Stock Market Awaiting the Bonds Panic to trigger QE4Ever

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025 Apr 30, 2025 - 07:33 PM GMT

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Market Brief 25th April - 6am UK Time.

Strong stock market rally....... BUT! So far failing to break above 5520 that would next target 5850. Folk obsess over technical's such as EMA, breadth thrusts, oversold sentiment and so on, BUT outside of the stock market charts and studies THERE IS THE CRIPPLED US BOND MARKET THAT REMAINS HEADING TOWARDS A PANIC EVENT as I have been iterating since March.

What's changed?

Nothing!

Capital flight out of the US continues that can be summed up in a few words as the Yen Carry Trade Unwind as I covered at length in my article - https://www.patreon.com/posts/stock-market-as-126879270

Yes Trump is surrendering on tariffs, why? because of FEAR of what he has unleashed! He can't control what he has unleashed! The damage has been done, a recession has been baked in for months no matter what the talking heads say on the CNBC cartoon network.

It looks like we need some luck on our side to get that break above 5520 to target 5850, to get the herd FOMO-ing in just BEFORE the next panic event that will see the yield on the US 10 year pop above 5% from current 4.3%.

The Panic event will manifest as Yen Up, Dollar Down, US Bonds Down, US Stocks Down, a spike in volatility = AI stocks Panic buying opp as the Fed will be forced to save the bond market with QE.

On the bright side the AI Mega-trend is exponential, the next big thing is just around the corner that just like LLM's will be a game changer and prompt demand for even more compute power, the next leap towards AGI, maybe Quantum finally starts producing results. Looking at the S&P chart shows folk have had 3 opps to buy AI stocks at deep discounts and so we will probably get a fourth opp, how low could she blow? Depends on how well the panic is handled, if Trump and his cronies run their mouths with bullshit about how great everything is then we will break the 4800 low, if they keep quiet and let the adults such as Jerome Powell do the talking then we should hold the 4800 low. So I've placed my limits and will see what gets filled on both the buy side and the sell side.

And don't forget that the S&P is a nothing burger, alls folk need to do is buy target stocks when cheap where column AC easily tells you how cheap or expensive each stock is instead of looking at the S&P. Right now cheapest AI stocks are Nvidia, Google and Amazon which means new all time highs for these 3 this year remains doable regardless of the draw downs. If the S&P suffers another panic attack as looks likely then that would be great because it means target AI tech stocks become dirt cheap once more because the exponential AI mega-trend isn't going away! Yes folk need to learn to always keep some powder dry which is why one trims rallies, sells some of what one bought during the dip at a profit so cash gets rebuilt and average price paid per share nudges lower.

Your analyst awaiting the Bonds Panic to trigger QE4Ever.

Nadeem Walayat

Most recent analysis -

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Contents
Trumpet of the Apocalypse
The Yen Carry Trade
Bitcoin Brief
US Exponential Budget Deficit
QE4EVER
US Interest Rates
Trade War Unintended Consequences
Trump Tax Cuts
Stock Market's Got Anxiety - Panic Attacks!
Stock Market Volatility
AI Stocks Portfolio current state
ASML - Wednesday 16th April - $673 - EGF 29% / 33%, PE Range 53% / 11%
TSMC - Thurs 17th April - $155 - EGF 21%, 43%, PE Range 62% / 26%
TSLA - Tues 22nd April - $252 - EGF -2%, 27%, PE Range 173% / 116%
IBM - Wednesday 23rd April - $239 - EGF 3%, 8%, PE Range 95% / 80%
LRCX - 23rd April - $68 - EGF 14%, 12%, PE Ranges 76% / 60%
Google $158 - EGF +5%, +19%, PE Ranges 16% / -15%.
Who wants to Live for Ever?
Canada's New National Anthem

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Money Printer Getting Ready to go Brrr
Trumponomics Breaks the US Dollar
S&P Correction Trend
Deviation Against Stock Market Trend Forecast
Recession Self Fulfilling Prophecy
Next Stocks Bear Market How Bad Could it Get?
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
Buying the Dip
Elon's Butt Must Hurt
Stocks Bull Market End Game Strategy in Brief
PSYCHOLOGY FOR SUCCESSFUL BEAR MARKET INVESTING!
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Post bear market
FX Impact - Sterling Bear Market Hedging
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Draw downs from 2021 highs to lows 2022 lows
Best and Worst Stocks to Hold During the Nest Bear Market
Agent Orange Stock Market / Financial System Doomsday Scenario

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Contents
State of the Stocks Bull Market
It's the 1990's All Over Again!
Stock Market Deviation Against Trend Forecast
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AI Megatrend
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AI Stocks Portfolio
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Your buying the black swan panic events analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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