TESLA Earnings, Bitcoin, and Gold Analysis Market Brief
Companies / Corporate Earnings Oct 23, 2025 - 10:47 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
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TESLA Earnings, Bitcoin, and Gold Market Brief - 22nd Oct 2025
It's Tesla earnings today after the close, trading at $440, up from it's recent low of $412 so pumping into earnings. Tesla tends to move at least 10% on earnings. EGFS -12%, -4%, Dir +28%, so earnings are weak but bouncing strongly off the low. The PE ranges are horrific at 434%, 460%, and FOMO Indicator is -25% i.e there is no growth!
A beat or miss? Tesla misses about 60% of the time, vs the S&P average of 25%, so given the EGF's then TSLA will probably miss earnings and thus take a 10% dump from $440 to $400 which would be just the initial reaction ahead of a deeper decline to target $300, on break of to target sub $200. And even if it beats the PE ranges are at such extremes that TSLA will probably drop anyway. Musk will probably try to pump the stock with vaporware, probably promise to soon start delivering Optimus bot's.
IBM $282, EGF's -2%, +8%, Dir +15%, PE ranges 125%, 111%, FOMO 14%. EGF's suggest a small beat but the PE ranges are high which means IBM is once more ripe for a drop.
IBM did well to bounce back from it's $295 to $233 price crash on LAST earnings, and it looks like it's going to rinse and repeat off it's $301 a couple of weeks ago. Yes there is the chance of FOMO sending it to a new all time high on a BIG earnings beat, but the fact is that IBM is expensive and will STILL be expensive AFTER earnings, which is why it dropped last time. Looking at the chart clearly there is a lot of buying pressure in the the 230's so unless there is a big earnings miss, IBM could correct down to into the 240's as doable.
At S&P 6666 portfolio was 66.6% cash! The FOMO continues with the S&P weakly trending higher to 6735. Whilst the Inverse ETF XSPS at £4.54 is ALSO weakly trending higher. My base case is as per last article that we get a dip into the end of the month when the Fed should deliver it's next rate cut. US CPLIE data delayed to Friday because of the Government shutdown. I don't think it will matter to the rate decision as Fed priority is now jobs.
Bitcoin in an ISA! Buying the dip to very limited extent in WXBT (T212)
Before Brit's rush out and buy it the official line is that it ceases being ISA compatible April 2026 unless they change their minds! Which means forced sales, still between now and then there's a chance to generate some tax free profits, that's IF the tops not already in, I give it a 50/50 coin flip, so I'm buying the dips and then selling most of what I bought on the rally's so that the position doesn't start mushrooming in size.
Bitcoin $108k, base case remains for BTC on break below $100k to trade to below $90k, and IF the bull market IS over then it won't stop there, keep sliding all the way down to $76k before it bounces! Which would be a DEAD CAT BOUNCE. So much for Tom Lee $250k before end of 2025! So right now it's targeting a test of $100k which it needs to hold else it's not looking good for the bull market.
SOLANA $185 is looking weak it looks like it wants to go sub $150. Similar strategy to Bitcoin what I buy the dip I trim most of on the subsequent rally as I did early October on the rally from $172 to $212.
As has been the case with stocks, folk have had numerous opportunities to cash out most of their crypto's, so alls one should now hold is what one is prepared to hold for the next 4 years if the crypto party is over, it definitely looks over for many alt's.
And do remember to pop into the comments from time to time for my ongoing market views such as this from about 6 days ago -
plus a number of follow up comments.
Gold $4120, $3800 looks doable, worse case gold bugs wake up to see Gold price trading below $3400. I don't trade Gold and have been scaling out of my SSLN Silver position, now at 8% of original size so NO I won't be buying the Gold and Silver dip..
Your trimming the rips analyst to only buy the dips when CHEAP!
Nadeem Walayat
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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