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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, October 20, 2017

Here’s the US’s Biggest Vulnerability in NAFTA Negotiations / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND ALLISON FEDIRKA : As the fourth round of NAFTA negotiations comes to an end, the agreement's survival has once again been brought into question.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to strike a new deal with just Canada. Mexico downplayed the threat, saying it would walk away from negotiations if the new terms brought by the US put it at a disadvantage. For their part, the Canadians have been quiet.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Deflation Basics Series: The Quantity Theory of Money / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Here's our challenge.

In order to be aware of the investment pitfalls and opportunities that deflation can bring, we must first understand the basic elements of why it occurs. So our challenge is to try and make monetary economics, a subject that most people would find duller than watching paint dry on a wall, understandable and, dare I say it, fun! It's a big ask but we like a test, and so here is the first in our Deflation Basics Series -- The Quantity Theory of Money.

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Economics

Monday, October 16, 2017

Boomers Are Not Saving Enough for Retirement, Neither Is the Government / Economics / Demographics

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : Wall Street endlessly gushes about retirement. Its TV commercials show how wonderful life will be in our golden years—when we are old, yet still healthy and wealthy enough to go hang-gliding every day.

Meanwhile, out here in the real world, most working-age Americans don’t want to talk or even think about retirement. Often this is because they know they aren't saving enough and probably will have to work until they drop dead.

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Economics

Monday, October 16, 2017

Really Bad Ideas - The Fed Should Have And Defend An Inflation Target / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Rubino

Central banks in general and the Fed in particular are struggling to understand a world in which they’ve thrown everything they have at the economy without generating “beneficial” inflation. Their confusion can be traced back to some profoundly false assumptions.

Some Thoughts And Assertions
An inflation target implies that modest inflation is actually a good thing. This is simply wrong. Inflation is a “stealth tax” through which governments confiscate a bit of savers’ wealth each year without admitting it. If explained honestly such a trick would be a political loser always and everywhere.

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Economics

Saturday, October 14, 2017

Is U.S. Unemployment at the Bottom? / Economics / Unemployment

By: Donald_W_Dony

The U.S. Unemployment rate and the markets have a direct opposite connection to each other. When one goes down (unemployment), the other (stock market) goes up.

The opposite is also true.

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Economics

Friday, October 06, 2017

Eastern Europe Is Becoming a Target for Capital from All Around the World / Economics / Eastern Europe

By: John_Mauldin

Eastern Europe has showed some impressive growth rates over the past decade.

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Economics

Thursday, September 28, 2017

The Koyaanisqatsi Economy / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The film Koyaanisqatsi was released in 1982. The title means ‘life out of balance’ in the language of the Hopi, a Native American tribe who live(d) mainly in what is now north-east Arizona. It is directed by Godfrey Reggio with music by Philip Glass and cinematography by Ron Fricke. There are no actors, and no dialogue. Philip Glass’s music underlies a series of film fragments that contrast the beauty of American nature with the noise and pollution mankind has added to it. Wikipedia:

The film consists primarily of slow motion and time-lapse footage of cities and many natural landscapes across the United States. The visual tone poem contains neither dialogue nor a vocalized narration: its tone is set by the juxtaposition of images and music. Reggio explained the lack of dialogue by stating “it’s not for lack of love of the language that these films have no words. It’s because, from my point of view, our language is in a state of vast humiliation. It no longer describes the world in which we live.”

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Economics

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

The Fed’s 2% Inflation Target Is Pointless / Economics / Inflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

Within the Federal Reserve sometime in 1996, a discussion took place among FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members regarding the subject of inflation targeting. Federal Reserve District Governor (San Francisco) Janet Yellen believed that a little inflation “greases the wheels” of the labor market. Her preferred “target” was 2%. She asked Chairman (at the time) Alan Greenspan his preference. 

The Chairman replied.  “I would say the number is zero, if inflation is properly measured.”

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Economics

Monday, September 18, 2017

Inflation Lies, Lies and OMG More Lies / Economics / Inflation

By: James_Quinn

“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli

Every month the government apparatchiks at the Bureau of Lies and Scams (BLS) dutifully announces inflation is still running below 2%. Janet Yellen then gives a speech where she notes her concern inflation is too low and she needs to keep interest rates near zero to save humanity from the scourge of too low inflation. I don’t know how I could survive without 2% inflation reducing my purchasing power.

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Economics

Saturday, September 16, 2017

Predicting the Future of the U.S. and the World / Economics / Demographics

By: Harry_Dent

Predictability.
People.

Those are the two keystones of my research and forecasting successes: cycles and demographics.

It can all be traced back to the day I was studying several charts that I’d laid out on my desk. I’d been looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average adjusted for inflation when I glanced up and spotted the Baby Boomer’s birth wave.
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Economics

Friday, September 15, 2017

Higher US Interest Rates May Force Higher Inflation Rates / Economics / Inflation

By: Dan_Amerman

Summary:

1) Financial analysis of the three way relationship between interest rates, inflation and the U.S. national debt.

2) Higher interest rates causing higher interest payments on the $20 trillion national debt would ordinarily cause soaring deficits over time.

3) Detailed analysis of the "loophole", which is that if inflation even moderately increases - then interest rates can rise without exploding the real debt.

4) This simultaneous increase in interest rates and inflation would have a major impact on all markets, as well as long term retirement planning.

5) The logical response to rising interest rates may be to sharpen one's focus on how to better deal with higher rates of inflation over the long term.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Harvey Will Reflect in Economic Data as Growth—That Might Mislead the Fed into Another Policy Error / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Hurricane Harvey wreaked havoc on South Texas and Louisiana. As a lifelong Texan, I have many friends in that region. They’ve lived through many storms and normally take what nature throws at them in stride.

Not this time.

I am seeing headlines calling this a thousand-year flood. It seems that over 100,000 homes in Houston alone were flooded. Harvey meant business. Recovering from this storm will take a long time and a lot of resources.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Soaring Inflation Plunges UK Economy Into Stagflation, Triggers Government Pay Cap Panic! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The consensus circus that the mainstream press journalists rely upon to produce their daily copy i.e. economists, have once more been caught by surprise as UK inflation rockets higher to 2.9% for August up from 2.6% for July. Now standing on the threshold of breaking above 3% as the implications of sterling's sharp drop in the wake of the Brexit vote continues to feed through to rising import prices and therefore providing persistent upwards pressure on shop prices as suppliers restock at much worse exchange rates that already depressed retailers such as the big supermarkets had delayed fully implementing that I have ben warning all year was likely to result in a crisis for the retail sector during 2017, that literally faces a perfect storm which could even result in a Woolworth's moment...

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Economics

Monday, September 11, 2017

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Damage, America Can’t Afford to Rebuild / Economics / US Debt

By: Raul_I_Meijer

A number of people have argued over the past few days that Hurricane Harvey will NOT boost the US housing market. As if any such argument would or should be required. Hurricane Irma will not provide any such boost either. News about the ‘resurrection’ of New Orleans post-Katrina has pretty much dried up, but we know scores of people there never returned, in most cases because they couldn’t afford to.

And Katrina took place 12 years ago, well before the financial crisis. How do you think this will play out today? Houston is a rich city, but that doesn’t mean it’s full of rich people only. Most homeowners in the city and its surroundings have no flood insurance; they can’t afford it. But they still lost everything. So how will they rebuild?

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Economics

Sunday, September 10, 2017

Another Demographic D-Day is Coming for Japan / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Harry_Dent

D-Day.

Demographic death day.

Maybe not as bloody as the battlefield in Normandy but equally as devastating in the long term.

And Japan is facing its second one.

Japan’s Baby Boom started to slow down in 1942 coming into World War II and peaked – forever – in 1949 after soldiers came home from war and made a lot of babies.
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Economics

Saturday, September 09, 2017

Deflation and the Markets; are deflationary forces here to stay / Economics / Deflation

By: Sol_Palha

Machines are worshipped because they are beautiful and valued because they confer power; they are hated because they are hideous and loathed because they impose slavery. Bertrand Russell

Manufacturing output continues to improve, even though the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. continues to decline and this trend will not stop.  While some Jobs have gone overseas, the new trend suggests that automation has eliminated and will continue to eliminate a plethora of jobs.  As this trend is in the early phase, the momentum will continue to build in the years to come.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 06, 2017

The Great Shift of Global Economic Power / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

BRIC economies continue to grow. In the late 2020s, the size of China’s economy will surpass that of the US. By the early 2030s, the BRICs’ combined economic power will surpass that of major advanced nations.

The BRICS Summit in Xiamen, Fujian province, signals the rising might of the large emerging economies, such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil. South Africa does not fulfill the criteria of a true BRIC economy - large population, strong growth record and catch-up potential - but it has historically played a key role in African governance.

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Economics

Saturday, September 02, 2017

Leading China Expert Lays Down 9 Major Trends That Now Drive The Chinese Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Leland Miller is a leading expert on China’s financial system and a good friend of mine.

They regularly interview (if memory serves correctly) about 2000 large Chinese companies in every sector to get a good idea of what is actually happening in the Chinese economy.

There is nothing else like their work, and anybody who is investing large sums or who just does business in China gladly pays the six-figure price to get access to their data and research.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

US GDP Growth Upwards Revision to 3.04%, BEA 2nd Quarter 2017 / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their second estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +3.04% annual rate, up +0.48% from their previous estimate and up +1.80% from the prior quarter.

Consumer spending was revised upward to a +2.27% annualized growth rate (up +0.34% from the previous estimate and up +0.95% from the prior quarter). The inventory contribution continued to be essentially neutral (+0.02), while the previous growth in commercial fixed investment was revised upward (to +0.58%). Governmental spending was revised back into contraction (-0.05%), and the growth rates for both exports (+0.45%) and imports (-0.23%) moderated.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

15 Events That Could Trigger the Next Recession—And None Of Them Are Likely Now / Economics / Recession 2018

By: John_Mauldin

In writing my latest Thoughts from the Frontline, I reached out to my contacts looking for an uber-bull—someone utterly convinced that the market is on solid ground, with good evidence for their view.

Fortunately, a good friend who must remain nameless shared with me an August 4 slide deck from Krishna Memani, Chief Investment Officer of Oppenheimer Funds.

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