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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Gold, Silver and Currency Wars / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Jesse

"The US must win, since it has infinite ammunition: there is no limit to the dollars the Federal Reserve can create.

What needs to be discussed is the terms of the world’s surrender: the needed changes in nominal exchange rates and domestic policies around the world."

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Commodities

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Gold Price Declines Once Again As Expected / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Briefly: In our opinion speculative short positions (full) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Gold and mining stocks declined yesterday in a rather profound way. The GDX ETF finally broke below its 2013 lows and the volume that corresponded to this action was high. However, silver almost didn't react - why didn't it? Will we see a rally shortly?

In short, not likely. There was a good reason for silver to hold up strongly at this time. However, before we move to this situation, let's take a look at the "background info" - the changes in the USD Index (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Fed Ends QE? Greenspan Says Gold “Measurably” “Higher” In 5 Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

As expected, the Fed announced yesterday it would end its six year money printing and bond buying programme.

Given the fragile nature of the U.S. economy, Eurozone economy and indeed the global economy, Fed critics continue to believe that this may be a short term hiatus prior to a resumption of QE, if asset prices start to fall or economic growth falters.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan admitted yesterday to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), that QE and the Fed’s bond buying program, which aimed to lower unemployment and spur stronger economic growth, fell short of its goals.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Understanding Gold's Massive Impact on Fed Maneuvering / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Money_Morning

Peter Krauth writes: Just about everyone knows Alan Greenspan. As central bankers go, he may just be the most famous ever. Even today, 1 in 6 Americans still think he's the current chair of the Federal Reserve.

As Fed chief from 1987 until 2006, Greenspan oversaw the latter part of the greatest stock bull in history.

For that, some called him "The Maestro."

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Commodities

Thursday, October 30, 2014

The Colder War: How the Global Energy Trade Slipped From America's Grasp / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: John_Mauldin

The story of energy is the story of human expansion. From the days when we roamed the African savanna, we tamed first fire and then other forms of energy, using them as tools to control our environment and improve our lives. The control of energy has always been at the heart of the human story.

This week our Outside the Box essay is from my friend Marin Katusa, who has written a fascinating book about a part of that story, a subplot of intrigue and conspiracy. Under Putin, Russia has aspired to dominate the energy markets. Called The Colder War, Marin’s book is a well-written tale of the rise of Putin and his desire to change the way the world’s energy markets are controlled.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Gold and Silver Junior Miners Buying Opportunity Comes Once Every Six Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2014

By: Jeb_Handwerger

Risk taking is a natural part of life, especially in the capitalist system where the greater the risk, the increased potential reward. The TSX Venture Index which is made of the Canadian start ups in junior mining and high tech is hitting lows not seen since 2002 and the 2008 Credit Crisis. Investors are now risk adverse, but as the charts shows below that could change.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Gold's Obituary / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: David_Petch

This is probably not the type of article anyone who owns precious metal stocks would like to read, but here it is. The analysis presented today illustrates short-term and mid-term outlooks up front, with the Elliott Wave count indicating the longer-term trend expected over the next 5-7 years. I am not really going to provide much information on investment strategies around this analysis, but if one connects the dots, it should reveal a crystal clear picture.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Greenspan: Gold Price Will Rise / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Axel_Merk

Any doubts about why I own gold as an investment were dispelled last Saturday by the maestro himself: former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan. It's not because Greenspan said he thinks the price of gold will rise - I don't need his investment advice; it's that he shed light on how the Fed works in ways no other former Fed Chair has ever dared to articulate. All investors should pay attention to this. Let me explain.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Government Gold-Plating / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) released his annual Wastebook this past week. It contains a laundry list of doozies. The U.S. government’s gold-plating operations included $190,000 to study compost digested by worms, $297 million for the purchase of an unused mega blimp, and $1 million on a Virginia bus stop where only 15 people can huddle under a half-baked roof. These questionable (read: absurd) expenditures only represent the tip of the iceberg.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Gold vs Paper - A Tale of Two Cities / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: DeviantInvestor

This is a work of fiction with a few similarities to the reality we all know and trust, or … the reality that we think we know.

City A in a Paper World:

A financial genius had a plan!  He and his offspring implemented the plan over several hundred years.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Omniscient Federal Reserve Captures The Capital Market, For Now. Gold Beckons / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: GoldCore

A cursory glance at the various financial news media this morning shows nothing particularly unusual for these unusual times. The ECB have paraded a list for stress tested banks and the market shrugged. However, there is a disturbing thread running through most of the stories to which we have become immune but which would have been considered highly unusual at almost any time in the twentieth century. And that thread is the influence of the Federal Reserve in practically every key market in the world. 

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

The End of QE and the Price of Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Bob_Kirtley

Background
The programme known as Quantitative Easing is due to be halted at the end of October, coinciding with the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee which is scheduled for 28/29 October 2014.  Monetary policy plays a big role in gold’s fortunes and so the strategies put in place by the central banks around the world need to be watched very carefully.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Oliver Gross Says Peak Gold Is Here to Stay / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: The_Gold_Report

The wave of zero-interest liquidity washing over the financial world could result in a short-term gold bottom of $1,000 per ounce, reports Oliver Gross of Der Rohstoff-Anleger (The Resource Investor). The good news is that Peak Gold is here to stay, which means that midtier producers will soon be desperate to buy low-cost, high-quality deposits. In this interview with The Gold Report, Gross argues that this could be the opportunity of a lifetime for contrarian investors, and suggests a half-dozen best bets to be taken out.

The Gold Report: Earlier this month, the broader equities markets suffered huge losses as gold made significant gains. Then, after the broader markets recovered, gold fell. Is there now an inverse relationship between the health of the broader markets and the price of gold?

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Total War over the Petrodollar / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Marin_Katusa

The conspiracy theories surrounding the death of Total SA’s chief executive, Christophe de Margerie, started the second the news broke of his death. Under mysterious circumstances in Moscow, his private jet collided with a snowplow just after midnight. De Margerie was the CEO of Total, France’s largest oil company.

He’d just attended a private meeting with Russian Prime Minister Medvedev, at a time when the West’s relationship with Russia is fraught, to say the least.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Does Gold Price Always Respond to Real Interest Rates? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Generally, the real interest rates are negatively correlated with the gold price, i.e. the rising interest rates adversely impact the yellow metal. Based on this adverse relationship between real interest rates and price of gold, Elfenbein built a model for the price of gold. According to it, whenever the dollar's real short-term interest rate is below 2%, gold rallies, and whenever the real short-term rate is above 2%, the price of gold falls. Another rule of thumb is that gold moves eight times stronger than the difference between real interest rates and 2%. If the model is correct, the Fed's future interest rates hike may be detrimental for the price of gold. However, there are many objections to the use of such a simple model, and generally to the adverse relationship between gold and real interest rates.

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