Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, January 06, 2011
Destruction of the U.S. Dollar, The Real Reason Paul Volcker Wants Out / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jeff_Berwick
The news that Paul Volcker plans to step down from a "panel of experts" advising Barack Obama today will likely whip market participants into a bit of a frenzy analyzing what this could possibly mean.
But, the problem with their conclusions will be that they are starting from an incorrect premise. The great majority of market participants believe that Paul Volcker was responsible for ending the inflation of the 1970s. And, as usual, the great majority of market participants are wrong.
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Thursday, January 06, 2011
Euro Currency New Year, New Challenges / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
One interesting aspect of todays blow out +297K rise in Dec ADP is the cautious interpretations circulated for Fridays release of Dec Nonfarm payrolls. Recall the disappointing 39K increase in Nov payrolls from +172 in Oct despite the unexpectedly strong +92K ADP in Nov. Nonetheless, both the US dollar and 10 year yields are rallying across the board of further growth recovery in the US. Noting that Fed Chairman Bernanke will testify to Congress 1 hour after Friday's jobs report, we would expect the Chairman to reiterate the case for buying the entire $600 bln in QE2 even in the event that Dec payrolls show a blowout number with similar proportions to today's ADP (above 220K-250K). Yet despite those reiterations of QE2, bond yields will likely hold on to their upward trajectory eyeing 3.80% before ultimately regaining 4.10-15% in late Q1, which should help support USD vs. EUR, GBP and JPY.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Aussie Dollar, the Japanese Yen, Euro and Cable all have a different story to tell / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Bari_Baig
First up we look at USD/JPY: The economic data out from Japan was encouraging today as Industrial production as well as retail sales both exceeded the streets guesstimates. This further put a bid on Japanese Yen and prices tumbled to just below 82. This is the region where Bank of Japan first started to tout that it would intervene in the market and as we have said before now that BoJ has made its mark on the market by actually intervening therefore it is high time that it should continue to weaken Yen. We went buyers of the pair at 82 flat and we intend on holding the position. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 23, 2010
The Faults of Fractional Reserve Banking / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Thorsten_Polleit
In a November 1, 2010, blog post titled "Could the World Go Back to the Gold Standard?," Martin Wolf, the Financial Times chief economics commentator, comes to the conclusion that "we cannot and will not go back to the gold standard."
Among a number of mainstream-economics arguments leveled against the desirability and feasibility of the gold standard, Mr. Wolf puts forth a line of reasoning that can serve particularly well as a starting point for debating his position. Mr. Wolf writes,
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Thursday, December 23, 2010
Euro, British Pound Down as US Economy Improves / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: LiveCharts
According to a recent survey by CNN Money, top economists are projecting a 3.1 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) for the United States economy during the final quarter of 2010, after a 2.6 per cent third quarter increase.
The fourth quarter project is an upward revision from previous forecasts and the report also indicates expectations are high for a steady growth throughout 2011.
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Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Europe's New Plan to Save the Euro / Currencies / Euro
By: STRATFOR
Europe is on the cusp of change. An EU heads-of-state summit Dec. 16 launched a process aimed to save the common European currency. If successful, this process would be the most significant step toward creating a singular European power since the creation of the European Union itself in 1992 — that is, if it doesn’t destroy the euro first.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Is this the week which brings “bad” fortune to Euro? / Currencies / Euro
By: Bari_Baig
It seems just about everyone has forgotten about the EU Debt Crisis which couldn’t get enough air time several weeks ago. Now, all of a sudden everyone’s attention is towards U.S or as the holiday season is approaching no one wants to look at the bad side of the picture [But] does that mean all is well? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 17, 2010
The U.S. Dollar Threads a Needle / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Browne
Pre-holiday cheer is certainly evident in the financial markets. The overwhelming consensus is that the Congressional agreement to not raise taxes while extending hundreds of billions in new stimulus will finally allow the recovery to take hold. The good feelings are underscored by less-than-awful employment reports and modest slowdowns in foreclosures. Another point of optimism is the continued buoyancy of the US dollar, which has weakened over the past few months, but has not collapsed.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Is The U.S. Dollar Too Big to Fail? Gold and Silver Lifeline / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Lorimer_Wilson
Those in the U.S. power structure know what the plan is should the U.S. dollar fail. They are not admitting publically that there is even the remotest chance that it could happen but, rest assured, there is a plan. There is always a plan. To paraphrase Franklin Roosevelt, nothing happens by chance in government, so don’t be caught up in such a ‘surprise’ event - whatever it may be and whenever it occurs.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Post Mortem for the world's "Reserve Currency" / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Mike_Whitney
Paul Volcker is worried about the future of the dollar and for good reason. The Fed has initiated a program (Quantitative Easing) that presages an end to Bretton Woods 2 and replaces it with different system altogether. Naturally, that's made trading partners pretty nervous. Despite the unfairness of the present system--where export-dependent countries recycle capital to US markets to sustain demand---most nations would rather stick with the "devil they know", then venture into the unknown. But US allies weren't consulted on the matter. The Fed unilaterally decided that the only way to fight deflation and high unemployment in the US, was by weakening the dollar and making US exports more competitive. Hence--QE2.
Monday, December 13, 2010
U.S. Dollar Forecast 2011, Ways to Profit Despite the Greenback's Expected Struggles / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
By Larry D. Spears writes:
The U.S. dollar faces a long list of challenges in the New Year.
The U.S. greenback could strengthen in 2011-but only against the European euro and other currencies with heavy exposure to the European debt crisis, including the British pound sterling. Against virtually every other currency, however, the U.S. dollar is likely to be the loser.
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Sunday, December 12, 2010
The Debt-Dollar Discipline: Part II - Conservation & Release / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Ashvin_Pandurangi
Part I in this series introduced Michel Foucault's theory of disciplinary society, laid out in his book Discipline and Punish, and the application of this analysis to the "debt-dollar discipline" formally imposed on global society by the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1945 (establishing the dollar as the global reserve currency). It should come as no surprise that this global financial discipline is currently in the process of being revoked.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Ominous Euro Divergence From Rising US and European Equities / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
China's latest action to raise banks' reserve requirement ratios is no longer weighing on market sentiment as participants expect the more aggressive option of higher interest rates (borrowing and lending). The overnight decision to hike RRR for the 6th time this year is seen as part of a broader tightening.
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Friday, December 10, 2010
Can Fiat Paper Currency Bring Prosperity? / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Mike_Hewitt
A short description of money and historical examples where forms of which were not a good store of value ended in economic disaster.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Will Aussie Dollar Overtake U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Bari_Baig
Green back was not strong nor weak it was neutral at best with mild bias towards the red territory a perfect example of undergoing consolidation. However, the U.S Dollar really was materially weak against the Aussie Dollar as the data out from Canberra of employment beat not just the streets estimates but also beat previous induction of “full time” workers. The employment rose by 54,600 for the month of November for full time workers. Australia has the highest interest rates of all the developed nations and keeping in view such high employability the already tight monetary policy would certainly have to be tightened even further.
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Thursday, December 09, 2010
Why the Eurozone and the Euro Will Not Collapse, But Will Change / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
There appears to be just over one week left for the Eurozone Finance Ministers to resolve the Eurozone debt crisis or face a collapse of confidence in it and the euro. This need not lead to a collapse of the two though. In perhaps an underestimated situation, the discord among the members of the "Europe United" bloc, the seeming inability to permanently resolve the crisis is well on the way to that end.
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Wednesday, December 08, 2010
U.S. Dollar and Euro, Two Flawed Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: John_Browne
Despite America's economic problems, the US dollar has maintained its respected status the world over - and has even managed to maintain value in comparison to other currencies. It appears that the dollar will likely finish 2010 at the same levels that it started. Even today's announcement of more tax cuts and stimulus, which will guarantee widening federal deficits for years to come, could not put a dent in the dollar. The dollar's charmed life stands in strong contrast to the euro, which is currently suffering from its internal flaws and the Europeans' unfortunate recognition of reality.
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Wednesday, December 08, 2010
What Happens When Currencies Go Bust? / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Richard_Daughty
I was telling the doctor that I distinctly heard a popping sound inside my head when I saw that the foul Federal Reserve had created, last week alone, another $24.2 billion in Fed Credit, which was instantly turned into money when the Fed bought $24.2 billion of US government securities, and all in One Freaking Week (OFW)! It made a kind of "sizzling" sound.
Tuesday, December 07, 2010
EUR/USD Targets 1.25 / Currencies / Euro
By: Bari_Baig
Last week on Dec 2nd after the ECB’s press conference Euro found additional strength on news that three months were being extended in the QEI program and by Friday’s close Euro had traded upward to 1.343s. Euro then rallied from 1.298s to 1.343s which is 5 Big figures and we had termed the move a bounce even before it took place as we wrote in our article [The Good Days [Euro] dated Dec 1st on www.marketprojection.net and [Euro, USD, Gold, and Stock Index Analysis] on Dec 1st on www.marketoracle.co.uk that “Edited note “summary”: coming two days would be good for Euro and we are “Bulls” as we find Euro extremely over sold at this point however, after 2 days the downside opens up even more and we’d therefore sell on strength” regardless of what we had anticipated we are willing to give all this credit to Mr. Trichet. Why? Because the only obvious effect of Mr. Trichet’s statement was on Euro and it too was further aided by weak employment data from the U.S on Friday which resulted in U.S Dollar falling fast.
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Monday, December 06, 2010
Recovery in USD/CHF at Key Resistance / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
After reaching a high for the year in May USD/CHF slipped steadily back, piercing the major 2008 low in Oct. Subsequent recovery has been relatively modest so far, and key resistance is currently holding the bulls back.