Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Trump and Coronavirus Pandemic Final US Catastrophe 2021 - 19th Jan 21
How To Find Market Momentum Trades for Explosive Gains - 19th Jan 21
Cryptos: 5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity - 19th Jan 21
Who Will NEXT Be Removed from the Internet? - 19th Jan 21
This Small Company Could Revolutionize The Trillion-Dollar Drug Sector - 19th Jan 21
Gold/SPX Ratio and the Gold Stock Case - 18th Jan 21
More Stock Market Speculative Signs, Energy Rebound, Commodities Breakout - 18th Jan 21
Higher Yields Hit Gold Price, But for How Long? - 18th Jan 21
Some Basic Facts About Forex Trading - 18th Jan 21
Custom Build PC 2021 - Ryzen 5950x, RTX 3080, 64gb DDR4 Specs - Scan Computers 3SX Order Day 11 - 17th Jan 21
UK Car MOT Covid-19 Lockdown Extension 2021 - 17th Jan 21
Why Nvidia Is My “Slam Dunk” Stock Investment for the Decade - 16th Jan 21
Three Financial Markets Price Drivers in a Globalized World - 16th Jan 21
Sheffield Turns Coronavirus Tide, Covid-19 Infections Half Rest of England, implies Fast Pandemic Recovery - 16th Jan 21
Covid and Democrat Blue Wave Beats Gold - 15th Jan 21
On Regime Change, Reputations, the Markets, and Gold and Silver - 15th Jan 21
US Coronavirus Pandemic Final Catastrophe 2021 - 15th Jan 21
The World’s Next Great Onshore Oil Discovery Could Be Here - 15th Jan 21
UK Coronavirus Final Pandemic Catastrophe 2021 - 14th Jan 21
Here's Why Blind Contrarianism Investing Failed in 2020 - 14th Jan 21
US Yield Curve Relentlessly Steepens, Whilst Gold Price Builds a Handle - 14th Jan 21
NEW UK MOT Extensions or has my Car Plate Been Cloned? - 14th Jan 21
How to Save Money While Decorating Your First House - 14th Jan 21
Car Number Plate Cloned Detective Work - PY16 JXV - 14th Jan 21
Big Oil Missed This, Now It Could Be Worth Billions - 14th Jan 21
Are you a Forex trader who needs a bank account? We have the solution! - 14th Jan 21
Finetero Review – Accurate and Efficient Stock Trading Services? - 14th Jan 21
Gold Price Big Picture Trend Forecast 2021 - 13th Jan 21
Are Covid Lockdowns Bullish or Bearish for Stocks? FTSE 100 in Focus - 13th Jan 21
CONgress "Insurrection" Is Just the Latest False Flag Event from the Globalists - 13th Jan 21
Reflation Trade Heating Up - 13th Jan 21
The Most Important Oil Find Of The Next Decade Could Be Here - 13th Jan 21
Work From Home £10,000 Office Tour – Workspace + Desk Setup 2021 Top Tips - 12th Jan 21
Collect a Bitcoin Dividend Without Owning the King of Cryptos - 12th Jan 21
The BAN Hotlist trade setups show incredible success at the start of 2021, learn how you can too! - 12th Jan 21
Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold – How Much Are They Worth? - 12th Jan 21
SPX Short-term Top Imminent - 12th Jan 21
Is This The Most Exciting Oil Play Of 2021? - 12th Jan 21
Why 2021 Will Be the Year Self-Driving Cars Go Mainstream - 11th Jan 21
Gold Began 2021 With a Bang, Only to Plunge - 11th Jan 21
How to Test Your GPU Temperatures - Running Too Hot - GTX 1650 - Overclockers UK - 11th Jan 21
Life Lesson - The Early Bird Catches the Worm - 11th Jan 21
Precious Metals rally early in 2021 - 11th Jan 21
The Most Exciting Oil Stock For 2021 - 11th Jan 21
Financial Market Forecasts 2021: Navigation in Uncharted Waters - 10th Jan 21
An Urgent Message to All Conservatives, Right-Wingers and Patriots - 10th Jan 21
Despite Signs to the Contrary, Gold Price at or Near Top - 10th Jan 21 -
Ultimate Guide On The 6 Basic Types Of Index Funds - 10th Jan 21
Getting Vaccinated at TESCO - Covid-19 Vaccinations at UK Supermarket Pharmacies and Chemists - 10th Jan 21
Cheers for the 2021 Stock Market and These "Great Expectations" - 9th Jan 21
How to Plan Your Child With Better Education - 9th Jan 21
How To Find The Best Casino - 9th Jan 21
Gold Is Still a Bargain Buy - 8th Jan 20
Gold Price Set to Soar as Hyperinflation Looms - 8th Jan 21
Have Big Dreams? Here's How to Pay for Them - 8th Jan 21
Will the Fed Support Gold Prices in 2021? - 8th Jan 21
Stocks trading strategies for beginners - 8th Jan 21
Who is Buying and Selling Stocks in 2021 - 8th Jan 21
Clap for NHS Heroes 2021 as Incompetent Government Loses Control of Virus Again! - 8th Jan 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stocks and Commodities Markets Secular and Cyclical Trend Indicators

Commodities / Cycles Analysis Apr 17, 2009 - 05:14 PM GMT

By: Tim_Wood

Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs we should all remember, in early 2008, commodities were on fire as they moved up into their parabolic tops.   Of late we have seen a rebound and based on the e-mails that I’ve been receiving, the crowd is once again turning bullish.    Personally, my analysis tells me that commodities are now entering another very critical juncture and how they handle this test will set the stage for months to come.   


In review, the CRB topped on July 3, 2008 with an intra-day high at 473.97.   By December 5, 2008 the CRB had dropped 56 percent to 208.58 and the final low for the move occurred on February 24, 2009 at 200.16 for a total decline of 57.76 percent.   On July 11, 2008 crude oil hit an all time high at 147.27 and the following week my intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator triggered an intermediate-term sell signal that remained intact until this past January.   Crude oil finally found a bottom on January 20, 2009 at 32.70 for a total decline of 77.80 percent.   Gasoline also peaked on July 11, 2008 at 3.63 and a bottom was not made until December 24, 2008 at .785 for a total decline of 78.37 percent.   The top in gold came in March 2008 at 1,033 and with a bottom in October 2008 at 681 for a total decline of 34 percent.    The XAU also made its top in March 2008 at 209.27 with a minor bottom in May and a secondary high in July.   The next low was then reached on October 24, 2008 at 63.52 for a total decline of 69.65 percent.  For your convenience I have included these sectors below. 


 





For the record, yes, these tops and declines that followed were called using cyclical analysis, statistical analysis and my intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator.   Also, each of these recent lows was identified in the same manner.   Since the recent intermediate-term low the CRB has bounced 14.67 percent.  Crude oil has bounced some 67 percent from its low of 32.70 into its recent high at 54.66 and gasoline bounced 95.80 percent from its low of 78.5 into its recent high of 1.537.   From the October low at 681 into the February high at 1,007.50 gold bounced 47.94 percent.   From the October low at 63.52 into the recent high of 142.14, the XAU was up a fat 123.77 percent.   Point being, when we put a pencil to it, we have seen a fairly decent bounce out of the most recent lows.  

However, we have now moved to a very important cyclical hurdle or juncture for these markets.  The key for the longer-term outlook of these markets is how well they handle this hurdle.   At this time we do not have enough evidence to know for sure if the most recent weakness will turn out to be a buying opportunity or if it is marking the beginning of the end for the recent intermediate-term advance.  I can tell you this, caution is advised at this juncture and we should have an answer in the coming few weeks.  The key, from my perspective, will be the behavior of the intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator and the statistics.    As long as the CTI and the statistics are positive, then the intermediate-term move up must still be considered to be intact and higher prices will remain possible.  But, any further weakness that also turns the intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator negative and/or that causes the statistics on the commodity complex to unfold in a negative light should be followed by yet more weakness.  In addition to being at an important cyclical juncture, the other danger I see here is the bullish sentiment and when taken together I do not like the mix.  Caution is advised as I await the ultimate confirmation of the indicators.    

As for equities, the Dow theory primary trend change that was first confirmed on November 21, 2007 still remains intact.  From a Dow theory perspective, the recent bounce must still be considered a counter-trend bounce.  The most current Dow theory chart can be found below.   The key to this bounce is also the intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator and as long as it remains positive, higher prices will remain possible.   But, once this indicator turns down, the risk will then return to the downside.  


I have begun doing free Friday market commentary that is available at www.cyclesman.info/Articles.htm so please begin joining me there. Should you be interested in more in depth analysis that provides intermediate-term turn points utilizing the Cycle Turn Indicator, which has done a fabulous job, on stock market, the dollar, bonds, gold, silver, oil, gasoline, and more, those details are available in the monthly research letter and short-term updates. We have called every turn in commodities, the dollar and the stock market. I have covering the details as to what's next with the stock market, the dollar and commodities with the latest in the October research letter and the short-term updates. Don't be fooled by the hype. A subscription includes access to the monthly issues of Cycles News & Views covering the Dow theory, and very detailed statistical based analysis plus updates 3 times a week. Also see www.cyclesman.info/testimonials.htm

By Tim Wood
Cyclesman.com

© 2009 Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved
Tim Wood specialises in Dow Theory and Cycles Analysis - Should you be interested in analysis that provides intermediate-term turn points utilizing the Cycle Turn Indicator as well as coverage on the Dow theory, other price quantification methods and all the statistical data surrounding the 4-year cycle, then please visit www.cyclesman.com for more details. A subscription includes access to the monthly issues of Cycles News & Views covering the stock market, the dollar, bonds and gold. I also cover other areas of interest at important turn points such as gasoline, oil, silver, the XAU and recently I have even covered corn. I also provide updates 3 times a week plus additional weekend updates on the Cycle Turn Indicator on most all areas of concern. I also give specific expectations for turn points of the short, intermediate and longer-term cycles based on historical quantification.

Tim Wood Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules