Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
The US Dollar is the Driver of the Gold & Silver Sectors - 28th Jul 21
Fed: Murderer of Markets and the Middle Class - 28th Jul 21
Gold And Silver – Which Will Have An Explosive Price Rally And Which Will Have A Sustained One? - 28th Jul 21
I Guess The Stock Market Does Not Fear Covid - So Should You? - 28th Jul 21
Eight Do’s and Don’ts For Options Traders - 28th Jul 21
Chasing Value in Unloved by Markets Small Cap Biotech Stocks for the Long-run - 27th Jul 21
Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Biden Propaganda - 27th Jul 21
Gold Investors Wavering - 27th Jul 21
Bogdance - How Binance Scams Futures Traders With Fake Bitcoin Prices to Run Limits and Margin Calls - 27th Jul 21
SPX Going for the Major Stock Market Top? - 27th Jul 21
What Is HND and How It Will Help Your Career Growth? - 27th Jul 21
5 Mobile Apps Day Traders Should Know About - 27th Jul 21
Global Stock Market Investing: Here's the Message of Consumer "Overconfidence" - 25th Jul 21
Gold’s Behavior in Various Parallel Inflation Universes - 25th Jul 21
Indian Delta Variant INFECTED! How infectious, Deadly, Do Vaccines Work? Avoid the PCR Test? - 25th Jul 21
Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model to Infinity and Beyond Price Forecasts - 25th Jul 21
Bitcoin Black Swan - GOOGLE! - 24th Jul 21
Stock Market Stalling Signs? Taking a Look Under the Hood of US Equities - 24th Jul 21
Biden’s Dangerous Inflation Denials - 24th Jul 21
How does CFD trading work - 24th Jul 21
Junior Gold Miners: New Yearly Lows! Will We See a Further Drop? - 23rd Jul 21
Best Forex Strategy for Consistent Profits - 23rd Jul 21
Popular Forex Brokers That You Might Want to Check Out - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Black Swan - Will Crypto Currencies Get Banned? - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Price Enters Stage #4 Excess Phase Peak Breakdown – Where To Next? - 22nd Jul 21
Powell Gave Congress Dovish Signs. Will It Help Gold Price? - 22nd Jul 21
What’s Next For Gold Is Always About The US Dollar - 22nd Jul 21
URGENT! ALL Windows 10 Users Must Do this NOW! Windows Image Backup Before it is Too Late! - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Price CRASH, How to SELL BTC at $40k! Real Analysis vs Shill Coin Pumper's and Clueless Newbs - 21st Jul 21
Emotional Stock Traders React To Recent Market Rotation – Are You Ready For What’s Next? - 21st Jul 21
Killing Driveway Weeds FAST with a Pressure Washer - 8 months Later - Did it work?- Block Paving Weeds - 21st Jul 21
Post-Covid Stimulus Payouts & The US Fed Push Global Investors Deeper Into US Value Bubble - 21st Jul 21
What is Social Trading - 21st Jul 21
Would Transparency Help Crypto? - 21st Jul 21
AI Predicts US Tech Stocks Price Valuations Three Years Ahead (ASVF) - 20th Jul 21
Gold Asks: Has Inflation Already Peaked? - 20th Jul 21
FREE PASS to Analysis and Trend forecasts of 50+ Global Markets by Elliott Wave International - 20th Jul 21
Nissan to Create 1000s of jobs with electric vehicle investment in UK - 20th Jul 21
Bitcoin Halvings Price Forecast and Stock to Flow Analysis - 18th Jul 21
Dell S3220DGF Unboxing and Stand Assembly - 32 Inch 165hz Curved Gaming Monitor Amazon Discount - 18th Jul 21
What Does The Fed Mean By “Transitory Inflation” And Why Is It Important To Understand? - 18th Jul 21
Will the US stock market’s worsening breadth matter? - 18th Jul 21
Bitcoin Halving's Price Projection Forecasts Trend Trajectory - 18th Jul 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

How to Ride the Commodities Bull Market

Commodities / Investing 2009 Nov 03, 2009 - 05:50 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: Commodity prices have faltered in the last couple of weeks, and much of the “smart money” is saying the boom is over.

Don’t believe it.


As long as the world’s central banks keep interest rates at these very low levels, the speculative interest in commodities will be strong, and so will their prices. Since only minor central banks yet show signs of moving rates, the commodities bull market has further to run.

The commodities bull has already run a long way. Since Jan. 1, gold is up 20%, silver is up 50%, copper is up 100%, oil is up 110%, coal is up 90% and iron ore is up 60%. In a year of deep recession – with the exception of wimpy gold (which did not decline as much in 2008, because all the monetary “stimulus” made people fear inflation) – that’s a pretty good run.

The Key Catalysts

There are three reasons why commodity prices have been rising, and they’re all still true:

  • China and India continue their torrid growth.
  • Global stimulus plans are bullish for commodity prices
  • And hedge funds and other speculative investors are big commodities players.

Let’s examine each of these in more detail.

1. The “China Syndrome:” While the rest of the world has been mired in recession, China has had a pretty good year, and so has India. China’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rose 9.5% from the same period last year, and India is expected to post an increase of at least 6%.

That has caused demand for raw materials to soar, because lifting the 2.5 billion inhabitants of those countries out of poverty generally requires lots of goods you can drop on your foot.

For instance, China leapfrogged the United States this year to become the world’s largest automobile market, with sales of 11 million cars and light trucks. China and India show no sign of dropping back into recession. If anything, demand growth in those two countries is likely to continue, which in turn will put additional pressure on global raw materials supplies.

In general, we have plenty of commodities, but opening up new production takes lots of time and money, so rapid demand growth pushes up prices.

2. Money Talks: Stimulative global monetary policies have tended to push up the prices of all assets – but most notably commodities – in the last year. Those monetary policies aren’t just a U.S. manifestation. Japan has interest rates close to zero and has engaged in lots of “quantitative easing.” Britain has had even laxer monetary policies than the United States, with the Bank of England buying more than $300 billion of British government “gilts.” And China’s M3 money supply grew 28% in the last twelve months.

Monetary policy would have to get quite a lot tighter – with interest rates higher than the inflation rate – before it started choking off commodity prices, and there’s not much evidence of that. Yes, Australia and Norway both raised their base rates by a quarter percentage point in the past two weeks, but both countries are special cases, being commodity producers themselves (Norway produces oil, while Australia produces pretty much everything).

Maybe China is beginning to tighten a little, too. However, the other big boys aren’t. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has said rate increases are a long way off. Britain’s GDP was still falling in the third quarter, so that country won’t be tightening soon. And most of the Eurozone (Spain, Ireland and Greece, in particular) is suffering from huge real estate meltdowns, while other exporting countries worry that the euro is becoming too strong against the dollar – so euro rates won’t rise fast, either.

The bottom line here: Without higher interest rates, the commodity boom will continue.

3. Investors “Get Physical:” Hedge funds and other speculative investors are piling into commodities. What’s more, as I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, they aren’t just buying commodities futures; in many cases, the hedge funds are buying the physical commodities. Since the supply of most commodities is a small fraction of the volume of hedge funds outstanding, prices could shift quite sharply as supply disruptions occur.

Until China and India stop growing or world monetary policy tightens a lot, any blips in the commodities market are just that – blips.

Ways to Play the “Bubble”

There are a number of ways to play a commodities bubble. It’s probably smart not to restrict your buying to gold and oil alone, but to spread yourself among a number of sectors. Let’s take a look at some of the better plays right now available. They include the:

  • Powershares DB Base Metals ETF (NYSE: DBB): This exchange-traded fund tracks the Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) base metals index, thereby allowing you to invest directly in the price movements of non-precious metals. With a market capitalization of $387 million, this ETF is at least reasonably liquid and money has been flowing into it recently.
  • Vale SA (NYSE ADR: VALE): Brazil’s largest iron ore producer, and a key supplier to China’s exuberant infrastructure growth, Vale is a true play on the global commodities market. With a historical Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of about 15, Vale will benefit hugely from further run-ups in the price of steel.
  • iShares Silver Trust (Amex: SLV): This fund invests directly in silver bullion, which has been left behind somewhat in its relationship to gold’s price rise – and which can be expected to move up as gold does, possibly by an even greater percentage.
  • Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX): Gold miners benefit disproportionately from a rise in the price of gold because their production costs are fixed. This means that miners are a more leveraged way to play gold than the metal itself, particularly as surging speculative demand can increase mining companies’ P/E ratios.
  • Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL): China’s power supply is still coal-fired, and demand is soaring, hence global coal prices are likely to be pulled upwards by Chinese demand alone. KOL has a market capitalization of $283 million.

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2009 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in