Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Gold Prices Investors beat Central Banks and Jewelry, as having the most Impact - 18th Jun 21
Has the Dust Settled After Fed Day? Not Just Yet - 18th Jun 21
Gold Asks: Will the Economic Boom Continue? - 18th Jun 21
STABLE COINS PONZI Crypto SCAM WARNING! Iron Titan CRASH to ZERO! Exit USDT While You Can! - 18th Jun 21
FOMC Surprise Takeaways - 18th Jun 21
Youtube Upload Stuck at 0% QUICK FIXES Solutions Tutorial - 18th Jun 21
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations Video - 18th Jun 21
AI Stock Buying Levels, Ratings, Valuations and Trend Analysis into Market Correction - 17th Jun 21
Stocks, Gold, Silver Markets Inflation Tipping Point - 17th Jun 21
Letting Yourself Relax with Activities That You Might Not Have Considered - 17th Jun 21
The Federal Reserve and Inflation - 16th Jun 21
Inflation Soars 5%! Will Gold Skyrocket? - 16th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Inflation Is For Fools - 16th Jun 21
Four News Events That Could Drive Gold Bullion Demand - 16th Jun 21
5 ways that crypto is changing the face of online casinos - 16th Jun 21
Transitory Inflation Debate - 15th Jun 21
USDX: The Cleanest Shirt Among the Dirty Laundry - 15th Jun 21
Inflation and Stock Market SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus - 15th Jun 21
Stock Market SPX 4310 Right Around the Corner! - 15th Jun 21
AI Stocks Strength vs Weakness - Why Selling Google or Facebook is a Big Mistake! - 14th Jun 21
The Bitcoin Crime Wave Hits - 14th Jun 21
Gold Time for Consolidation and Lower Volatility - 14th Jun 21
More Banks & Investors Are NOT Believing Fed Propaganda - 14th Jun 21
Market Inflation Bets – Squaring or Not - 14th Jun 21
Is Gold Really an Inflation Hedge? - 14th Jun 21
The FED Holds the Market. How Long Will It Last? - 14th Jun 21
Coinbase vs Binance for Bitcoin, Ethereum Crypto Trading & Investing During Bear Market 2021 - 11th Jun 21
Gold Price $4000 – Insurance, A Hedge, An Investment - 11th Jun 21
What Drives Gold Prices? (Don't Say "the Fed!") - 11th Jun 21
Why You Need to Buy and Hold Gold Now - 11th Jun 21
Big Pharma Is Back! Biotech Skyrockets On Biogen’s New Alzheimer Drug Approval - 11th Jun 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Trend Analysis, Buying Levels, Ratings and Valuations - 10th Jun 21
Gold’s Inflation Utility - 10th Jun 21
The Fuel Of The Future That’s 9 Times More Efficient Than Lithium - 10th Jun 21
Challenges facing the law industry in 2021 - 10th Jun 21
SELL USDT Tether Before Ponzi Scheme Implodes Triggering 90% Bitcoin CRASH in Cryptos Lehman Bros - 9th Jun 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Prepare For Volatility - 9th Jun 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Which Door Will Investors Choose? - 9th Jun 21
Fed ‘Taper’ Talk Is Back: Will a Tantrum Follow? - 9th Jun 21
Scientists Discover New Renewable Fuel 3 Times More Powerful Than Gasoline - 9th Jun 21
How do I Choose an Online Trading Broker? - 9th Jun 21
Fed’s Tools are Broken - 8th Jun 21
Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! - 8th Jun 21
Could This Household Chemical Become The Superfuel Of The Future? - 8th Jun 21
The Return of Inflation. Can Gold Withstand the Dark Side? - 7th Jun 21
Why "Trouble is Brewing" for the U.S. Housing Market - 7th Jun 21
Stock Market Volatility Crash Course (VIX vs VVIX) – Learn How to Profit From Volatility - 7th Jun 21
Computer Vision Is Like Investing in the Internet in the ‘90s - 7th Jun 21
MAPLINS - Sheffield Down Memory Lane, Before the Shop Closed its Doors for the Last Time - 7th Jun 21
Wire Brush vs Block Paving Driveway Weeds - How Much Work, Nest Way to Kill Weeds? - 7th Jun 21
When Markets Get Scared and Reverse - 7th Jun 21
Is A New Superfuel About To Take Over Energy Markets? - 7th Jun 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Rally, The Biggest Disconnect of All Time

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Oct 01, 2010 - 09:29 AM GMT

By: Mike_Larson


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI’m seeing one of the biggest disconnects of all time — between the underlying U.S. economy and the performance of the stock market. Just consider what we’ve learned about the economic fundamentals in the past several days …

• Consumer confidence plunged in September — to 48.5 from 53.2 in August. That was far below the 53 reading economists were expecting, and the worst in seven months.

• The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index plunged from 11 in August to NEGATIVE 2 in September. Economists were looking for a reading of 6. That was the worst since January. The report followed a dismal Dallas Fed reading from a day prior. That region’s index tanked to -17.7 from -13.5 in August.

• The housing market? Yeah, it still stinks. New home sales flat-lined at 288,000 in August, the second-worst month in U.S. history. Home prices fell to their lowest level since December 2003. Builder confidence held at the lowest level since early 2009. Existing home sales bounced a bit, but they recouped less than a third of their 27 percent July swan dive.

In other words, things aren’t getting better in the real world. They’re getting worse! But on Wall Street it’s party time. Investors are essentially the most bullish they’ve ever been. And it looks like September 2010 could be the best for stocks of any September in seven decades.

What’s going on?

Promise of Free Money Distorting Markets …

Once upon a time not so long ago, asset class performance closely tracked the underlying fundamentals. If oil supplies rose, oil prices fell. If income, jobs, production, and corporate profits gained, so did stocks. If the economy improved, bond prices fell and interest rates rose. You get the picture.

But these days, it’s a different story …

Stocks, bonds, commodities, and other assets are trading in virtual lock step thanks to the Fed’s most dramatic intervention and interference in the markets of all time. All it takes is a whisper of “quantitative easing” and stocks take off, bonds take off, commodities take off, and the dollar implodes.

Housing is the one sector the Fed has not been able to revive.
Housing is the one sector the Fed has not been able to revive.

About the only asset class that’s NOT responding to all this free money talk is the one asset the Fed probably wants to respond the most — housing.

The latest S&P Case-Shiller report showed that home prices resumed their deterioration in July, falling 0.1 percent. Prices are down 3.6 percent since the Fed rolled out QE1 in November 2008 and 28 percent since the peak of the market four years ago.

Stated another way, the fundamentals haven’t mattered lately. Stocks are reacting to the prospect of the Fed debasing our currency. That debasement is driving up asset values, as well as contra-dollar investments and the price of almost everything we consume.

A few examples:

  • Gold has surged almost $300 an ounce from its February low,
  • Copper has jumped 188 percent from its recent low,
  • Corn has exploded 58 percent,
  • Wheat has climbed 65 percent,
  • And sugar has risen 90 percent.

… But the Disconnect Simply Cannot Last

Stock market bulls would have you believe this will last to infinity and beyond. “Don’t fight the Fed,” they say.

I have a different take. “Fighting the Fed” may sting a bit in the SHORT TERM. But it has been an incredibly successful strategy over the LONGER TERM.

For instance …

You could’ve “fought the Fed” by shorting the heck out of housing and mortgage stocks even as Fed officials told you the problems in those sectors were “contained.” Doing so would have made you a fortune!

You could’ve “fought the Fed” by selling stocks into every single interest rate cut between 2008 and 2009. The Fed first lowered interest rates from 5.25 percent in September 2007. The Dow traded at 13,820 then. It proceeded to plunge to 6,470 over the ensuing couple of years.

I'd be a seller now, not a buyer.
I’d be a seller now, not a buyer.

And you could’ve “fought the Fed” back in 2000, when Alan Greenspan was singing the praises of the technology revolution even as the Nasdaq was about to crash.

The list of Fed policy failures and economic forecasting blunders goes on and on and on.

So to answer the question I’ve been hearing lately, no, I wouldn’t be buying stocks willy nilly because of the Fed. I’d be selling into the rally, and positioning for downside gains in vulnerable sectors using options and inverse ETFs.

And unless and until the real economy takes a turn for the better, the Fed’s QE2 program should ultimately fail to levitate stocks over the longer term.

Until next time,


This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


01 Oct 10, 12:52
I’d be a seller now, not a buyer

Mike says -

"I’d be a seller now, not a buyer"

To sell you would need to have bought in the first place, since you gave not done so for the past 18 months then what are you selling ?

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in