Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, October 26, 2009
Please Mr. Geithner, Don't Pass the Buck on the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
It seems nobody in this country wants to take responsibility for the secular decline in the value of the U.S. dollar. When Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is asked about the currency's decline, he refers the query to the Treasury Department. When the president is asked about the dollar, he often gives the tired old platitude that the U.S. has a strong dollar policy, but his vacuous words seem more like perfunctory utterances than a bona fide dollar-boosting strategy.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
U.S. Dollar Slowly Firming Against Japanese Yen and Euro / Currencies / Forex Trading
The National Australia Bank (NAB) will publish its Quarterly Business Confidence report tomorrow (OCT 27).
The report measures the current business conditions in Australia by analyzing the economic situation in the short term.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
The Vague Future of the Russian Ruble / Currencies / Russia
The "profitable" Russian ruble is trying to strengthen its position against the US dollar. The situation in the internal currency market in Russia is still affected by the external environment and speculative intentions of investors. Although the prospects of further strengthening of the Russian currency are increasingly obscure, analysts believe that the price of 29 rubles per US dollar is unattainable in the near future.
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Sunday, October 25, 2009
U.S. Dollar Collapse Update, Obama Demanding Payment in Euros! / Currencies / US Dollar
The "dollar debate" on the Internet has been ferocious and emotionally-charged, but sadly lacking in logic. To oppose the "dollar will crash" theorists is like arguing a woman's right to choose with the fist-waving throng assembled outside an abortion clinic. The results are equally disappointing. To say that "minds are already made up and the issue is settled", is an understatement. For many, the dollar's transition from the world's reserve currency to a Wiemar era Deutschemark is not a question "if" but only of "when". One reader summed up the distrust that's felt for anyone who dares to challenge the prevailing dogma like this:
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Friday, October 23, 2009
King Dollar Forced to Abdicate / Currencies / US Dollar
For the most part, the value of the dollar is given cursory attention by the financial media. Typically, its movements are assigned an importance on par with much less determinative metrics such as natural gas futures and construction permits. It's only when major milestones are reached that anyone really takes notice of the dollar. We are living through one of those times.
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Thursday, October 22, 2009
The Next Currency to Crash / Currencies / Forex Trading
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: "What's your slam-dunk currency trade right now?"
I asked my friend Jack that question earlier this week...
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Key Reversal Week in GBP/CHF Lures Bulls / Currencies / Futures Trading
After nearing an interesting Fibo projection earlier this year the GBP/CHF cross rate recovery came to a halt. Subsequent weakness has been quite deep but we have just seen a potentially bullish Key Reversal Week, marking at least a temporary turning point.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 22, 2009
U.S. Dollar Crash is Not Going to Happen / Currencies / US Dollar
The dollar is not going to crash. In fact, many economists believe that the dollar will rally when the Fed ends its quantitative easing program (QE) sometime in early 2010. The Fed is on track to buy nearly $2 trillion dollars of mortgage-backed securities, US Treasuries and agency debt. In other words, the Fed is printing money and pumping it into the housing market to keep the market from collapsing. This keeps interest rates low, but it also weakens the dollar. When the program ends, long-term interest rates will rise and the dollar will strengthen.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
U.S. Dollar Attacked by Central Bank Lilliputians Profting From the Carry Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
The US Federal Reserve continues to talk about their urgent Exit Strategy. My theory is they will be doing mostly talking and almost no doing. The nations that talk the least will be hiking interest rates the most, like Australia. The United States might be dead last in hiking interest rates. The credibility of the USFed will in the process continue to be harmed much more than already, which is rock bottom. The Dollar Carry Trade and the lost Petro-Dollar advantage will work to destroy the USDollar as the global reserve currency. The USFed will have to resort to unusual means to keep the world ‘interested’ and ‘involved’ in the USDollar at all. When they lose interest and involvement, the US$ will descend into the Third World. The USDollar will then be forced to find its true value, based on its own merit.
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Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Currency Market Sees No Motive in Buying U.S. Dollars as Risk Appetite Increases / Currencies / Forex Trading
G7 finance ministers and central bankers ought to realize that their USD-supporting rhetoric (Bernanke, Lagarde and Trichet) will be devalued by a currency market that sees no motive in buying the greenback as long as improved risk appetite continues to shore up a USD-driven global liquidity. With US earnings beating estimates and the "commodity central banks" not mincing their words about tightening liquidity, the only viable way for US policy makers to stabilize the USD is to start withdrawing liquidity...rather than talk about when is a good time to do it.
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Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Zero Discount Value of Gold and Dethroning theĀ U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
A truly major change in the global monetary system is beginning to materialize. The dollar is starting to be dethroned. Foreign governments and central banks are going to do the dethroning.
I have no prediction as to how slowly or quickly this process will take. The major dethroners, the Chinese, are on record as favoring a slow process. The transition is already occurring, however. Now that attitudes have shifted among the dethroners, they are likely to keep at it.
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Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Currency Trading for 20th October 2009 / Currencies / Forex Trading
Tomorrow (Oct 21) The Bank of England's (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will publish its record of the committee's interest rate meeting held two weeks ago.
The meeting gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK, and records the votes of the individual members of the Committee.
If the BOE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
On the U.S. Dollar, Europe Sings a Classic Meatloaf Hit, Two Out of Three Ain't Bad / Currencies / US Dollar
Seriously, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet cannot possibly be serious when he says Europe Takes U.S. Strong-Dollar Policy Seriously.
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Monday, October 19, 2009
Central Banks Systematically Destroying Hard Earned Wealth Through Fiat Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency
Human beings are not designed to think in terms of loss, or at minimum, are not built to deal with it well psychologically. And if you look around one can see this in how we have structured our modern day society, with the economy counting on steady and consistent growth even if its not to be. Of course even though it’s not to be, we humans would prefer to be optimistic, and lie about the reality of the situation. Here, because of this desire, our bureaucracy feels they have sufficient license to lie about the economy in increasing measure; whatever it takes to avoid loss – loss of wealth, loss of jobs, and most importantly loss of the fictitious wealth most have saved in fictitious dollars ($’s). Oh yes, naturally when we speak of bureaucracy we cannot ignore the desire for power within the formula, however for our purposes we lump all these desires into one easily understandable obsession, that being the desire to increase and maintain one’s wealth, where today, this also means at any cost unfortunately.
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Monday, October 19, 2009
U.S. Dollar Awaits Fed's Speech Blitz / Currencies / Forex Trading
The week's upcoming blitz of Fed speeches starts with Bernanke's speech about Asia and the crisis (15:00 GMT). All voting members at this year's FOMC are due to speak this week, with the exception of Board Governor Duke and Atlanta Fed's Lockhart. As the dollar accelerates its decline, FX markets are increasingly aware that short of any USD-supporting remarks from non-US policy makers, effective USD stabilization would have to emerge from Fed's managing of inflation expectations (translation: signalling intentions to begin withdrawing excess liquidity by saying it will raise rates when the time is right).
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Monday, October 19, 2009
Saving the U.S. Dollar and Bearish Gold Volume / Currencies / US Dollar
It has been said that not even the U. S. Marine Corps can save the dollar. However, the way things appear, and according to the Delta Long Term turning points, the Marines may succeed in a delaying action for about twelve months. Desperate times require desperate means. The U. S. Dollar, starting about now, may actually rally right up to the mid term elections in November 2010. Perhaps we should include American politics as one of our market timing tools.
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Monday, October 19, 2009
U.S. Dollar Remains at Important Support Against the Yen / Currencies / Forex Trading
Traders await the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) decision on short term interest rate which will be announced tomorrow (Tuesday, 20/10).
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Short Term Bull Signal in USD/JPY Now Seen / Currencies / Forex Trading
The recent downtrend in USD/JPY has been trying to find support above the prior lows of Dec-08/Jan-09. It looks as though a s/term recovery signal has now been given, and it is now time to look at some of the overhead hurdles confronting the s/term bulls.
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Monday, October 19, 2009
Orderly U.S. Dollar Depreciation Is Better Than Protectionism / Currencies / US Dollar
For all of the furore about the dollar’s slide, it is easy to lose sight of the underlying forces at play. However, we should not be complacent, as these forces can still have destructive effects on global growth prospects. Global imbalances, represented broadly in the growing US current account deficit and rising surpluses in many other parts of the world, were one of the prime - for some, the only - reasons for the global crisis that is still unwinding.
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Sunday, October 18, 2009
The Forex Establishment / Currencies / Forex Trading
While collecting data about the Forex market, it is important to know who the major players are. Who originally designed Forex, who are the major participants, who makes decisions that have a significant impact on the Forex market? This and more will be explored in “The Forex Establishment.” First, let’s examine what is an establishment.
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