Category: Stock Market 2023
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, January 16, 2023
Stock Market SEASONAL ANALYSIS Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.
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Sunday, January 15, 2023
Stock Market Q1 and Q2 Pull Back Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Donald_W_Dony
This report is our fifth article since September about the maturing bull market and the multiple road signs that are developing.
One of the signs of a maturing economy is the rise in inflation. As the economy continues to expand, there is ongoing pressure for goods and services. Employment is usually at a record high and consumer spending continues to rise (as they both are now).
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Wednesday, January 11, 2023
The Perfect Storm For Stock Market Investors To Lose Big In 2023 Is Upon Us, Unless… / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week I rang the bell telling investors and traders to wake up and smell the hot coffee because 2023 is going to be a life-changing year, and likely, not for the better.
The 30,000-foot view of where we are in the stock market cycle is shown on my gauge.
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Wednesday, January 11, 2023
Stock Market Dialing Back Fears / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 refused a panicky decline into Powell‘s speech, and swiftly recovered on no fresh hawkish clues. Market breadth improved, and the sellers weren‘t falling over themselves. 3,910 held, and there were no tests of the bottom border of the support zone at 3,895. While real assets didn‘t spurt to the upside yesterday, they‘re likely to catch up today and tomorrow.
Tomorrow, because after initial turbulence over CPI (and especially core CPI!) not declining as fast as the market (and the central bank!) wishes with regard to Fed pivot dreams, I think the positive market reaction to a still reasonably fast declining inflation figure, would prevail (6.6 – 6.7% is enough) – and that we would continue on the march to making a Jan top. Remaining nimble is the name of the game!
Monday, January 09, 2023
Are Stocks In a New Uptrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
On Friday the S&P 500 was the highest since mid-December - will the short-term uptrend continue?
The S&P 500 index gained 2.28% on Friday, as investors reacted to better-than-expected monthly jobs data release. The broad stock market’s gauge broke above its recent trading range and it went the highest since December 15, as the daily high was at 3,906.19.
The broad stock market is expected to open 0.5% higher this morning, so stock prices will likely extend their short-term advance. There may be a selling pressure and some profit-taking action as the market gets closer to the resistance level of around 3,920-3,930, marked by the previous local lows, as we can see on the daily chart:
Friday, January 06, 2023
How High Could the Impossible Stocks Bull Market Fly / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Temperate CPI sends stocks soaring to the moon with Fridays close of 3992 literally within touching distance of breaking above 4000. A week ago I wrote - "there may be more sideways to down price action given the drags we have this week with the Mid-terms and the 10th of November CPI release that could hold stocks back until after their conclusion. Nevertheless as long as the 3620 low holds then the pattern remains in tact for an eventual break higher of 3920 to target 4000+ where I would expect the S&P to achieve 4100 by Christmas and by the time this rally is done we may even see a break above 4300."
And so as soon as the CPI dark clouds were lifted the stock market soared, though you would not think it had if you read or watched any of the usual suspects, that's tweeters, youtubers, and the blogosfear. Not a bull in sight! Were they all caught with their short pants down? Glum faces all round! A collective case of WTH is going on! Confounded disbelief which I suspect will only lift towards the end of this rally when the herd FOMO's into the top similar to August.
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Sunday, January 01, 2023
Stock Market Trend Forecast Into End 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if someone told you where the Dow stocks index will be trading at in 3 months time and by that time the index was within 1% of where it was forecast it would be. How much would you value such analysis, furthermore without the benefit of hindsight that forecast did not just end there but continued on for a further whole year, what's that worth? Given that many so called analysts can't even go beyond a trading day.
Well that is what you are going to be in receipt of in this the final part of my 6 part series that concludes in a detailed Dow stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023 which my Patrons gained access to on 5th October 2022, that forecast that the Dow by now would be trading at 32,850 against actual last close of 33,147 (30th of December 2022), which represents a less than 1% deviation against the trend forecast.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast to December 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
What if someone told you where the Dow stocks index will be trading at in 3 months time and by that time the index was within 1% of where it was forecast it would be. How much would you value such analysis, furthermore without the benefit of hindsight that forecast did not just end there but continued on for a further whole year, what's that worth? Given that many so called analysts can't even go beyond a trading day.
Well that is what you are going to be in receipt of in this the final part of my 6 part series that concludes in a detailed Dow stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023 which my Patrons gained access to on 5th October 2022, that forecast that the Dow by now would be trading at 32,850 against actual last close of 33,147 (30th of December 2022), which represents a less than 1% deviation against the trend forecast.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Stock Market and 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yields - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus view is that falling bond yields are good for stocks. However that is not accurate, what stocks like is mildly falling OR rising bond yields. What stocks do not like is what we have witnessed since the start of the year, that is fast moving bond yields as the bond bubble burst in the wake of HIGH INFLATION.
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Friday, December 30, 2022
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my extensive analysis of September 2021 this indicator warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k, the low to date has been 28.7k! For the bull market proper to resume this indicator needs trade above the thick black line, until then the market remains in no mans land of trading within range with the risks of worse to come. Most probable is the market trades in a range i.e. to trade above the blue dotted line, until the market has worked through it's bear phase. At this point I am discounting a re-run of 2008, as so far the indicator is showing a tendency to remain above the grey line, however this also implies that the bull market proper could be as much as a year away! In terms of price, the Dow is not going to see a new all time high anytime soon, probably beyond the end of 2023.
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Thursday, December 29, 2022
How Stocks Bear Markets DIE! Technical Trend Analysis Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow is bouncing off a new bear market low of 28,700 having already broken above the preceding low of 29.7k that targets resistance at 31k. However given the degree of momentum behind this rally the Dow could easily continue climbing to target 32k which would represent a sizeable 12% advance in what I would consider as being a sub-swing i.e. not the whole move which implies that this rally that apparently is being dismissed by most as bear market rally could eventually retrace the whole disown move from the 34k high. But for now the Dow 1st targets 31k and then 32k before it is likely to correct towards 30.5k before RESUMING it's bull run.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast for 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The character of this bear market has been changing since the June low, first came the break above 33.3k into the August FOMO peak. and then came the decline to 28.7k that whilst a new bear market low was weak in trend channel terms.
so what is going on?
ACCUMULATION is what's going on, Accumulating since the June low. It should be fairly obvious that there is a lot of buying gone on and market manipulation so as to allow it to happen. It's as though the wolfs of wall street are leading the retail investor lambs to slaughter as the retail crowd are dealt hammer blows in either direction aimed at fleecing them of their wealth.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast for 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The character of this bear market has been changing since the June low, first came the break above 33.3k into the August FOMO peak. and then came the decline to 28.7k that whilst a new bear market low was weak in trend channel terms.
so what is going on?
ACCUMULATION is what's going on, Accumulating since the June low. It should be fairly obvious that there is a lot of buying gone on and market manipulation so as to allow it to happen. It's as though the wolfs of wall street are leading the retail investor lambs to slaughter as the retail crowd are dealt hammer blows in either direction aimed at fleecing them of their wealth.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 26, 2022
How Stocks Bear Markets DIE! Technical Trend Analysis Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
The Dow is bouncing off a new bear market low of 28,700 having already broken above the preceding low of 29.7k that targets resistance at 31k. However given the degree of momentum behind this rally the Dow could easily continue climbing to target 32k which would represent a sizeable 12% advance in what I would consider as being a sub-swing i.e. not the whole move which implies that this rally that apparently is being dismissed by most as bear market rally could eventually retrace the whole disown move from the 34k high. But for now the Dow 1st targets 31k and then 32k before it is likely to correct towards 30.5k before RESUMING it's bull run.
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Monday, December 26, 2022
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Want to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
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Friday, December 23, 2022
TESLA MARGIN CALL PANIC - Margin Debt Analysis - Stock Market Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Over leveraged investors in Tesla are learning a painful lesson right now as they are getting kicked out of their positions right at the bottom!
Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators start to feel the pain of holding losing positions and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or are forced to close their losing trades due to failure to meet margin calls, in which respect this indicator proved very useful in flagging the prospects for a bear market long before it materialised as stock prices trended higher on petrol fumes as the fuel tank was empty.
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Tuesday, December 20, 2022
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Firstly this video is an excerpt of my mega-analysis that concludes in a detailed stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023, that was first made available to patrons who support my work, so for immediate first access to all of my analysis then do consider becoming a patron from supporting my work for just 4 bucks for month, lock it in now as it is set to rise to 5 bucks per month in the new year.
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Sunday, December 18, 2022
Stocks and the US Presidential Election Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is what I concluded a year ago in my September 2021 analysis -
So the election year cycle favours a strong up year as Uncle Biden prints plenty of dollars for everyone to party, which is basically what we are experiencing. Though next year that Democrat performance slumps to just +0.6%! Which suggests this rally is a time to take profits and de risk, because 2022 according to the Presidential cycle could be weak!
So far so good, what next? We'll for 8 straight decades stock market indices such as the Dow and S&P have headed higher after the ,mid-terms with the average gain being 15%.
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Saturday, December 17, 2022
Stock Market Another Fail Attempt / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Donald_W_Dony
Following the December 06, 2022, Market Minute titled "Recap of key market structure going into Q1" The benchmark equity index (S&P 500) has made another failed attempt to rise. In mid-December, the index reached the downward sloping trend at 4070 at immediately retreated.
This is the fourth failed attempt to cross the line.
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Thursday, December 15, 2022
Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus view is that falling bond yields are good for stocks. However that is not accurate, what stocks like is mildly falling OR rising bond yields. What stocks do not like is what we have witnessed since the start of the year, that is fast moving bond yields as the bond bubble burst in the wake of HIGH INFLATION.
Read full article... Read full article...