Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Will Gold Price Get Compressed?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Mar 16, 2010 - 04:09 AM GMT

By: Bob_Clark

Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe go into a Fed week sitting right at the highs made a couple of months ago in the S&P.  It should lead to a couple of more days up.  Monday is stacked with data in the AM. Some of it should be market moving.
I looked at the long term picture on the SPY earlier in the week.  Today I will look at GLD..

 US$ chart..we sold off Friday to the bottom of the recent range.  I look for buying to come in here but keep in mind that the longer term trend is still down.  So we have to keep our eyes peeled for a top.
SPY...the data in the morning and the Fed meeting on Tuesday should keep a firm bid under the market..however, this market is way over loved right now, so there are caution flags...I am going to proceed on the bull side until wed.  I see the potential for some early selling on Monday the up later in the day or on Tuesday, after wed it gets iffy
XIU...I am going to buy xiu if we get a nice sell off into the 17.60 range.  I will  be using a .05 cent stop...this is an aggressive trade and the gap is a concern as it is a magnet. As in most markets, we have the risk of a failure at this level..
 GLD...Below is a five year chart in which I have marked the end of march time where we find ourselves now.  I believe the low we made in October of last year is an important low, where a longer term cycle bottomed.  The next thing we look for is a one year low sometime in 2009, here it gets a little fuzzy.  Was it the low we made in July or did it come in and hardly register in October?  If you look you will notice that it often makes a high in late April and the low comes in July sometimes as late as October. That is the trouble with cycles, they are not tradable as a stand alone method.  What I want to point out is that in only one year out of the five did we go much below the March low as we fished out sideways into July. 

I think we will do the same thing this year because it is an election year and sooner or later Obama will realize he is getting sandbagged by Bernanke and Co., meaning they are not getting the money into circulation.  My best guess is that we take one more run at 114 which turns back then the 102 area holds till July, then we get a nice leg up.  We are long from 107.80, I want to point out that this is not the best place to trade and is a "just in case" entry should we get a good April rally.  Our really safe trade will come in several months. For this reason I am using tight risk management.   My stop is at 107.60 on the half I still hold
SLV...For now I think slv may try and mount a rally but it is too high to add to our original buy at 14.45.  It should remain under the influence of the seasonal metals pattern as well.  The Commitment of Traders data is out and it shows the Fat Boys shorting silver here which makes sense, I will try to get the latest  COT charts on my blog in the next few days.   I have a stop at 15.90 which I am reconsidering but have no change yet.  I think the gap at 16.20 ultimately gets filled.
GDX...I have no trade for tomorrow.  All the metals should catch a bid here but it may be fleeting, as I said above I think we will get some really nice trades in the gold Juniors in the summer.  As well but there is still the possibility on the upside of something now..see closing comments...
TLT... looks ready to tackle the gap, in remains range bound between 88.50 and 92.00. Tomorrow could see some selling but it should be short lived.

I want to point out that the only market that has any direction is the stock market.  We have lost the correlation for now. I didn't post longer term daily charts tonight but if you look, you will see we are still in a down trend in the metals and their stocks.  The spike lows we made last month may indeed be "the bottom" but I have some things telling me to expect continued selling pressure as well, so it is compression time.   Picking at dips is the best strategy for now.  As I said, we should stay firm into the Fed meeting.  Email advisory for March 14th 2010. 

Bob Clark is a professional trader with over twenty years experience, he also provides real time online trading instruction, publishes a daily email trading advisory and maintains a web blog at  his email is

© 2010 Copyright Bob Clark - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in