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About MarketOracle.co.uk

sitenews / Articles Sep 10, 2006 - 05:25 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

sitenews

Welcome to The Market Oracle

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Market Oracle Editorial Team

Nadeem Walayat - Editor of MarketOracle.co.uk, is our resident financial analyst, with over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Having started his trading career in 1986, and having first become a member of the Society of Technical Analysts in 1991. Apart from active real-time trading, Nadeem has been a programmer since 1983 and worked as a corporate accountant for over 12 years. Nadeem's objective is to freely share his knowledge, experience and analysis that he undertakes in support of his portfolio management and trading activities. "The first lesson a new trader needs to learn is that Trading is completely different to Investing. I plan at some point in the future to publish a series of articles on How to Trade that will make it clear that 90% of what is published in the trading books is at best irrelevant to trading and worst a red herring".

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Comments

Glenn Sanada
11 Dec 07, 16:26
FED dropping their rates

How many times will the FED trying to navigate between the INFLATION AND THE RECESSION. The margin of error is very slim now and the FED ship will crash on either the shore of RECESSION or INFLATION or BOTH.

How long are the morons going to ask for a steroid fix from the FED???? Haven't we seen enough of BubbleMania???? And the Busts.


A Painter
21 Apr 08, 11:43
Gordon Browns Abolishment of the 10% Tax Band- Leadership Challenge?

It's not 'abolishment' - it's 'abolition'!


Nikhil Kumar
12 Jun 08, 07:09
front page list of articles

What happened to that big list of all the article headings on the front page?

That was a good way to see all the available articles.


Sarah_Jones
12 Jun 08, 08:22
Front Page Listings

It repeated what is already posted on the left side under Best of the Week.


walter libby
20 Jun 08, 14:44
History at a turning point

We face many challenges. The rise of communist China, peak oil, and a unresolved economic crisis. For a new look at the China threat, and how we solve the energy crisis while lifting our country out recession check out my blog. It's all about sustainable development.

http://theendpoint.blogspot.com/


Steve Rouse
09 Feb 09, 16:27
Printing your articles...

I love your website and check it daily, reading most of the new articles posted. However, I like to print the articles for reading away from my computer, and your articles are REALLY hard to print well. Is there anything that you can do to help this. For example, Safe Haven includes a "print friendly version" link that allows for a nice clean print. Even the charts print in full on a page, rather than getting separated between two pages.

Yes, I know all my printing is not eco-friendly, but I love marking the articles and enjoy carrying with me to read when I'm not near my computer.

Thanks again for a great website.

Cheers,

Steve


paul mak
15 Jul 09, 15:10
market manipulation

A fantastic site with a tremendous wealth of information. The more I read on your site and others that I hold in high regard, the more I believe the markets (commodities,forex,equities) are rigged. I'd be very interested if you were to pass comment on Joe Saluzzi's interview in that respect.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0U1vMUa2sc

best

paul


paul m
11 Aug 09, 08:42
manipulation

dear Nadeen - many thanks for your many insightful articles - i look forward to the next installment and new website. I too have been frustrated at the manipulated markets lately and came across this rather blatent discussion

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/298475/Memo-to-Bernanke-Remove-the-Life-Support-%22Let-the-Chips-Fall-Where-They-May%22?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,SPY,DIA,XLF,SKF,TBT

best

paul


Kevin Taylor
07 Dec 09, 16:37
Something new for investors

Gold investors are a special kind of people. Hard bitten enough to have stuck to their beliefs through decades of being derided by central bankers, Wall Street’s ‘smart money men’ and other assorted ‘experts’, they have recently shown the whole world that they were right all along and are now starting to reap some real rewards for having stuck to their convictions. There is a company that I have been researching, which never for a moment doubted their wisdom and has now spent decades on the ground in Africa, developing sources of gold from artisan and small miners, building trust and developing key relationships and a powerful and wide ranging organizational network.

In addition to its unrivaled capabilities as a potential major supplier of precious and semi-precious stones from artisan sources, this company is now also uniquely positioned as large scale intended supplier of artisan gold from all over the African continent and elsewhere. In Africa, the company’s gold supplies sources are now on the ground in 22 countries and this list will soon be expanded even more, I am told. Major additional supplies are also immediately available from Brazil and South East Asia. The individual gold suppliers of this company tend to be fairly small scale. However, their vast numbers together with the developed trust and individual relationships, and including their long standing and wide ranging organizational network built up over decades, have resulted in a sustained combined production capability rivaling the major gold mines in the business. This apparently solid source of supply, together with firm contracts in now place with refineries in the US and Europe to process its gold output, places this company I am referring to in a truly unique position for immediate and extremely rapid growth in profitability to fully sustainable long term levels.

It seems the uniqueness of this company’s position is only matched by the unique opportunities currently available to a very limited number of suitable and fairly small scale capital partners. Due to the self-financing nature of operations, there seems to be no need for a larger scale of outside capital. For those who get in at the start will be able to participate in a new way of profit sharing, offering secure returns better than recently achieved by most gold stocks. I am told, total security of investments will be available anytime and investors will be free to withdraw all of their capital at any time.

For additional information free of charge please contact me at kevin42taylor@gmail.com - Kevin Taylor


Lamont Cranston
02 Mar 10, 10:24
Robert Prechter

Why do you keep promoting Robert Prechter?

In a report by Eric Tyson (http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090616)he points out that..

"Mark Hulbert has been documenting Prechter's investment trading predictions and picks since 1985 so he now has a nearly 25 year long track record which can tell us whether you should trade on his predictions or not.

Here's how Prechter's trading advice has done from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 versus the broad U.S. stock market average (Wilshire 5000 index) according to Hulbert's analysis:

Annualized Return:

* Wilshire 5000 Index + 9.7 percent

* Prechter's Trading Advice -15.4 percent

Total Return:

* Wilshire 5000 Index + 857.1 percent

* Prechter's Trading Advice - 98.3 percent

The underperformance of Prechter's newsletter is nothing short of astonishing and stunning! On an annualized basis, Prechter has underperformed the broad U.S. stock market Wilshire 5000 index by a whopping 25 percent per year! Here's what Hulbert's analysis shows would have happened to $100,000 invested according to Prechter's investing trading advice versus the Wilshire 5000 U.S. stock market index:

$100,000 Invested (1/1/85-5/31/09):

* Wilshire 5000 Index $957,100

* Prechter's Trading Advice $1,700"


IOSEB
10 Jan 11, 15:57
Letter to Obama

WHITE HOUSE, PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA

I WISH YOU MARRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR

Dear President,Mr. B.Obama,

With your kindly permission, in regards to current crisis situation I would like to offer you several proposals providing a set of steps to be made for overcoming of the world financial crisis, which would help us to avoid the upcoming first global depression that is capable to change the world map similarly to the Second World War. Today, we may say for sure that the number of sovereign countries would reduce dramatically.

The illusory belief that we have already overcome the world crisis due to the concentrated actions of the world leading country governments, central banks and critical number of the wealthy people, is nothing but a mistake. The current crisis is not only the financial-economic one but it is rather the crisis of civilization...

One of the reasons of inadequate analysis of the crisis by the most governments of the world is a comparison of this crisis with the past ones, as well as their sociopolitical and cultural approach to this issue.

I dare to state this in the article titled “Free Economic Zones – Black Holes of the Country Economy”, which I published approximately 12 years ago in the Georgian newspaper “Droni” (issued on 24.12.1998). There I stated and argued that such crisis would take place and threaten the financial-economic safety of the USA and the so called “American life-style”.

One of the reasons that accelerated this crisis and made it irreversible is the offshore financial centers. Not to mention about the offshore crimes, the tax oasis will become the barrier for overcoming the crisis, not because that the local tax capital flows to those centers, but because of the registration of the companies in the offshore zones provides then an opportunity to avoid the internal economic regulation measures taken by the counties against the crisis.

Generally, almost all offshore companies are criminal ones, which perform criminal activities intentionally or without it, that are directed against one or another political system for their uncontrolled financial activities. Presently such activities achieved the global character, what would threaten primarily the socio-political situation of the US population and then – the entire world, or vice versa, as a dollar is the world reserve currency. I wonder, if there exist event a single argument supporting the idea that the offshore financial centers are useful for the world economy? ... Those who believe that the offshore financial centers might be under control are indeed amazing.

What is the basis of such considerations? I would like to mention a well-known fact – as to why all money of criminal origin (such as illegal revenues from drugs, weapons, those of OPEC countries etc.) are concentrated on the closed accounts of offshore banks ... (account Z) until the financial instruments for their laundering appear (promissory notes, deposit certificates, various forms of loan instruments of the central banks, state or bank guarantees, pension funds etc.) and further, using such financial instruments, in the TOP-100 banks, mostly on the level of the bank officers (which can not be controlled!!! and in many cases the controllers themselves participate in such operations) the so called criminal money is laundered (cleaned) in few seconds. Often bank officers are backed by their managers and today, there appeared the third subject – so called hedge funds. Except for the trustees, in many cases, even the issuers of the financial instruments have no idea for what type of operations are used those financial instruments (except the officially known ones) that are issued by them.

In addition to the above mentioned, there are tens of various financial systems and forms, which could not be subjected to the control, unless the offshore financial centers are entirely eliminated…

The EU and USA partially realized the danger only now and the issue of establishing the Financial Stability Board was put on agenda but it is too late and such Board won’t be able to do anything. Adding to that, one third of the total bank deposits of the developed countries are concentrated in the offshore financial centers.

By the abolition of the offshore financial centers or outlaw all their operations (what is inevitable), the problem of hedge funds, as such, would be resolved, as they would loose their functions automatically. The current and future crisis would destroy and bankrupt many national states; besides, the existing multi-offshore world that exists today would be the result of it (I can state that in case of declaring the offshore centers illegal, it would endanger even “business-friendship” of Berlusconi – Putin!)

Further step to be considered is the Federal Reserve System (FED), which has also significantly contributed to the current crisis through their financial programs which are not flaunted and which lead to the creation of so many hedge funds with their criminal activities and so on. One should ask, whether today the m-3 monetary aggregates exist or not? And where and how it disappeared?

Now let us see, of how many trillion dollars are comprised the world economy and how many trillion dollars have been spent and you will see that money spent is ten times more than the world economy and probably this moved the m-3 money supply into a virtual world. But, unfortunately, we don’t live in the virtual world and even the nationalization of the FED Emission Center won’t be able to do anything with this... Briefly, the FED has exhausted its functions and capabilities and therefore, imposing new controlling functions over it is completely inadmissible.

Adding to that, any relations of pension funds with the offshore organizations should be prohibited, in case if they have not been bankrupted yet.

One of the most dangerous factors of this crisis is the so called the rule of living in credit as well as the education system, which should be paid. In general, with respect of this crisis, the complex approach is required, which shows that this financial crisis is not just the financial crisis, but it has deeper roots and it could be surmounted if those problems, which resulted this crisis, are clearly seen and understood. I hope this would be done and that is why I am writing this letter.

The global financial-economic crisis clearly demonstrated the instable nature of the current existing political structures and in general, the weaknesses of the entire political sphere in the world.

It is clear that the current democracy requires systematic changes and this crisis is one of the proving arguments. The existing democracy can not stand the test of time; nothing to say about the globalization, where even a China factor was not taken into consideration in its time; and now it can not be controlled at all. If this world financial crisis is not eliminated timely, it will not be surprising if Mao supporters return to China.

Globalization is accompanied with new risks and instability, nothing to say about the geo-economic unity. The Geo-cultural varieties are absurd.

I don’t want democracy to become the political archaism of the 20th century, especially, when the existing democracy is endangered by the phenomenon of timocracy. To prevent this, the quick systemic changes are necessary. I shall note the required systemic changes on Georgia’s example and you would decide, whether they are suitable only for Georgia or not.

It is a fact that today there are no politicians in Georgia and that is why the politics invaded into our homes, to all citizens of Georgia. Therefore, currently, in Georgia, there are about three million accidental politicians, i.e. all citizens of Georgia have their own political position and fiercely protect it.

I myself can not entrust safety of my country and my family to any of the “politicians” or the political party. The recent Russian-Georgian war showed us, how much time is enough that Georgia and Georgian people did not exist any more!

The main thing, that should be necessarily taken into consideration in the future, are such systemic changes, which would allow these three million voters to express their opinion on a monthly basis and not once per four or five years. This is achievable!!! To remain in a state of the outdated democratic system would be catastrophic for our country (though, it is clear that this might refer not only to Georgia but also to the entire civilized democratic world!!!)

Let us consider first of all what systemic changes we need. We pay taxes every month and not once per four or five years. The starting point and the concern for each Georgian, and not only for them, should be such systemic changes, where each Georgian citizen is able to control the expenditure of taxes paid by them on a monthly basis (US democracy was not able to control this and that’s why we have the world financial crisis). This is possible in today’s Georgia; Instead of the elections once in five year, we should apply the principle of the election-re-election-distinguishing of the Parliament members on a monthly basis and this is not in controversy with democracy.

Instead of the election Commission there should be established such a body which, on the basis of the established criteria, will select and/or examine the citizens willing to become a member of the Parliament, while taking into consideration their place of residence. Let’s say, 20.000-30.000 voters will have their representatives in the Parliament. Based on the monthly questioning of the voters, their representative in the Parliament will be assigned the rating mark and thus they shall be dismissed every month and not once per four or five years.

Today, in conditions of modern technologies - computers, mobile phones, etc., when we pay bills for the utility services once per month, it is possible to add one more column in that bill, in which every voter will write whether he/she is satisfied with the representative in the Parliament or not. The same form could be used for conducting the monthly polls, plebiscite or referendum and if the rating mark of the Parliament member falls below the critical limit, he/she would leave the parliament and be replaced by the next candidate as decided by 20.000-30.000 voters. If the Parliament member is able to deal with the foreign and local affairs, to control properly the expenditure of paid taxes every month and to take due care of 20.000-30.000 voters, he would remain on his/her position permanently; as for the legislative activities let the professionals do this job, supposedly in the sub-committees.

Generally, there are political scientists, psychologists and economists, who, together with me, would develop the ways of practical implementation of this program and probably, few months would be completely enough for us to offer to Georgian people and whole world a new democratic system, as well as the controlled Parliament thus avoiding numerous threats.

We shall no more have the thief government, which are protected and guaranteed by the current “democratic” system, as the temptations are too powerful (we elect the Parliament and the President for four-five years and they rule the money paid every month by us for four-five years without control). In addition, all protest demonstrations, danger of revolutions and civil wars will completely disappear. Each citizen would maintain the sense of dignity that they are responsible for their own, as well as their country. Their opinion will be taken into consideration each month and not only once in four-five years and, the most important, on the monthly basis the Georgian citizens will be able to control everything that they would consider suspicious; there will no more exist the suspicious people and non-professionals in the Georgian Parliament.

Thus, the above mentioned systemic change that is the controlled parliament has no alternative.

As you can see such systemic changes require further research and analysis to formulate this as a final program and I am not able to deal with such work alone. I need to invite and involve the professionals in this work. Therefore, I am asking for you kind advice, where and how can I find funding and grants to complete this program that would be the “Grant for democracy”.

Moreover, that there is no alternative to democracy as for you, so as for us.

God is with us!

Respectfully, IOSEB KATSARAVA

P.S. First of all, I would like to thank you for your respond, but the case is that I am not a citizen of the United States of America.I wrote you before with an aim to avoid that financial - political shock that is to start from 2015-2016 and that will destroy the present delusive political-economic "stability". But in order to implement the above mentioned project on democratic changes I necessarily need your support - That is Funding, as for a Georgian and a citizen of the Republic of GEORGIA,especially if we consider that the above noted issues are very crucial at present and they fundamentally reflekt the American people s aspiration for Democracy/

0102 Paster str7, Georgia,Tbilisi

tel (995)92956162


man from Thailand
07 May 11, 21:21
Forecasts
Dear Nadeem I follow your newsletter a while and really surprise that your forcast is so brilliant.

http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/5473/godtalentnadeem.jpg

saurav jain
15 Dec 11, 00:29
News on indian Economics

we find your data very helpful and wish you luck for keeping the consistency of quality information alive.

If you look at your stats of number of vsitors indian visitors do have a considerable clicks on website and we would request you ti kindly keep a section exclusively on BRICS nations which would delivernews on there activity internal and external e.g. currency,economy,politics,core sectors.

This will be a great move on your end.

thank you.


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