Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Why Nvidia Is My “Slam Dunk” Stock Investment for the Decade - 16th Jan 21
Three Financial Markets Price Drivers in a Globalized World - 16th Jan 21
Sheffield Turns Coronavirus Tide, Covid-19 Infections Half Rest of England, implies Fast Pandemic Recovery - 16th Jan 21
Covid and Democrat Blue Wave Beats Gold - 15th Jan 21
On Regime Change, Reputations, the Markets, and Gold and Silver - 15th Jan 21
US Coronavirus Pandemic Final Catastrophe 2021 - 15th Jan 21
The World’s Next Great Onshore Oil Discovery Could Be Here - 15th Jan 21
UK Coronavirus Final Pandemic Catastrophe 2021 - 14th Jan 21
Here's Why Blind Contrarianism Investing Failed in 2020 - 14th Jan 21
US Yield Curve Relentlessly Steepens, Whilst Gold Price Builds a Handle - 14th Jan 21
NEW UK MOT Extensions or has my Car Plate Been Cloned? - 14th Jan 21
How to Save Money While Decorating Your First House - 14th Jan 21
Car Number Plate Cloned Detective Work - PY16 JXV - 14th Jan 21
Big Oil Missed This, Now It Could Be Worth Billions - 14th Jan 21
Are you a Forex trader who needs a bank account? We have the solution! - 14th Jan 21
Finetero Review – Accurate and Efficient Stock Trading Services? - 14th Jan 21
Gold Price Big Picture Trend Forecast 2021 - 13th Jan 21
Are Covid Lockdowns Bullish or Bearish for Stocks? FTSE 100 in Focus - 13th Jan 21
CONgress "Insurrection" Is Just the Latest False Flag Event from the Globalists - 13th Jan 21
Reflation Trade Heating Up - 13th Jan 21
The Most Important Oil Find Of The Next Decade Could Be Here - 13th Jan 21
Work From Home £10,000 Office Tour – Workspace + Desk Setup 2021 Top Tips - 12th Jan 21
Collect a Bitcoin Dividend Without Owning the King of Cryptos - 12th Jan 21
The BAN Hotlist trade setups show incredible success at the start of 2021, learn how you can too! - 12th Jan 21
Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold – How Much Are They Worth? - 12th Jan 21
SPX Short-term Top Imminent - 12th Jan 21
Is This The Most Exciting Oil Play Of 2021? - 12th Jan 21
Why 2021 Will Be the Year Self-Driving Cars Go Mainstream - 11th Jan 21
Gold Began 2021 With a Bang, Only to Plunge - 11th Jan 21
How to Test Your GPU Temperatures - Running Too Hot - GTX 1650 - Overclockers UK - 11th Jan 21
Life Lesson - The Early Bird Catches the Worm - 11th Jan 21
Precious Metals rally early in 2021 - 11th Jan 21
The Most Exciting Oil Stock For 2021 - 11th Jan 21
Financial Market Forecasts 2021: Navigation in Uncharted Waters - 10th Jan 21
An Urgent Message to All Conservatives, Right-Wingers and Patriots - 10th Jan 21
Despite Signs to the Contrary, Gold Price at or Near Top - 10th Jan 21 -
Ultimate Guide On The 6 Basic Types Of Index Funds - 10th Jan 21
Getting Vaccinated at TESCO - Covid-19 Vaccinations at UK Supermarket Pharmacies and Chemists - 10th Jan 21
Cheers for the 2021 Stock Market and These "Great Expectations" - 9th Jan 21
How to Plan Your Child With Better Education - 9th Jan 21
How To Find The Best Casino - 9th Jan 21
Gold Is Still a Bargain Buy - 8th Jan 20
Gold Price Set to Soar as Hyperinflation Looms - 8th Jan 21
Have Big Dreams? Here's How to Pay for Them - 8th Jan 21
Will the Fed Support Gold Prices in 2021? - 8th Jan 21
Stocks trading strategies for beginners - 8th Jan 21
Who is Buying and Selling Stocks in 2021 - 8th Jan 21
Clap for NHS Heroes 2021 as Incompetent Government Loses Control of Virus Again! - 8th Jan 21
Ultimate Gaming and Home Working PC System Build 2021 - 5950X, RTX 3080, Asus MB - Scan Computers UK - 7th Jan 21
Inflation the bug-bear looking forward through 2021 - 7th Jan 21
ESG ETF Investing Flows Drive Clean Energy to Fresh Highs - 7th Jan 21
5 Financial Market Surprises in 2021 - 7th Jan 21
Time to ‘Reset’ Your Investment Portfolio in 2021? - 7th Jan 21
Bitcoin Price Collapses almost 20% at the start 2021 - 7th Jan 21
Fed Taper Nervous Breakdown - 6th Jan 21
What Will the U.S. Dollar Ring in for 2021? - 6th Jan 21
Stock market frenzy- Ride the bandwagon but be sure to take along some gold coins - 6th Jan 21
Overclockers UK Custom Build Gaming System Review Heat Test and Final Conclusion - 6th Jan 21
Precious Metals Resuming Bull Market, Gold, Silver, GDX Trend Forecasts 2021 - 5th Jan 21
Trump’s Iran-COVID-Gate Anniversary  - 5th Jan 21
2021 May Be A Good Year For The Cannabis / Marijuana Sector - 5th Jan 21
Stock Market Approaching an Important Target - 5th Jan 21
Consumer Prices Are Not Reflecting Higher Inflation; Neither Is The CRB - 5th Jan 21
NEW UK Coronavirus PANIC FULL Lockdown Imminent, All Schools to Close! GCSE Exams Cancelled! - 4th Jan 21
The Year the World Fell Down the Rabbit Hole - 4th Jan 21
A Year Like No Other for Precious Metals… and Everything Else - 4th Jan 21
The Stocks Bull Market is Only Half Completed - 4th Jan 21
An In- Depth Look At Gold Price Trend - 4th Jan 21
Building America Back After a Dark Covid Winter - 4th Jan 21
America's Dark Covid Winter Ahead - 4th Jan 21
Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? 3 Year Driving Review - 3rd Jan 21
Stock Market Major Peak in Early April 2021 - 3rd Jan 21
Travel and Holidays 2021 - Flight Knight Cabin Bag Review - 3rd Jan 21
�� Happy New Year 2021 Fireworks and Drone Light Show from London and Sheffied - BBC�� - 2nd Jan 2
The Next IMMINENT Global Catastrophe After Coronavirus - 1st Jan 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Don't Fall for the Gold Stock Death Cross

Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks Jul 13, 2011 - 12:54 AM GMT

By: Jeff_Berwick

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecent trader 'chatter', to use the US Government term, has indicated that some people have become concerned with the "death cross" appearing in major gold stock indices like the Gold Bugs Index (AMEX:HUI).  A death cross is denoted when a short term moving average (50 day) crosses over a long term moving average (200 day).


Certainly, with a name like Death Cross, it does sound scary!  But, is it really something to be concerned about.

The Dollar Vigilante's Take on Technical Analysis

First, we should outline our take on technical analysis - or, more accurately, statistical analysis.  Here, at TDV we do use charts as part of our toolkit but it is only one small part of our analysis of any investment.

It should be noted that this stance leaves us to be attacked from two groups.  The first, the academic economist, usually discounts technical analysis as 100% self-fulfilling nonsense.  The other crowd, the pure "technician," consider us heretics for not making ALL our investment decisions from the tea leaves in the charts alone.

Nonetheless, we have always felt no need to submit to the pressure of groups and follow our own instincts and analysis no matter if that leads us down a lonely path.

In response to the academic economists, we agree totally that there is no knowledge of the future in the chart but we disagree with academics about the utility of technical analysis.  

Charts have utility to the professional investor.  We use charts carefully to understand which way the wind is blowing at the moment or whether there are signs of change in the trends.

Stock price trends can usually easily be explained by economic theory.  In the big picture by monetary inflation trends (one of the most important indicators we watch but one that is almost completely ignored by mainstream investors); but also, at the individual company (or stock) level we see trends explained by improving fundamentals AND outlooks.  The improvement in earnings or sales may often in of itself portend more improvement ahead, especially if it is a growth business; but there are also fluctuations in valuation that tend to trend for periods of time in relation to those improving fundamentals. Granted, this says nothing about the future.  But it does explain why trends exist without relying on the random walk hypothesis, or other equally unlikely theory.

Of course, from the chart technicians perspective, they don’t like to hear how limited technical analysis is, and how trading off charts alone is akin to gambling.

In summary, in our opinion, technical analysis is but one tool in a speculator’s and trader’s tool kit.

Death Cross in Gold Stocks is Wrong Much More than Right

That being said, lets look at some statistical facts.

Looking at the HUI there has been 6 'death crosses' since 2000.  Only one of them turned out to be significant, in 2008.  But we were already very bearish on gold stocks at that time due to other more important indicators including money supply growth (as calculated by the Austrian School).

There were death crosses early in 2002, late in 2004, again in 2005 and late in 2006.  The only time it worked was in the 2008 crash...but it would have kept you out of the gold stock market more than in over the past ten years.  You would have been shaken out each of those times - which is what we have continually stated is the greater risk - being shaken off the bull.

Gold Stocks Can Lag and then Catch Up in Violent Rallies

What often happens is that gold stocks do nothing for extended periods of time, even while the price of gold itself is rising.  Gold share booms are relatively shorter as a result, but they are more violent in their catch up rallies than gold prices.  The only time gold shares really outperformed gold greatly was in 2001-04 (as can be seen in the chart below).  Ever since then the bears have always used the relatively lackluster performance of the gold equities (relative to gold) as a bearish indicator forecasting lower gold prices.

With gold up $35 to $1,566 today and close to all-time highs and with gold stocks at very attractive current valuations, the odds are much more in favor of a gold stock move to the upside than the downside.

And with all the politicos in Washington scurrying around trying to find a way to increase the debt ceiling by more than $2 trillion and the European union falling apart in front of our eyes, it seems to us that even if the "death cross" were a much more dependable indicator that it still would be risky to listen to it and be out of the gold market at this time.

Subscribe to TDV today (90 day moneyback guarantee) to access our Special Report on How to Own Gold as well as get complete access to our newsletter and portfolio selections.

The Dollar Vigilante is a free-market financial newsletter focused on covering all aspects of the ongoing financial collapse. The newsletter has news, information and analysis on investments for safety and for profit during the collapse including investments in gold, silver, energy and agriculture commodities and publicly traded stocks. As well, the newsletter covers other aspects including expatriation, both financially and physically and news and info on health, safety and other ways to survive the coming collapse of the US Dollar safely and comfortably. The Dollar Vigilante offers a free newsletter at DollarVigilante.com.

© 2011 Copyright Jeff Berwick - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules