Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold Final Warning: Here Are the Stunning Implications of Plunging Gold Price - P_Radomski_CFA
2.Fed Balance Sheet QE4EVER - Stock Market Trend Forecast Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3.UK House Prices, Immigration, and Population Growth Mega Trend Forecast - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri - Rambus_Chartology
5.The Exponential Stocks Bull Market - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.America's 30 Blocks of Holes - James_Quinn
8.US Presidential Cycle and Stock Market Trend 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Dear Stocks Bull Market: Happy 10 Year Anniversary! - Troy_Bombardia
10.Britain's Demographic Time Bomb Has Gone Off! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
S&P 500’s Downward Reversal or Just Profit-Taking Action? - 18th April 19
US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility - 18th April 19
Intel Corporation (INTC) Bullish Structure Favors More Upside - 18th April 19
Low New Zealand Inflation Rate Increases Chance of a Rate Cut - 18th April 19
Online Grocery Shopping Will Go Mainstream as Soon as This Year - 17th April 19
America Dancing On The Crumbling Precipice - 17th April 19
Watch The Financial Sector For The Next Stock Market Topping Pattern - 17th April 19
How Central Bank Gold Buying is Undermining the US Dollar - 17th April 19
Income-Generating Business - 17th April 19
INSOMNIA 64 Birmingham NEC Car Parking Info - 17th April 19
Trump May Regret His Fed Takeover Attempt - 16th April 19
Downside Risk in Gold & Gold Stocks - 16th April 19
Stock Market Melt-Up or Roll Over?…A Look At Two Scenarios - 16th April 19
Is the Stock Market Making a Head and Shoulders Topping Pattern? - 16th April 19
Will Powell’s Dovish Turn Support Gold? - 15th April 19
If History Is Any Indication, Stocks Should Rally Until the Fall of 2020 - 15th April 19
Stocks Get Closer to Last Year’s Record High - 15th April 19
Oil Price May Be Setup For A Move Back to $50 - 15th April 19
Stock Market Ready For A Pause! - 15th April 19
Shopping for Bargain Souvenirs in Fethiye Tuesday Market - Turkey Holidays 2019 - 15th April 19
From US-Sino Talks to New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Economic Prospects - 14th April 19
Stock Market Indexes Race For The New All-Time High - 14th April 19
Why Gold Price Will “Just Explode… in the Blink of an Eye” - 14th April 19
Palladium, Darling of the PGEs, Shifting into High Gear - 13th April 19
MMT is a spectacularly Dem idea - 13th April 19
The 'Silver Lines' of Opportunity - 13th April 19
Gold Stocks Bull Market Breakout Potential - 13th April 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top 10 AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

China Economy, The Watched Pot…

Economics / China Economy Jan 25, 2010 - 05:20 PM GMT

By: HRA_Advisory

Economics

Doubt that growth of the new creditor economies is the real driver for the metals market is waning ever more rapidly.  Not everyone will view that as a good thing, but most will now look to China for the moment and to the other big areas of expansion in due course for cues on which direction the sector will take.  That, and recognition of very real supply constraints, has been the HRA stance for most of this century.  So it’s time for us to do the worrying.


Last month we told Dispatch readers that we don’t view China’s resurgent economy as abnormal given its high savings rate, and that concern should be more focused on overheating of the economy.  China’s imports were up by 56% y/y in December, which is mirrored by a gain of almost that much for the year of iron ore import on a tonnage basis.  It’s true that China’s exports are also finally growing again with a 17% y/y gain in December, which puts China ahead of Germany as the biggest exporter on the planet.  Chinese auto sales nearly doubled last year, making them part of the biggest car market in the world, which 18 months ago wasn’t expected to happen before the middle of this decade. 

It is also true that some Chinese housing markets saw 50% price gains.  We aren’t amongst those who call this a bubble, at this point, since the supply excesses can be taken up eventually by the influx from the countryside.  Some price spurts are to be expected in a rapidly urbanizing economy.  However, spurts are the leading edge of spikes, and it’s the other edge that hurts.

China is shifting to a tightening policy, which is wise before the housing and commercial space markets get any more heated.  It is time for a check on the allocation of capital.  Like other economies, China has a large dollop of government incentive charging it.  Unlike most, it probably didn’t need as much stimulus as was supplied and, equally important, it doesn’t have a big government debt that requires things like tax holidays be rescinded or new taxes invented to cover it.  The mood shift required to push housing prices that fast is the real worry.  That could probably use some grounding, before it gets tied.    

There has also been some heat under a series of new exploration deals coming to market, particularly if they encompass the building materials copper and iron.  Some are doubling before the due diligence can be finished.  That doesn’t necessarily mean they are getting overvalued, and on the whole we like it when juniors are moving higher. It’s also true that many of last year’s big gainers have gone into neutral, so this has not been exuberance at play so much as a desire for newness.  But, see above for comments about spikes and edges. 

Over the next ten days Vancouver will host three separate conferences about resources and investment therein, and some of the early year enthusiasm relates to expectation of what may come from those gatherings.  We will be looking for new deals as well looking over ones already on the list.  Both will be part of a sorting process over the first half of this year.  We admit to a quandary about copper’s dual gains for price and warehouse stocks, but can’t see changing our stance before the red metal changes its capricious ways.  We’ve been teased before.         


LATEST HRA OFFER: To access Eric Coffin’s latest interview and to sign up for our Latest FREE REPORT, including HRA’s most recent new company extended review and subscription savings, click here: http://www.hraadvisory.com/qa01.html

Gain access to potential gains of hundreds or even thousands of percent! From March to June, HRA introduced four new gold explorers to subscribers. Those four companies have generated an average gain of +205%, to date!

By David Coffin and Eric Coffin
http://www.hraadvisory.com

    David Coffin and Eric Coffin are the editors of the HRA Journal, HRA Dispatch and HRA Special Delivery; a family of publications that are focused on metals exploration, development and production companies. Combined mining industry and market experience of over 50 years has made them among the most trusted independent analysts in the sector since they began publication of The Hard Rock Analyst in 1995. They were among the first to draw attention to the current commodities super cycle and the disastrous effects of massive forward gold hedging backed up by low grade mining in the 1990's. They have generated one of the best track records in the business thanks to decades of experience and contacts throughout the industry that help them get the story to their readers first. Please visit their website at www.hraadvisory.com for more information.

    © 2010 Copyright HRA Advisory - All Rights Reserved
    Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

    HRA Advisory Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

huargemarketing@googlemail.com
03 Feb 10, 22:12
How to import from china

Importing from China is not an easy job. It is very complicated and involves numerous, highly detailed-oriented tasks. It requires strong communication and earnest co-operation from all participating parties.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules