Monday, October 14, 2019
Stock Market Range Bound / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.
Intermediate trend – Indecisive.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, October 14, 2019
Gold Perspective is Everything / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
Perspective is everything when it comes to the markets. It is always most important to look at the long term charts first and then work your way back to the shorter timeframes. Long term charts also show where major support and resistance resides that can have a calming affect on ones emotions when the inevitable corrections take place.
Its been several months or so since we last looked at this 30 year quarterly chart for Gold that gives us very clear roadmap of how the price action may play out over the intermediate to longer term. Looking at the massive double bottom which launched Gold’s 2000’s bull market you can see there were three quarters of price action that took place on the breakout above the double bottom trendline with the final backtest occurring during the 3rd quarter of the breakout.
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Monday, October 14, 2019
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Let’s take a look at some indicators that can come together to let us know when the next inflationary bout is in the offing.
The spread between 10yr and 2yr yields (the most commonly watched yield spread/curve) is still steepening on the short-term. Live chart available here.
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Monday, October 14, 2019
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger's take on this week's news from the financial markets informs his most recent investment decisions.
It's a funny thing that happens when the stress of financial insolvency bubbles up to the surface. Decisions once considered "routine" (like brushing one's teeth or walking one's dog) suddenly have life-or-death outcomes, complete with cold sweats, sleepless nights and self-prescribed medicinal relief. Whenever I turn on the financial news stations, such as Fox, Bloomberg or CNN, I get the impression that I am watching Kabuki theatre, with exquisitely-designed puppets playing out exquisitely crafted scripts. I am immediately faced with the ageless problem of whether or not to consider the content "news," or should I view it as simple "entertainment."
By example, the saber-rattling of the United States of America in its anti-China rhetoric is playbill material of the highest order. You have in the red corner the aging heavyweight champion, long seated on the throne of global military and economic dominance, while in the blue corner, you have the spry young contender, hungry from decades of communist suppression and poverty with a highly motivated populace and a powerful and rapidly growing military. As much as the world may loathe it, it appears that the bell is soon to sound and the battle for global supremacy is about to begin.
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Monday, October 14, 2019
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up MoneyMetals.com columnist and Senior Analyst at The Morgan Report David Smith joins me for another wonderful conversation on why he thinks the recent correction in metals is creating what may be the last great buying opportunity in the sector, and also why he believes those who do buy should be thinking insurance first and profit second. So be sure to stick around for my conversation with David Smith, coming up after this week’s market update.
As the Federal Reserve prepares more stimulus injections into the financial system, investors continue to flip back and forth from favoring safe haven assets one week to growth stories another. This week markets swung back toward growth, perhaps in hopes of progress on U.S.-China trade talks.
Global equity markets got a bounce mid-week. Industrial commodities including copper and platinum group metals also made gains. Bonds, meanwhile, sold off, and gold and silver struggled to hold significant near-term technical levels.
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Sunday, October 13, 2019
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ELLIOTT WAVES
My analysis of Feb 2019 concluded in expectations for a 5 wave bull run during 2019 targeting new all time highs of around 28k.
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Sunday, October 13, 2019
The Most Successful IPOs Have This One Thing in Common / Companies / IPOs
By: Stephen_McBride
Justin Spittler : Never chase a stock.
That’s the #1 mistake of rookie investors. They fall in love with a stock that has already risen a lot, overpay for it, then end up regretting it.
True pros do the opposite.
They’re patient. They lie in wait, wait for a stock to “come to them”, then buy on a “dip.”
“Don’t chase stocks” is sound advice 95% of the time. But there’s a special kind of stock you absolutely should chase.
In fact, you’re better off buying these special stocks after a 20% or 30% pop than buying after a big selloff.
I know it sounds crazy. It goes against everything most investors have been taught. But I have mountains of data to prove it.
Sunday, October 13, 2019
Fed Grows Concerned - Should Gold Investors Do the Same? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed released the minutes from its last meeting yesterday. What can we learn from the new light they shine on the U.S. monetary policy? How will it affect the gold market?
Minutes Show That FOMC Members Are More Worried Now
The minutes from the Sep FOMC meeting show that the Fed is more worried about the economy. The Committee members noted that downside risks had become more pronounced due to the increased trade conflicts, more intensified geopolitical uncertainty, and more fragile prospects for global and domestic economic growth:
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Sunday, October 13, 2019
Precious Metals & Stock Market VIX Are Set To Launch Dramatically Higher / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent rotation in the US stock market and US major indexes have set up a very interesting pattern in the Metals and VIX charts. Our researchers believe precious metals, Gold and Silver, are setting up a new momentum base/bottom and are beginning an early stage bullish price rally that may surprise many traders. If you have not been following our research, please take a minute to read these past research posts:
September 24, 2019: IS SILVER ABOUT TO BECOME THE SUPER-HERO OF PRECIOUS METALS?
September 19, 2019: PRECIOUS METALS SETTING UP ANOTHER MOMENTUM BASE/BOTTOM
Our researchers believe the bottom in Metals has already set up on October 1, 2019. This setup aligns with our earlier analysis that a new bullish price leg is setting up that will propel Gold to levels above $1600 before the end of November – possibly resulting in a rally that attempts to breach the $1700 price level.
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Sunday, October 13, 2019
Discovery Sport EGR Valve Gasket Problems - Land Rover Dealer Fix / ConsumerWatch / Land Rover
By: HGR
As soon as my Discovery Sports 3 manufacturer warranty is up, up pops the dreaded yellow engine management warning light prompting a visit to the local land rover dealer for a diagnoses. Apparently the EGR Valve is failing hence prompting the engine warning light to come on. EGR or Exhaust Gas Recirculation Valves are typically supposed to last 10 years or 100,000 miles, so why is it failing so early in a Discovery Sport? Only 3 years old and 18,000 miles? Find out of what's likely in store for your Discovery Sport once it passes the 3 year mark and the probable solution.
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Saturday, October 12, 2019
Stock Market US Presidential Cycle - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Presidential cycle pattern has continued to prove REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as the charts over the past 15 months illustrate, where the basic pattern for the US Presidential cycle is for a strong election year and post election year, followed by weak Mid-term then a strong pre-election year.
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Saturday, October 12, 2019
Social Security Is Screwing Millennials / Politics / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
Social Security is a textbook illustration of how government programs go off the rails.It had a noble goal: to help elderly and disabled Americans, who can’t work, maintain a minimal, dignified living standard.
Back then, most people either died before reaching that point or didn’t live long after it. Social Security was never intended to do what we now expect, i.e., be the primary incom source for most Americans during a decade or more of retirement.
Life expectancy when Social Security began was around 56. The designers made 65 the full retirement age because it was well past normal life expectancy.
No one foresaw the various medical and technological advances that let more people reach that age and a great deal more, or the giant baby boom that would occur after World War II, or the sharp drop in birth rates in the 1960s, thanks to artificial birth control.
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Saturday, October 12, 2019
Gold Gifts Traders With Another Rotation Below $1500 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Positive expectations related to the US/China trades negotiations on October 10th prompted a moderately strong upside move in the US major indexes and the stock market.
Additionally, the precious metals fell in correlation to the upside move in the US stock market and presented another opportunity for skilled technical traders to look for entries below $1500 in Gold and below $17.75 in Silver.
We can’t stress the importance of this critical $1500 price level in Gold as a key level for all traders to watch. It has continued to provide key support for Gold since the price rally that initiated in late April 2019. We believe this level will act as a relatively strong price “floor” going forward and any price activity below $1500 could represent a very opportunistic entry area for skilled traders.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
US Dollar Index Trend Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A good technical starting point would be a quick look at the prospects for the US Dollar.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
China Golden Week Sales Exceed Expectations / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
In contrast to gloomy international projections, economic realities suggest that China’s Golden Week may have exceeded expectations.I spent China’s 70-year National Day festivities in Shanghai, China's global financial hub, and Guangzhou, the global trade hub of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. In both, China’s massive transition toward consumption and innovation is now an increasing reality.
Due to US tariff wars, Chinese mass consumers – like their peers in the United States, Europe and Japan – are cost-conscious, increasingly discriminate and sophisticated in their spending. Indeed, sales of gold jewelry boomed during the holidays, fueled by gold prices, holiday festivities and the wedding season.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
Stock Market Short-term Consolidation Does Not change Secular Bullish Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
The on-again, off-again, on-again Trump trade war with China coupled with weakening signs of U.S. economic growth has placed the S&P 500 into another multi-month consolidation.
Stocks continue to gyrate from mid-year as news of a possible trade deal appears to solidify only to have a reverse decision suddenly develop.
This whip-sawing creates uncertainty among traders. As such, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average has remained in a 10% trading band over the last six months, whereas the Canadian TSX has been held in a tighter 6% trading range (Chart 1).
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Friday, October 11, 2019
The Allure of Upswings in Silver Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The entire precious metals sector rallied yesterday, but the upswing was particularly visible in case of silver and (especially) mining stocks. Both: silver, and miners moved to new October highs. Silver’s breakout was tiny, but miners rallied relatively significantly and that’s the part of the current long trade that’s particularly profitable. Of course, these profits are near to nothing compared to what’s likely ahead in case of the big short trade that we plan to profit on in the following months, but they add their part to the overall results. Please note that a small long position here also means staying temporarily out of the short position, which brings the likelihood of re-entering them at higher prices.
Let’s take a closer look at what happened.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
US Housing Market 2018-2019 and 2006-2007: Similarities & Differences / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dan_Amerman
As can be seen in the graph below, there is an almost uncanny similarity between housing prices at the 2006-2007 peak, and current home prices.
The biggest difference is that current home prices are substantially higher. Should we be worried about a repeat scenario - and another six year decline in home values?
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Friday, October 11, 2019
Now Is the Time to Load Up on 5G Stocks / Companies / Internet
By: Stephen_McBride
An unusual race recently took place at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.Former NFL star Keyshawn Johnson lined up at the 40 yard line...
While an average guy named Ricky stood in the end zone.
Keyshawn’s challenge was to run 40 yards faster than Ricky could download an episode of HBO’s Hard Knocks to his smartphone.
Ricky won. He downloaded the hour-long show in 3.6 seconds.
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Friday, October 11, 2019
Why the Law Can’t Protect Your Money / Personal_Finance / Scams
By: Rodney_Johnson
I’m tired of the impeachment talk and it hasn’t really started yet. With the House working on impeachment inquiries in several committees, we’ll get a healthy dose of political doublespeak from everyone involved for at least the rest of this year. It’s already started to crowd other stories out of the news cycle. But we have to pay attention, because other things are happening that will directly affect us in the months and years to come.
We got a glimpse of our financial future at the end of last week when the first reports about Puerto Rico’s proposed financial settlement came to light. It’s not finished, but we know two things: The law will be ignored, and investors will get crushed.
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