Category: Stock Market 2023
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Stock Market Santa Rally to S&P 4600+ / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day! You got access to my latest stock market brief that are usually only exclusively made available to patrons.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Can A Stock Market Crash Be Averted... For Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
It has certainly been an interesting year or so since we struck the low in October of 2022. If you remember, most were looking for the market to head considerably lower at the time. But, then again, what else is new? Most expect the market to continue linearly in whatever trend is in place at any point in time.
Yet, we were strongly suggesting that most investors begin to look upward, as we maintained that the market would rally to the 4300+ region from the 3500 region lows we expected before we bottomed. In fact, I was even outlining to members that the potential was in place to rally as high as 4505SPX off the 3500SPX region, even before we bottomed. And, amazingly, the market even exceeded my expectations by 100 points.
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Tuesday, November 28, 2023
The Stock Market Trend and the Policy Behind it / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
An excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 785 on the state of the US stock market bubble as developed and sustained by another bubble (in policy-making)
NFTRH 785 started off with a lot of opinions (based on facts and indicators) before settling in to a more normal report covering key markets as usual. Meanwhile, the opening segment is more an unvarnished screed than actual market analysis, which is NFTRH’s normal mode and which we do reliably each week.
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Wednesday, November 22, 2023
Stock Market Trend Trajectory into Year End 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Are you ready to rumble! Lets see of earnings season volatility can deliver some more buying opps in target stocks over the next couple of weeks.
Where the S&P is concerned the expectation for an early October bottom at just below 4200 was freakily ac hived in terms of price and time and as my market brief illustrated going into October.
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Stock Market SP500 Trend Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P is complying with trend forecast expectations that saw Friday's Quad Witching day end down 1.22% at 4450, where some hours before the open I commented -
"It's QUAD Witching DAY. There is a 90% probability for a STRONG DOWN DAY! Which given where the likes of Apple are perched just above support should act as a catalyst for the the sell off into October."
Whilst apparently someone called Cem Karson was eager to convince folks that a correction was 'almost impossible!'
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Stock Market SPX Bounce Underway, but Resistance Upcoming / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Gary_Tanashian
This article discusses one diverse component of the broad global markets; the US S&P 500. The market has some poor underpinnings that we routinely keep track of in NFTRH and are beyond the scope of this public article. Also beyond the scope are macro risk indicators, including the US dollar and its relationship with the Gold/Silver ratio.
Filtering all of that out, we have anticipated a seasonal bounce or rally due to market sentiment well biased to over-bearish, oversold conditions and the seasonal pattern (on average) for SPX that has turned up, as per this graphic first presented in NFTRH 779 on October 15.
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Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Stock Market Investing - Aren't We Here To Make Money? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
All I have heard over the last year is that we are about to head into a recession – an economic construct suggesting a negative market environment. And, this has kept many quite bearish of the stock market, with most looking at the rally from 3500 to 4600SPX as the market being “wrong.” Well, I have some news for you, which was well said by the legendary Jesse Livermore:
“A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.”
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Sunday, November 05, 2023
Stock Market Seasonal and Presidential Cycle Analysis, Bitcoin Final Warning! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Your analyst back from scam central (Istanbul), tourists need to factor in a getting scammed tax when visiting. Since my last article the S&P hit a low of 4333 followed by an ABC rally to a swing high of 4533, whilst a consolidation of the advance was expected, still this was more powerful than how I imagined it would play out ahead of targeting sub 4200 by Mid October and thus presents a significant deviation against my original trend forecast of some 11 months go.
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Thursday, November 02, 2023
Stock Market US Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Seem's like everyone's woken upto the importance of the US presidential election cycle. However as is the case with the seasonal pattern it is not the holy grail, has a similar 75% hit rate to the all years seasonal pattern where the real value is when one puts both together. In which respect confirms September should end DOWN, October higher whilst November and December could switch places, i.e a weak November would imply a strong December and visa versa.
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Thursday, November 02, 2023
Stock Market Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggested that after a pause in Feb the stock market should trend higher into early May for a weak May before correcting into late June follower by a strong July rally into Mid August before ending flat on the month, then followed by a weak September likely into early October that resolves in a rally into late December.
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Thursday, November 02, 2023
Stocks Are In a Rally Mode – Is This Just a Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
S&P 500 went closer to 4,300 level again – will the uptrend resume?The S&P 500 index gained 1.05% on Wednesday as it got back above the 4,200 level following FOMC monetary policy release. Recently the market kept selling-off on geopolitical uncertainty, strong U.S. dollar, among other factors. Last Friday’s low was at 4,103.78 and it was the lowest since May 12. Yesterday’s daily high was at 4,245.64.
In early October stocks were rallying from their local lows along 4,220 level and on October 17 the index reached a local high of 4,394. There’s still a lot of uncertainty about monetary policy, economic growth and geopolitics.
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Sunday, October 29, 2023
Stock Market Ready to Tumble Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Your analyst back from scam central (Istanbul), tourists need to factor in a getting scammed tax when visiting. Since my last article the S&P hit a low of 4333 followed by an ABC rally to a swing high of 4533, whilst a consolidation of the advance was expected, still this was more powerful than how I imagined it would play out ahead of targeting sub 4200 by Mid October and thus presents a significant deviation against my original trend forecast of some 11 months go.
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Thursday, October 19, 2023
Unjustified Stock Market Investors Gloom and Doom / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Stephen_McBride
I’m sensing a lot of unjustified doom and gloom from investors.
Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham recently told Bloomberg, “No one should invest in the US.”
I have great respect for the guy, but c’mon… he’s been predicting Armageddon for a decade straight.
And look at all these exciting breakthroughs going on…
Tuesday, October 17, 2023
Stock Market Earnings Season Trend Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Since the stock market topped out at 4610 the trend has been down in line with my road map of over 10 months ago!
Stock Market Analysis and Trend Forecast Oct 2022 to Dec 2023
S&P targets a trend to 4600 by Mid Summer 2023 before correcting to below 4100 by late October.
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Tuesday, October 10, 2023
The Stock Market Got It Wrong / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
As we look back upon another interesting week in the market, there are a few standout matters I would like to point out.
To begin with, I saw the following quote from an interview with well-known economist Austan Goolsbee:
“The timing of the selloff has been something of a “puzzle” given there was no major change in the Fed’s latest projections.”
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Monday, September 25, 2023
Stock Market correction full steam ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day as you get access to my latest stock market brief that was sent out to patrons Monday 25th September at 3am UK time.
Stock Market correction full steam ahead as the S&P ticks below the August low of 4340, closing Friday at 4320 thus continuing to target sub 4200 by Mid October with my pin point high probability target of 4150 now some 170 points away vs the S&P 2023 high of 4610 290 point above, thus about 60% of the correction is complete which has translated into huge price drops in target stocks from their 2023 highs such as AMD down 28%, ASML -24%, Qualcom & TSMC -23% and so on and even greater price drops in the higher risk stocks such as Roblox -46%, with even greater blood baths in the housing stocks.
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Friday, September 22, 2023
5 signs & charts for Stock Market Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
While the mainstream is hyper-focused on the Fed, Elliott wavers know:
It's not the Fed that's in the driver's seat.
Investor psychology is what's in charge. Just as it's always been.
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Tuesday, September 12, 2023
Stock Market Trend Pattern and Bond Market Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Inflation Bond Fire of the Vanities Breeds Opportunity
Fitch downgrades US Debt to AA+ prompts MSM clown narrative for triggering a rise in yields and falling stocks, there is ALWAYS a reason for why market moves, usually the same reason is used for either outcome up or down! The US debt downgrade that is the focus of MSM is a nothing burger as both rising yields and falling stocks were expected long before Fitch pressed the downgrade button as the stock market had transitioned form the topping phase off of the 4600 high set a few days ago (27th July) into a downtrend proper during August that is set to run into a window of late September to Mid October 2023 targeting a decline of at least 10%, so into and S&P range of 4180 to 4100 with many if not most target AI tech stocks set to see a decline typically by 20% off their highs, some more than others, and in fact many were already well into their downtrends coming into August such as AMD which topped at $132.5, which is why I often refer to the S&P as a red herring and caution against basing ones decisions off of the S&P, for instance there was no point waiting for S&P 4600 to trim AMD which FOMO 'd to $132.5 well over a month ago!
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Wednesday, September 06, 2023
Stock Market's Character Has Changed -- Here's How / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
We're watching the VIX or "fear index" to see what's next
Stock market investors naturally want to know the closing numbers for the main stock indexes at the end of each trading day.
Yet, it's also good to dig deeper.
Let me show you some examples of how the U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which covers near-term trends of key U.S. financial markets, does just that.
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Saturday, August 19, 2023
Stocks Bull Market Phase One End Game Sector Rotation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market ended the week at S&P 4410 off a new bull market high of 4448 against my expectations for a fuzzy week to deliver a correction this week enroute to the 4500+ final destination by late July to complete the first leg of this bull market and to herald a significant correction into October as illustrated by my original road maps -
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