Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Silver Price 2021 Roadmap - 22nd Jan 21
Why Biden Wants to Win the Fight for $15 Federal Minimum Wage - 22nd Jan 21
Here’s Why Gold Recently Moved Up - 22nd Jan 21
US Dollar Decline creates New Sector Opportunities to Trade - 22nd Jan 21
Sandisk Extreme Micro SDXC Memory Card Read Write Speed Test Actual vs Sales Pitch - 22nd Jan 21
NHS Recommends Oximeter Oxygen Sensor Monitors for Everyone 10 Months Late! - 22nd Jan 21
DoorDash Has All the Makings of the “Next Amazon” - 22nd Jan 21
How to Survive a Silver-Gold Sucker Punch - 22nd Jan 21
2021: The Year of the Gripping Hand - 22nd Jan 21
Technology Minerals appoints ex-BP Petrochemicals CEO as Advisor - 22nd Jan 21
Gold Price Drops Amid Stimulus and Poor Data - 21st Jan 21
Protecting the Vulnerable 2021 - 21st Jan 21
How To Play The Next Stage Of The Marijuana Boom - 21st Jan 21
UK Schools Lockdown 2021 Covid Education Crisis - Home Learning Routine - 21st Jan 21
General Artificial Intelligence Was BORN in 2020! GPT-3, Deep Mind - 20th Jan 21
Bitcoin Price Crash: FCA Warning Was a Slap in the Face. But Not the Cause - 20th Jan 21
US Coronavirus Pandemic 2021 - We’re Going to Need More Than a Vaccine - 20th Jan 21
The Biggest Biotech Story Of 2021? - 20th Jan 21
Biden Bailout, Democrat Takeover to Drive Americans into Gold - 20th Jan 21
Pandemic 2020 Is Gone! Will 2021 Be Better for Gold? - 20th Jan 21
Trump and Coronavirus Pandemic Final US Catastrophe 2021 - 19th Jan 21
How To Find Market Momentum Trades for Explosive Gains - 19th Jan 21
Cryptos: 5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity - 19th Jan 21
Who Will NEXT Be Removed from the Internet? - 19th Jan 21
This Small Company Could Revolutionize The Trillion-Dollar Drug Sector - 19th Jan 21
Gold/SPX Ratio and the Gold Stock Case - 18th Jan 21
More Stock Market Speculative Signs, Energy Rebound, Commodities Breakout - 18th Jan 21
Higher Yields Hit Gold Price, But for How Long? - 18th Jan 21
Some Basic Facts About Forex Trading - 18th Jan 21
Custom Build PC 2021 - Ryzen 5950x, RTX 3080, 64gb DDR4 Specs - Scan Computers 3SX Order Day 11 - 17th Jan 21
UK Car MOT Covid-19 Lockdown Extension 2021 - 17th Jan 21
Why Nvidia Is My “Slam Dunk” Stock Investment for the Decade - 16th Jan 21
Three Financial Markets Price Drivers in a Globalized World - 16th Jan 21
Sheffield Turns Coronavirus Tide, Covid-19 Infections Half Rest of England, implies Fast Pandemic Recovery - 16th Jan 21
Covid and Democrat Blue Wave Beats Gold - 15th Jan 21
On Regime Change, Reputations, the Markets, and Gold and Silver - 15th Jan 21
US Coronavirus Pandemic Final Catastrophe 2021 - 15th Jan 21
The World’s Next Great Onshore Oil Discovery Could Be Here - 15th Jan 21
UK Coronavirus Final Pandemic Catastrophe 2021 - 14th Jan 21
Here's Why Blind Contrarianism Investing Failed in 2020 - 14th Jan 21
US Yield Curve Relentlessly Steepens, Whilst Gold Price Builds a Handle - 14th Jan 21
NEW UK MOT Extensions or has my Car Plate Been Cloned? - 14th Jan 21
How to Save Money While Decorating Your First House - 14th Jan 21
Car Number Plate Cloned Detective Work - PY16 JXV - 14th Jan 21
Big Oil Missed This, Now It Could Be Worth Billions - 14th Jan 21
Are you a Forex trader who needs a bank account? We have the solution! - 14th Jan 21
Finetero Review – Accurate and Efficient Stock Trading Services? - 14th Jan 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Potential to Hit $2,000 to $3,000 Within 2 Years

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Apr 28, 2010 - 12:23 AM GMT

By: Aden_Forecast

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis month’s jump up in precious metals, resources and oil reinforces that the lows in February were likely the lows for the downward correction.

For now, the second quarter is off to a good start. The fact that gold’s decline was mild (down 13½%) is saying that the underlying bull market is strong and solid. You should now have your positions bought and in place, waiting for the bull market to further unfold.


Platinum and palladium have been strong, reaching new highs and they seem to be leading gold, silver and the metals shares in another leg up in the bull market. In fact, the new highs in many commodities reinforces this.

BIG PICTURE INVESTING BEST

Many of you know the importance we place on the big picture. The big picture is most important, and knowing where the mega and major trends lie is a key to good investing.

Our main goal has always been to invest in the major trends and to stay with them. We can’t stress this enough because over the years we have found that more money can be made this way, rather than trading the intermediate moves.

Sometimes trading works well and when it does, it’s great. But unless you’re prepared to devote a lot of time to trading, or follow the advice of a good, professional trader, then it’s easy to make mistakes. This usually happens when an investor becomes too emotionally involved.

Most frustrating is that a major move can be missed because you’re too busy trading a correction. And remember, the major moves are where your focus should be. They’re
the most profitable.

The latest downward correction in the gold price provides a good example of what we mean. We called this a ‘D’ decline and they tend to be steep.

Since 2001, these recurring D declines have ranged from a loss of about 7% to nearly 30%. The November to February correction lost 13½%. This was moderate compared to the last two D declines in 2006 and 2008, which were down 22.16% and 29.80%, respectively, and were the steepest so far (see Chart 1A).

We always receive many letters regarding our leading indicators and this is one of our favorites (Chart 1B). We know that gold’s major trend is up, meaning it’s headed higher. But within this uptrend there are intermediate ups and downs, and this indicator works
well in identifying these ebbs and flows within gold’s bull market.

Currently, for instance, the gold price and the leading indicators are starting to rise. This tells us that a renewed rise is beginning. But if you were waiting for further gold weakness before buying more, then the market is slipping away and you’re already missing out on part of the renewed strength.

This is why it’s best to buy during weakness when possible, but not to try and get the low. Averaging in during weakness is the ideal way to buy, and a big picture approach
makes it easier to just jump in and buy at any time.

For now, gold looks ready to spring forward. Considering that just six months ago, the $1000 level was a super break out point and today it’s a major support level illustrates how gold’s slow and steady rise has been gaining momentum.

The gold price has broken above all resistance and the last remaining one is the November closing high at $1218. Once $1218 is surpassed, gold could jump up to the $1300 level before this intermediate rise is over.

GOLD’S POTENTIAL

This means that the bull market remains very strong, even though gold’s already been rising for nine years. Chart 2 shows gold’s big picture since 1967 when it began to move in the free market.

Here you can see an interesting pattern that’s been going on since 1969. Note that each major eight year low was followed by a major peak 11 years later. The only exception
was the 1993 low, but in that case the low was mild within an essentially quiet market (see asterisk).

If this 11 year pattern continues, we could see gold shoot up to the $2000-$3000 level within the next two years. But since today’s economic situation is historically extreme, we could see much higher prices for a longer period of time… well beyond 2012, and more like 2017-2018.

This is precisely what we mean by staying with the major trend. It’s powerful right now and we’ll stay with it for as long as it lasts.

By Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

www.adenforecast.com

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to www.adenforecast.com

Aden_Forecast Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules