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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, November 20, 2017

Learning from Money Supply of the 1980s: The Power and Irony of “MDuh” / Economics / Money Supply

By: F_F_Wiley

Forget about big hair, Ray-Bans, and Donkey Kong. Don’t even think about Live-Aid, Thriller, and E.T. Above all else, the 1980s were the gravy days of the money supply aggregates.

Beginning in late 1979, the Fed built its policy approach around the aggregates—primarily M1 but occasionally M2, and policy makers also monitored M3 while experimenting with M1B and, later, MZM. But those were just the “official” figures. Economists and pundits debated the Fed’s preferred measures while concocting their own home-brewed variations.

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Economics

Friday, November 17, 2017

The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar - Partial Indexing / Economics / Inflation

By: Dan_Amerman

There is a lot of advice out there about Social Security - most of which is based on Social Security being fully inflation indexed.

However, as we will establish in this first in a series of analyses, Social Security is only partially inflation indexed. As a matter of design it does not fully keep up with inflation.

Sound like an obscure difference?

"Partial inflation indexing" is little understood by the general public, but it could transform your standard of living - along with the quality of life of millions of others - in the years and decades to come. Indeed, partial inflation indexing can mean effectively having only 11 months of benefit purchasing power- or even 8 months -  to cover 12 months of expenses each year.

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Economics

Thursday, November 16, 2017

A Generational Reset That Will Redistribute Wealth to the Bottom 60% Is Near / Economics / Demographics

By: John_Mauldin

Billionaire founder of top hedge fund Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio got where he is by having keen insight into both human nature and economic trends.

Occasionally, he shares some of his wisdom publicly.

In one of his recent articles, Dalio argues that it is a serious mistake to think you can analyze or understand “the” economy because we now have two of them.

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Economics

Friday, November 10, 2017

US-China Trade at Global Crossroads / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Despite “America First” policies, President Trump’s economic agenda needs expanding trade with China.

President Donald Trump began his grueling 12-day Asia tour amid US Special Counsel’s first indictments, which cast a shadow over the White House’s future.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 08, 2017

Over Two Thirds of Global GDP Is Entering an Inflationary Shock / Economics / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

The world is careening towards an inflationary shock.

As was the case with the beginning of the Housing Crash, few are noticing what’s happening. And even fewer realize the true scale of what’s about to take place.

Below is a chart you have to see.

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Economics

Thursday, November 02, 2017

More Trade Barriers Are Coming—Make Sure You’re On The Right Side / Economics / Protectionism

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : If you think economics is boring, bring up “free trade” and see what happens. I guarantee sparks will fly.

Some people preach free trade’s many blessings. Others curse the very idea, insisting free trade hurts honest working people.

Lately, this has become more than a theoretical argument.

President Trump came into office pledging to renegotiate or cancel trade agreements he thought unfair to the US. Meanwhile, the UK seems headed toward a “hard Brexit” from the European Union.

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Economics

Thursday, November 02, 2017

The Magnitude of Job Loss We Will See in the Next 20 Years Is Staggering / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

In the next 20 years, we will see more change and improvement than we’ve seen in the last hundred. Think where we were 100 years ago and how much has changed since then. That much and more is going to happen in the next two decades.

Global society really is going to transform that fast.

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Economics

Monday, October 23, 2017

Germany’s Delegation To Russia Signals That Merkel Is Looking For New Allies / Economics / Russia

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : A delegation of executives from major German corporations recently met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Such delegations are not unusual. Sometimes it is routine, sometimes a courtesy. But occasionally, it has significance. In the case of Russia-Germany relations, such meetings are always potentially significant.

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Economics

Friday, October 20, 2017

Here’s the US’s Biggest Vulnerability in NAFTA Negotiations / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND ALLISON FEDIRKA : As the fourth round of NAFTA negotiations comes to an end, the agreement's survival has once again been brought into question.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to strike a new deal with just Canada. Mexico downplayed the threat, saying it would walk away from negotiations if the new terms brought by the US put it at a disadvantage. For their part, the Canadians have been quiet.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Deflation Basics Series: The Quantity Theory of Money / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Here's our challenge.

In order to be aware of the investment pitfalls and opportunities that deflation can bring, we must first understand the basic elements of why it occurs. So our challenge is to try and make monetary economics, a subject that most people would find duller than watching paint dry on a wall, understandable and, dare I say it, fun! It's a big ask but we like a test, and so here is the first in our Deflation Basics Series -- The Quantity Theory of Money.

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Economics

Monday, October 16, 2017

Boomers Are Not Saving Enough for Retirement, Neither Is the Government / Economics / Demographics

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : Wall Street endlessly gushes about retirement. Its TV commercials show how wonderful life will be in our golden years—when we are old, yet still healthy and wealthy enough to go hang-gliding every day.

Meanwhile, out here in the real world, most working-age Americans don’t want to talk or even think about retirement. Often this is because they know they aren't saving enough and probably will have to work until they drop dead.

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Economics

Monday, October 16, 2017

Really Bad Ideas - The Fed Should Have And Defend An Inflation Target / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Rubino

Central banks in general and the Fed in particular are struggling to understand a world in which they’ve thrown everything they have at the economy without generating “beneficial” inflation. Their confusion can be traced back to some profoundly false assumptions.

Some Thoughts And Assertions
An inflation target implies that modest inflation is actually a good thing. This is simply wrong. Inflation is a “stealth tax” through which governments confiscate a bit of savers’ wealth each year without admitting it. If explained honestly such a trick would be a political loser always and everywhere.

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Economics

Saturday, October 14, 2017

Is U.S. Unemployment at the Bottom? / Economics / Unemployment

By: Donald_W_Dony

The U.S. Unemployment rate and the markets have a direct opposite connection to each other. When one goes down (unemployment), the other (stock market) goes up.

The opposite is also true.

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Economics

Friday, October 06, 2017

Eastern Europe Is Becoming a Target for Capital from All Around the World / Economics / Eastern Europe

By: John_Mauldin

Eastern Europe has showed some impressive growth rates over the past decade.

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Economics

Thursday, September 28, 2017

The Koyaanisqatsi Economy / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The film Koyaanisqatsi was released in 1982. The title means ‘life out of balance’ in the language of the Hopi, a Native American tribe who live(d) mainly in what is now north-east Arizona. It is directed by Godfrey Reggio with music by Philip Glass and cinematography by Ron Fricke. There are no actors, and no dialogue. Philip Glass’s music underlies a series of film fragments that contrast the beauty of American nature with the noise and pollution mankind has added to it. Wikipedia:

The film consists primarily of slow motion and time-lapse footage of cities and many natural landscapes across the United States. The visual tone poem contains neither dialogue nor a vocalized narration: its tone is set by the juxtaposition of images and music. Reggio explained the lack of dialogue by stating “it’s not for lack of love of the language that these films have no words. It’s because, from my point of view, our language is in a state of vast humiliation. It no longer describes the world in which we live.”

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Economics

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

The Fed’s 2% Inflation Target Is Pointless / Economics / Inflation

By: Kelsey_Williams

Within the Federal Reserve sometime in 1996, a discussion took place among FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members regarding the subject of inflation targeting. Federal Reserve District Governor (San Francisco) Janet Yellen believed that a little inflation “greases the wheels” of the labor market. Her preferred “target” was 2%. She asked Chairman (at the time) Alan Greenspan his preference. 

The Chairman replied.  “I would say the number is zero, if inflation is properly measured.”

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Economics

Monday, September 18, 2017

Inflation Lies, Lies and OMG More Lies / Economics / Inflation

By: James_Quinn

“There are three types of lies — lies, damn lies, and statistics.” – Benjamin Disraeli

Every month the government apparatchiks at the Bureau of Lies and Scams (BLS) dutifully announces inflation is still running below 2%. Janet Yellen then gives a speech where she notes her concern inflation is too low and she needs to keep interest rates near zero to save humanity from the scourge of too low inflation. I don’t know how I could survive without 2% inflation reducing my purchasing power.

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Economics

Saturday, September 16, 2017

Predicting the Future of the U.S. and the World / Economics / Demographics

By: Harry_Dent

Predictability.
People.

Those are the two keystones of my research and forecasting successes: cycles and demographics.

It can all be traced back to the day I was studying several charts that I’d laid out on my desk. I’d been looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average adjusted for inflation when I glanced up and spotted the Baby Boomer’s birth wave.
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Economics

Friday, September 15, 2017

Higher US Interest Rates May Force Higher Inflation Rates / Economics / Inflation

By: Dan_Amerman

Summary:

1) Financial analysis of the three way relationship between interest rates, inflation and the U.S. national debt.

2) Higher interest rates causing higher interest payments on the $20 trillion national debt would ordinarily cause soaring deficits over time.

3) Detailed analysis of the "loophole", which is that if inflation even moderately increases - then interest rates can rise without exploding the real debt.

4) This simultaneous increase in interest rates and inflation would have a major impact on all markets, as well as long term retirement planning.

5) The logical response to rising interest rates may be to sharpen one's focus on how to better deal with higher rates of inflation over the long term.

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Economics

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Harvey Will Reflect in Economic Data as Growth—That Might Mislead the Fed into Another Policy Error / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Hurricane Harvey wreaked havoc on South Texas and Louisiana. As a lifelong Texan, I have many friends in that region. They’ve lived through many storms and normally take what nature throws at them in stride.

Not this time.

I am seeing headlines calling this a thousand-year flood. It seems that over 100,000 homes in Houston alone were flooded. Harvey meant business. Recovering from this storm will take a long time and a lot of resources.

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