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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, December 02, 2016

We Are Putting Off the Inevitable / Economics / Recession 2017

By: John_Mauldin

Only two presidents in history did not see a recession, and they were inaugurated after single-term presidents. In every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency, there’s been a recession. This means there is a 100% chance of recession for the new president.

My friend Raoul Pal, in his latest Global Macro Investor, talks about the potential for a recession in 2017:

The following chart shows every recession since 1910 (in yellow) with the new president after a two-term election marked in white and the new presidents after a single-term presidency in red. Wilson and Eisenhower appear as both. Only Coolidge saw more than a year (sixteen months) from his second-term election and the onset of the subsequent recession at the end of WWI…

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Economics

Friday, December 02, 2016

Macroeconomic Cycles & Demographics - A Fuse, An Explosive and The Igniting Catalyst / Economics / Demographics

By: Gordon_T_Long

Investors need to focus on the two key long term structural changes now underway which are going to ignite destructive global dislocations through early 2020. To better understand why this is going to occur we need to place them in context by first examining the major economic cycles currently underway.

Harry Dent's Macroeconomic Cycles & Demographics

This initial cycle chart is from an in-depth discussion I had with Harry Dent earlier this year. Since leaving Harvard, Harry has spent most of his adult working life  studying demographics and cycles.

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Economics

Thursday, December 01, 2016

Burn the Flags, Can Trump Salvage The Sinking US Economic Ship? / Economics / US Economy

By: Jeff_Berwick

When Nobel Peace Prize winner, Barack O’Bomber, was sworn into office on January 20, 2009, the national debt was $10.62 trillion.

The United States currently has a national debt total of over $19.9 Trillion according to the US national debt clock as of the writing of this blog. That’s an astonishing 87% increase in less than an 8 year period.

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Economics

Thursday, December 01, 2016

US Economic Data - These Were Supposed To Be Hillary’s Numbers! / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Rubino

Good headlines just keep coming. The Chicago PMI index of Midwest economic activity jumps to its highest level in two years. The ADP employment report shows 216,000 new jobs added in November. US Q2 GDP growth is upgraded to a completely acceptable rate of 3.2%.

Very nice numbers all. And – had the election gone a different way – a big help in easing the transition from one Democrat administration to another. Success breeding success.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Economic Imperialism Could Lead to China’s Demise / Economics / China Economy

By: Rodney_Johnson

In 2007, a Chinese company bought Mount Toromocho in Peru. That’s right. A mountain, in another country.

It’s more than half the height of Mount Everest, but aesthetic beauty wasn’t a factor. Beneath the mountain’s surface sits two billion tons of copper, one of the largest reserves in the world. Through a state-owned company, the Chinese government secured access to yet another natural resource overseas.

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Economics

Monday, November 28, 2016

If Trump Does This, We Will Win / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

No matter who won the presidency, the economic way forward was not going to be easy. The national debt and deficit must be brought under control, or we will face a crisis.

Avoiding that crisis—even if it is 10 years out—is important. The solution doesn’t have to be implemented all at once. But there has to be a clear trajectory along the lines of the Clinton/Gingrich budget compromises. Those gave us balanced budgets and deficit reduction.

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Economics

Monday, November 28, 2016

Public Infrastructure – Welcome to the World of Waste, Fraud, and Abuse / Economics / Infrastructure

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Economic policy is subject to fads and fashions. The most recent economic-policy fad is public infrastructure. Its advocates include progressives on the “left” – like President Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders – and populists on the “right” – like President-elect Trump. They tell us to take the chains off fiscal austerity and spend – spend a lot – on public works. They allege that this elixir will cure many, if not all, of our economic ills. Let’s take a look at their arguments and evidence.
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Economics

Thursday, November 24, 2016

Another US Election Year, Another Bunch Of Fake Economic Growth Numbers / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: John_Rubino

Some pretty good economic reports have energized various parts of the financial markets lately. Consumer spending is up, GDP is exceeding expectations and even factory orders, that perennial downer, popped this morning.

In response the dollar is soaring and interest rates are at breaking out of their multi-decade down-channel. The economy is clearly recovering, implying a return to normality. Right?

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Economics

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

The Winners and Losers of a Global Trade War / Economics / Global Economy

By: Harry_Dent

My research in recent months has focused increasingly on how the surprise Brexit vote and Trump’s victory are actually not that surprising after all. They’re a clear sign of a growing number of everyday people rejecting the massive globalization trend that has surged since World War II.

The world “shrinking” seemed to be a win-win at first. Countries could focus on what they do best and export to others while importing what they need. And, yes, longer-term that does work, as Adam Smith first espoused in 1776.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

The Trump Administration Winter is Coming / Economics / Recession 2017

By: John_Mauldin

How on God’s green earth are we supposed to make sense, from an economic and investment portfolio view, of what is happening?

A recession could change everything

It has been quite a while since we have had a recession. When we do have one, it’s going to further limit our choices.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

How China And Trump Era Will Define Free Trade In Asia Pacific / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

After the Trump triumph, US-led free trade plans are shelved, which leaves China an opportunity to redefine trade in Asia Pacific.

During his campaign, President-elect Donald Trump embraced a protectionist stance on trade issues and called the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a “disaster.” More recently, he has pledged that the US will quit the TPP on his first day in the White House.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Krugman's Aliens Have Arrived - They Are Called "Trumponomists" / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Gordon_T_Long

Gordon T Long, Co-Founder of MATASII.com sat down with John Rubino to get his views on what the new Trump Administration and its "Trumponomics" policies will mean to the markets and investment strategies in 2017.  Here are a few of John's current views on some of the Key Economic headwinds facing "Trumponomics":

A NEW ELECTORAL CLASS

The reason anti-establish politicians like Trump are gaining popularity according to John is because people, more and more, are feeling "the big systems no longer works for the people anymore!"

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Economics

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Did The 'Trump Tantrum' Just Trigger The Next US Recession? / Economics / Recession 2017

By: Gordon_T_Long

Trump May Have "Pricked" The Global Bond Bubble

Trump called during the campaign for a $1 trillion infrastructure package, $5 trillion in tax cuts, increases in military spending and the repeal ObamaCare, which could cost more than $350 billion over 10 years. At the same time, the president-elect has promised “not to touch” Social Security or make cuts to Medicare. The moment Trump was elected the markets immediately reacted to this potential massive fiscal injection. Bond values plummeted as yields spiked.

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Economics

Monday, November 21, 2016

Trump Can Fix US Economy by Embracing Biotech / Economics / BioTech

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK COX : The presidential campaign made one fact very clear. Most of the media and public aren't focused on economic growth.

Growth powers and funds everything else. Just take a look at the enormous federal deficit and you’ll see that economic health keeps taking a back seat to short-term goals.

Yes, John Maynard Keynes made a case for using debt to stimulate the economy. But he never said anything about permanent deficits. And that is our current practice. The result is that taxpayers’ options will be curtailed in the future.

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Economics

Monday, November 21, 2016

Obstacles to Trump’s Economic Growth Plans / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

For the second time in a few weeks (see ‘End of Growth’ Sparks Wide Discontent), former British diplomat Alastair Crooke quotes me extensively, and I return the favor. Crooke here attempts to list -some of- the difficulties Donald Trump will face in executing the -economic- measures he promised to take in his campaign. Crooke argues that, as I’ve indicated repeatedly, for instance in America is The Poisoned Chalice, the financial crisis that never ended may be one of his biggest problems.

Here, again, is Alastair Crooke:

We are plainly at a pivotal moment. President-Elect Trump wants to make dramatic changes in his nation’s course. His battle cry of wanting to make “America Great Again” evokes – and almost certainly is intended to evoke – the epic American economic expansions of the Nineteenth and Twentieth centuries.

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