Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The new items published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Commercial Bankruptcies Soar as BLS Jobs Data Shown as Worthless / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The McClatchy Washington Bureau is reporting Commercial bankruptcies soar, reflecting widening economic woes . Commercial filings for the first half of 2008 are up 45 percent from last year, as the national climate for commerce continues to deteriorate amid rising energy and food costs, mounting job losses, tighter credit and a reticence among consumers to part with discretionary income.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 20, 2008
California Insolvent as Schwarzenegger's Financial Wizardry is Terminated / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Shedlock
Yesterday, in Taxpayers Can Bear No More , we discussed the record public debt problem in the UK. Chancellor Alistair Darling made it "clear that he thought that the only politically viable option was to increase borrowing, rather than to raise taxation." In the US, states are facing similar budget dilemmas.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Credit Crisis and Housing Bust- Don't Worry the World Will Not End / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The World Will Not End - Take a Deep Breath
- 9% Growth in Housing or a 4% Loss?
Housing starts rose 9% and the market cheerleaders proclaimed that we have seen a bottom. But not if you look at the actual numbers. New unemployment claims were OK, but not if you look at the actual numbers. And inflation was simply ugly, no matter what numbers you look at. However, oil is down and there is reason to think it may have further to go on the downside. We cover all this and more, as we first look at why the world is not going to end.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 18, 2008
US Consumer Retail Sales Contraction Worse than 2001 / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Don't write off the U.S. consumer, right? Wrong. On a year-over-year basis there has been a sharp deceleration in nominal retail sales growth. On a year-over-year basis, there has been a sharp contraction in price-adjusted retail sales. The chart below using quarterly average data illustrates this. Growth in nominal retail sales peaked back in the first quarter of 2006 at 7.6% in this cycle. In the second quarter of this year, nominal retail sales growth had slowed to just 2.6%.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 18, 2008
Brown Breaks Another Golden Rule, Real UK Debt Above 40% of GDP / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Following abandoning of the rule for a balanced budget over an economic cycle, which was broken more than two years ago and followed by repeat manipulation of the start date of the economic cycle and has since been quietly forgotten from Treasury statements. Now the next golden unbreakable rule for economic competence that Gordon's Darling is busy reconstructing for the electorate to swallow is that Government debt must remain below 40% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Status Report on the Collapse of the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_C_Cook
With the economic news of the week of July 14—the continuing crisis among mortgage lenders, the onset of bank failures, the announced downsizing of General Motors, the slide of the Dow-Jones below 11,000—we are seeing the ongoing collapse of the U.S. economy. Even the super-rich are becoming nervous as cries for an emergency suspension of short selling ring out. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Ireland: Economic Hangover as Retail Sales Contract / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Today's headline out of Ireland will add to fears that the decade-long economic boom is ending with a recession. The volume of retail sales fell 1.1% on the month and plunged 4.8% on the year in May, the fourth consecutive monthly fall and the sharpest annual drop since 1987.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
UK Flawed Inflation Measure Stoking Wage Price Spiral and Worker Discontent / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation continues to accelerate after busting through the 3% ceiling in April, and hitting 3.8% in June. However the real rate of inflation being experienced by consumers is a function of the actual purchases made rather than the price of the wide ranging basket of more than 110,000 goods and services that the CPI inflation rate attempts to track. The reason for this is that consumers are feeling the relentless impact of rising fuel, energy, food and credit costs whilst at the same time impacted by asset price deflation as the housing market completes its 10th month in a bear market that has seen house prices now decline by nearly 10% from the August 2007 high or by an average of £20,000. In addition to this the UK stock market has lost 20% of its value from its 2007 highs.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Profit from Economic Boom and Bust Cycles / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Brent_Harmes
Rather than study theory, let's watch the news!
Here is a Yahoo Finance Video . This is exactly the stuff that Mike Maloney was predicting on stage years ago - and it is happening today! Mike sounded slightly nuts when he was talking about this during the housing boom. Few forecasters anticipated that this boom ever really would bust, but the credit balloon can only inflate so far and then it wants to deflate. This has happened repeatedly throughout history.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Bernanke Delivers 'Hogwash' Testimony to Congress / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testified Before the U.S. Senate in the Fed's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress . Let's take a look at some of the highlights.
The economy has continued to expand, but at a subdued pace. In the labor market, private payroll employment has declined this year, falling at an average pace of 94,000 jobs per month through June. Employment in the construction and manufacturing sectors has been particularly hard hit, although employment declines in a number of other sectors are evident as well. The unemployment rate has risen and now stands at 5-1/2 percent.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Former Prime Minister Confesses Real UK Inflation is 10%, Triple Official Rate of 3.8% / Economics / Inflation
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $972.10, up $12.00 and silver was up to $19.15, up 38 cents. Gold rose in trading in Asia before further rises in early European trading. Gold is now up some 7% in the last 5 trading days (from below $920 to over $983) and in normal circumstances one would expect a correction and consolidation. However, these are not normal circumstances. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Inflation Surges to 3.8% as Bank of England Loses Control of Monetary Policy / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The official rate of UK inflation as measured by the CPI index surged higher for June to 3.8% from 3.3% which is inline with Market Oracle expectations that is expected to see inflation continue trending higher to well above 4% over the summer months, with the RPI inflation measure set to rise to above 5%. The impact of the inflationary surge is for the Bank of England to have effectively lost control of monetary policy in that the Bank is paralysed into inaction, neither able to cut interest rates to prevent the UK economy from plunging into a recession, nor able to raise interest rates to curb surging inflation for fear of triggering a deeper recession. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 14, 2008
Global Money Supply Data and Comparison for 2008 / Economics / Money Supply
By: Mike_Hewitt
This essay makes comparisons between the money supply of 25 selected economic areas and discusses the ratios between the values of official gold reserves to outstanding currency.
For the purposes of this essay, the Euro-Zone includes the thirteen countries that use the Euro currency: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain. China includes Hong Kong. All other economic areas are individual countries.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 14, 2008
An More Accurate Measure of the Money Supply TMS or M3 ? / Economics / Money Supply
By: Mike_Shedlock
There has been an interesting discussion between Steve Saville and Paul van Eeden over the monetary aggregates M3 and TMS. For those not familiar with TMS it stands for True Money Supply and it is a monetary measure based on Austrian economic principles. I will come back to the description of TMS in a moment but let's listen to a couple of discussion points from Steve Saville and Paul van Eeden first.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 14, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (July 14-18) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of July 14-18 will see a major five days macro data, earnings and Fed Talk in the context of a very shaky market. Just a few potential market moving events upcoming on the schedule are: the two-day testimony on monetary policy and the economy by Fed Chair Ben Bernanke scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Earnings statements that may shape the entire trading week will be published will be JP Morgan on Wednesday and Merrill Lynch, Citi and Thornburg Mortgage on Thursday. Read full article... Read full article...