price inflation targets, and this could happen quite quickly. If people face a tax on their cash and bank deposits, which is what a negative interest rate amounts to, they will simply reduce these balances, artificially boosting demand.

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