Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21
CISCO 2020 Dot com Bubble Stock vs 2021 Bubble Tech Stocks Warning Analysis - 6th Oct 21
Precious Metals Complex Searching for a Bottom - 6th Oct 21
FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, AAPL and FANG+ '5 Waves' Speaks Volumes - 6th Oct 21
Budgies Flying Ability 10 Weeks After wings Clipped, Flight Feathers Cut Grow Back - 6th Oct 21
Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
Will China's Crackdown Send Bitcoin's Price Tumbling? - 5th Oct 21
Natural Gas News: Europe Lacks Supply, So It Turns to Asia - 5th Oct 21
Stock Market Correction: One More Spark to Light the Fire? - 5th Oct 21
Fractal Design Meshify S2, Best PC Case Review, Build Quality, Airflow etc. - 5th Oct 21
Chasing Value with Five More Biotech Stocks for the Long-run - 4th Oct 21
Gold’s Century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 4th Oct 21
NASDAQ Stock Market Head-n-Shoulders Warns Of Market Weakness – Critical Topping Pattern - 4th Oct 21
US Dollar on plan, attended by the Gold/Silver ratio - 4th Oct 21
Aptorum Group - APM - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 3rd Oct 21
US Close to Hitting the Debt Ceiling: Gold Doesn’t Care - 3rd Oct 21
Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
Original Oculus VR HeadSet Rift Dev Kit v1 Before Facebook Bought Oculus - 3rd Oct 21
Microsoft Stock Valuation 2021 vs 2000 Bubble - Buy Sell or Hold Invest Analysis - 1st Oct 21
How to profit off the Acquisition spree in Fintech Stocks - 1st Oct 21
�� Halloween 2021 TESCO Shopping Before the Next Big Panic Buying! �� - 1st Oct 2
The Guide to Building a Design Portfolio Online - 1st Oct 21
BioDelivery Sciences International - BDSI - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 30th Sep 21
America’s Revolving-Door Politics Behind the Fall of US-Sino Ties - 30th Sep 21
Dovish to Hawkish Fed: Sounds Bearish for Gold - 30th Sep 21
Stock Market Gauntlet to the Fed - 30th Sep 21
Should you include ESG investments in your portfolio? - 30th Sep 21
Takeda - TAK - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 29th Sep 21
Stock Market Wishing Away Inflation - 29th Sep 21
Why Workers Are NOT Returning to Work as Lockdown's End - Wage Slaves Rebellion - 29th Sep 21
UK Fuel PANIC! Fighting at the Petrol Pumps! As Lemmings Create a New Crisis - 29th Sep 21
Gold Could See Tapering as Soon as November! - 29th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Strong U.S. Dollar Points to Lethargic Gold Price Trend

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Feb 23, 2010 - 02:56 AM GMT

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe calendar date is now sufficiently far enough in the future from the injection of massive amounts of liquidity by the world's central banks in 2008 that if inflation was to be a consequence of that action, it would be readily evident. However, as we look around the world, inflation exists only in isolated cases. Certainly in the U.S., inflation is non existent. At the same time, rather than collapsing into oblivion, the U.S. dollar has been in a rally.


Pockets of inflation have appeared. Argentina, India, and China are experiencing rising prices. In the first two cases that experience may be more due to production shortfalls rather than money creation. Prices in China may be rising due to excessive credit creation. However, that development may also be a means of lowering that nation's export surplus without altering the Yuan's relationship to the dollar. But, again, to date, U.S. inflation remains moderate or near nonexistent.

Our first chart this week, above, helps to explain why, one, U.S. inflation is moderate, and, two, why the U.S. dollar has not collapsed into oblivion. In that chart are plotted two measures of the growth rate for the U.S. money supply, M-2 NSA. The blue line is the two-year growth rate, annualized. It might be considered the slow-moving average. Red line is the one year rate of change, or the fast-moving average.

In the fall of 2008, the Federal Reserve, along with most of the world's central banks, began a massive injection of liquidity in response to the collapse of the mortgage bubble. As we can see in the chart, both measures of money supply growth moved upward. That experience caused widespread expectation of higher U.S. inflation. The same expectation existed in other countries where these liquidity injections occurred.

However, since then money supply growth in the U.S. has slowed dramatically. As shown in the chart, the one year rate of growth for the U.S. money supply is approaching zero. Expectations of U.S. inflation rising when the money supply is not growing are unlikely to be fulfilled. Current growth rate of U.S. money supply is non inflationary.

A further consequence of this meager growth rate for the quantity of U.S. dollars is that they are becoming relatively rarer. As the rate of dollar creation slows, the relative value of the dollar should rise. Expectations of the value of the U.S. dollar falling dramatically, ceteris paribus, are also likely to experience disappointment.

As the widely used trade-weighted index for the dollar is a meaningless measure in a world where currency values are dominated by financial transactions, the above chart of the dollar's value is more useful. As can be observed in that chart, the value of the dollar has now been rallying for a number of weeks. Each plot in that chart represents the closing value of the dollar on a weekly basis.

In a world where U.S. dollars are becoming relatively rarer, little reason exists for the value of the dollar to fall against other currencies. $Gold is simply another world money. Just as the Euro has declined against the dollar, so should have the value of $Gold. Those movements are the same phenomenon. Comments such that $Gold is down because the dollar is up, quite frankly, are gibberish.

Until such time as the quantity of dollars rises, the value of $Gold should change little. $Gold should remain lethargic in such an environment. It, however, may soon complete the A-wave in an A-B-C correction. With that view, a B-wave rally is possible in the next few weeks. From that move should develop a C-wave correction that takes $Gold to a Summer bottom. Dollar-based buyers should be aggressive in these corrections.

Investors in other currencies have now learned the wisdom of owning Gold. Too many continued to be invested in financial assets that clearly were priced at vulnerable levels. EU investors certainly did not expect Greece to spoil their asset values. Greece is insignificant in terms of its economic importance to the EU. Greek financial problems simply raised to the surface the EU's yet unfinished nature. Investors should not rely on currencies retaining value in all financial environments. Those living in Euros and British pounds should be buying Gold as a defense against the political and structural problems of the EU on any price weakness.

By Ned W Schmidt CFA, CEBS

Copyright © 2010 Ned W. Schmidt - All Rights Reserved

GOLD THOUGHTS come from Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS, publisher of The Value View Gold Report , monthly, and Trading Thoughts , weekly. To receive copies of recent reports, go to http://home.att.net/~nwschmidt/Order_Gold_GETVVGR.html

Ned W Schmidt Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in