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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, September 24, 2016

US Economy GDP Growth Estimates in Free-Fall: FRBNY Nowcast 2.26% Q3, 1.22% Q4 / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

GDP estimates for third and fourth quarter are now in a free-fall.

Last Friday the FRBNY Nowcast was in a blackout period because of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

Today we see estimates tor the last two weeks. Let's also take a look at my guess of the estimates vs. how the estimates came in.

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Economics

Friday, September 23, 2016

Hedonics, Food, and Pluralistic Ignorance / Economics / Inflation

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Inflation is alive and well – despite what we hear from the mainstream. Due to pluralistic ignorance, it persists much longer than anyone would have ever predicted.

From Wikipedia:

Pluralistic ignorance 

“In social psychology, pluralistic ignorance is a situation in which a majority of group members privately reject a norm, but incorrectly assume that most others accept it, and therefore go along with it.[1] This is also described as ‘no one believes, but everyone thinks that everyone believes’.”

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Economics

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Japan’s Economy Impending Monetary Exhaustion  / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Japan’s monetary gamble and Abenomics are approaching the end of the road. Neither Brussels nor Washington is immune to the adverse consequences of Tokyo's monetary exhaustion, says Dan Steinbock.

Recently, Japan’s second quarter GDP growth was revised up to 0.7 percent, after four consecutive quarters of stagnation. But don’t set your hopes too high.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

U.S. Economy - We Can’t Party Like it’s 1999 / Economics / US Economy

By: Rodney_Johnson

I came of age in the early ’80s, when Prince was king of the airwaves (pun intended). His smash hit “1999” had an end-of-days feel to it, asking everyone to “party like it’s 1999.”

As time went on and the end of the century loomed, the world grew nervous about what would happen when we reached the year 2000, or Y2K. In the end, none of the doomsday predictions came true. The computers still worked, air traffic control still functioned, hospitals and banks carried on.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

BrExit UK Inflation CPI, RPI Forecast 2016, 2017 / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Going into the EU referendum the vested interest academic economists from the Bank of England down were repeatedly issuing dire warnings of a plunge in sterling that would send inflation soaring that would trigger a series of interest rate hikes all whilst the economy collapsed. The prices in the shops as measured by official UK CPI Inflation was hugging near 0% at a rate of just 0.3% for May 2016 data, meanwhile RPI which is the closest official measure to real inflation was already above 1% at 1.4%, which are set against the demand adjusted Real UK inflation rate of 1.8%. So official UK price Inflation was already well above 1% and trending towards 2% before BrExit.

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Economics

Monday, September 19, 2016

Fascist Business Model: Reich Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The Fascist Business Model incorporates all the worse elements of Keynesian economics, a broken fallacious school of thought. The model also integrates a vast system of economic heresy, put forth as public address dogma. All their messages are wrong. They are instead aligned with support of the power structure where big banks conduct self-dealing and print money for themselves.

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Economics

Monday, September 19, 2016

China Is Digging Itself into a Deeper Hole / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Chinese “depreciation” and all its ensuing hysteria occurred just about a year ago. It has also been a about a year since I co-wrote a book on China with Worth Wray titled A Great Leap Forward?

The title was meant to be ironic. The original Great Leap Forward was imposed by Mao in the 1960s. It was one of the most economically disastrous times in Chinese history. Food production increased, yet 30 million people starved. China underwent a true financial and economic crisis due to the insanity of central control of markets.

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Economics

Sunday, September 18, 2016

American Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andy_Sutton

Over the years, we have written multiple times about the system of Keynesian economics, its dysfunction, and the fact that it is a pure lie. This has all been well-documented from studies, observations, right down to remarks made by Keynes himself regarding the long-term viability of his new faux economics.

However, from Keynesian economics, there has morphed another type of economics. A more ignorant and destructive type of scarce resource allocation – which is what economics really is after all – and this type is no respecter of persons, intellect, position, or influence. We could easily call it the economics of entitlement, but that would be misleading because when most think of entitlements, they think about Social Security, Medicare, and other government programs. No, that’s not where the sense of American (and global) entitlement ends. It ends with the average working stiff who is paying 20% on a $40,000 / 7 -year truck loan with a balloon payment because his buddies told him he wasn’t cool if he didn’t have such a truck. There are zillions of other such examples of financial stupidity, however, nobody is bothering to tell these folks that they’re committing financial suicide. The banks certainly aren’t going to tell them. The government? Talk about the kettle and the pot. Or maybe there is too much legal pot. We certainly can’t legislate common sense, but we sure try to legislate away the consequences of foolish behavior.

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Economics

Monday, September 12, 2016

Why the Greater Recession Will be Dollar Bearish / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Michael_Pento

The Great Recession of 2008 provided markets with an interesting irony: As the US economy was collapsing under the weight of crumbling home prices, investors curiously flocked to the US dollar under the guise of “The Safety Trade.” 

But the truth is that investors weren’t running into the dollar for safety, what they were actually doing was unwinding a carry trade. In a carry trade an investor borrows a depreciating currency that offers a relatively low interest rate and uses those funds to purchase an appreciating currency that offers the potential for higher returns on its sovereign debt and stock market. The trade’s objective is to capture the difference between rates, while also benefitting from the currency that is rising in value against the borrowed (shorted) funds.

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Economics

Friday, September 09, 2016

Money and The Rats of NIHM / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

“When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion; when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing; when you see money flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors; when you see that men get richer by graft

and pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you; when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice you may know that your society is doomed.”– Ayn Rand

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Economics

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Failure of Inflation Targeting?! / Economics / Inflation

By: Axel_Merk

It ain't working. Eight years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, central bank chiefs suggest they have saved the world, but have they? We argue central banks have become part of the problem, not the solution. At its core, their indoctrinated focus on inflation may well do more harm than good, with potentially perilous implications for investors.

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Economics

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Hyperinflation Versus Deflationary Collapse / Economics / Economic Collapse

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

If the thunder don’t get you, then the lightning will… The Grateful Dead, The Wheel(lyrics)

In the world of phenomena, everything has a beginning and an end; and today, the bankers’ endgame is moving closer to its inevitable resolution and demise. The question is no longer if, it is when and how.

The relationship between paper money and gold is causal in central banking’s collapse. When paper money was backed by gold, it (1) gave the bankers’ paper money its value and (2) constrained the ability of governments to print limitless amounts of money, as governments needed money backed by gold to balance trade deficits, i.e. value for value.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 07, 2016

BrExit UK Economic Collapse Evaporates, GDP Forecasts for 2016 and 2017 / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Its now two months on from when the establishment elite prophesied a post BrExit economic collapse apocalypse, however subsequently a stream of economic data on the UK economy continues to paint a picture that is a the exact extreme opposite to that which the establishment and their vested interests had propagandised both before and immediately after the EU referendum vote, a message literally warning of economic collapse as the following warnings of doom from David Cameron, George Osborne and Mark Carney illustrate and that which many still blindly cling onto to this very day despite reality starting to dawn of a UK economy that is literally soaring into the stratosphere by recording unprecedented gains across several economic measures into and during the month of August.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 06, 2016

GDP is more of a fuzzy reflection of the Economy / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: John_Mauldin

GDP is a fairly recent statistic. Though it is malleable in its construction, it can be contentious in its application. Yet the media tend to release GDP numbers as if they are an accurate reflection of the general economy.

GDP is one economic model among several that could serve the purpose. But its use can lead to policies that reflect the thinking of a particular school of economic, monetary, and fiscal policy.

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Economics

Monday, September 05, 2016

UK Economy Post BrExit Boom, Bank of England, Treasury Economists, Journalists ALL WRONG! / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Two months on from the BrExit economic collapse apocalypse prophecies a stream of economic data on the UK economy continues to paint a picture that is a the exact extreme opposite to that which the establishment and their vested interests painted both before and immediately after the EU referendum vote, one of recession or even economic collapse that many still blindly cling onto to this very day despite reality stating that the UK economy is literally soaring into the stratosphere by recording unprecedented gains across several measures for the month of August.

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