Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase - 6th May 21
Vaccine Economic Boom and Bust - 6th May 21
USDX, Gold Miners: The Lion and the Jackals - 6th May 21
What If You Turn Off Your PC During Windows Update? Stuck on Automatic Repair Nightmare! - 6th May 21
4 Insurance Policies You Should Consider Buying - 6th May 21
Fed Taper Smoke and Mirrors - 5th May 21
Global Economic Recovery 2021 and the Dark Legacies of Smoot-Hawley - 5th May 21
Utility Stocks Continue To Rally – Sending A Warning Signal Yet? - 5th May 21
ROIMAX Trading Platform Review - 5th May 21
Gas and Electricity Price Trends so far in 2021 for the United Kingdom - 5th May 21
Crypto Bubble Mania Free Money GPU Mining With NiceHash Continues... - 4th May 21
Stock Market SPX Short-term Correction - 4th May 21
Gold & Silver Wait Their Turn to Ride the Inflationary Wave - 4th May 21
Gold Can’t Wait to Fall – Even Without USDX’s Help - 4th May 21
Stock Market Investor Psychology: Here are 2 Rare Traits Now on Display - 4th May 21
Sheffield Peoples Referendum May 6th Local Elections 2021 - Vote for Committee Decision's or Dictatorship - 4th May 21
AlphaLive Brings Out Latest Trading App for Android - 4th May 21
India Covid-19 Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan & Bangladesh, Covid in Italy August 2019! - 3rd May 21
Why Ryzen PBO Overclock is Better than ALL Core Under Volting - 5950x, 5900x, 5800x, 5600x Despite Benchmarks - 3rd May 21
MMT: Medieval Monetary Theory - 3rd May 21
Magical Flowering Budgies Bird of Paradise Indoor Grape Vine Flying Fun in VR 3D 180 UK - 3rd May 21
Last Chance to GET FREE Money Crypto Mining with Your Desktop PC - 2nd May 21
Will Powell Lull Gold Bulls to Sweet Sleep? - 2nd May 21
Stock Market Enough Consolidation Already! - 2nd May 21
Inflation or Deflation? (Not a silly question…) - 2nd May 21
What Are The Requirements For Applying For A Payday Loan Online? - 2nd May 21
How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part1 - 1st May 21
INDIA COVID APOCALYPSE - 1st May 21
Are Technicals Pointing to New Gold Price Rally? - 1st May 21
US Dollar Index: Subtle Changes, Remarkable Outcomes - 1st May 21
Stock Market Correction Time Window - 30th Apr 21
Stock Market "Fastest Jump Since 2007": How Leveraged Investors are Courting "Doom" - 30th Apr 21
Three Reasons Why Waiting for "Cheaper Silver" Doesn't Make Cents - 30th Apr 21
Want To Invest In US Real Estate Market But Don’t Have The Down Payment? - 30th Apr 21
King Zuckerberg Tech Companies to Set up their own Governments! - 29th Apr 21
Silver Price Enters Acceleration Phase - 29th Apr 21
Financial Stocks Sector Appears Ready To Run Higher - 29th Apr 21
Stock Market Leverage Reaches New All-Time Highs As The Excess Phase Rally Continues - 29th Apr 21
Get Ready for the Fourth U.S. Central Bank - 29th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stock: Were Upswings Just an Exhausting Sprint? - 29th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Lead the Bull Market Charge - 28th Apr 21
AMD Ryzen Overclocking Guide - 5900x, 5950x, 5600x PPT, TDC, EDC, How to Best Settings Beyond PBO - 28th Apr 21
Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator - 28th Apr 21
No Upsetting the Apple Cart in Stocks or Gold - 28th Apr 21
Is The Covaids Insanity Actually Getting Worse? - 28th Apr 21
Dogecoin to the Moon! The Signs are Everywhere, but few will Heed them - 28th Apr 21
SPX Indicators Flashing Stock Market Caution - 28th Apr 21
Gold Prices – Don’t Get Too Excited - 28th Apr 21
6 Challenges Contract Managers Face When Handling Contractual Agreements - 28th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

US Presidential Election Too Close to Call Causing Stock Market Uncertainty

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Oct 22, 2012 - 06:43 AM GMT

By: Christopher_Quigley

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe charts below clearly show that the Dow Transport and the Dow Industrial indices continue to exhibit divergent modalities. Since November 2009 the charts indicate that the Industrials have reached higher highs but the Transports have failed this test and have been range bound for nearly all of 2012. The direction and the momentum with which the Trannies break from this range will be most significant. I believe the market is awaiting with trepidation the results of the November presidential election. As we speak the polls are indicating that either candidate can win and this is bringing a fair degree of uncertainty into price action. The major concern is the position of Mr. Romney with regard to Iran given his predisposition to quickly consider war as a policy option. A new Middle Eastern conflagration is the last thing the world economy needs right now but unfortunately he has been boxed in by powerful interests. It is hard to see how he can march himself down the hill of imminent warfare, formal or covert, should the hand of destiny finally fall upon him.


The forward looking indications from Google, Microsoft, IBM, Intel, UPS and FedEx are negative. I think this is due to the contraction in world demand caused by European austerity. However the results from financials, banks, brokers and real estate are more positive. This is due to the low interest and quantitative easing policies being imposed by the FED. Short term earnings disappointments aside, should the issue of the war with Iran be taken off the table quickly and if American real estate and banks continue to gain strength then the scenario could be set for solid future American economic growth. Such a recovery would help Europe stabilise its sovereign debt problem and allow national economies to end austerity and invest again in expansion initiatives. This action would save the Euro from a catastrophic demise and allow another uncertainty to be cancelled from market calculation. Such a situation would consolidate the grounds for a sustainable US recovery over the next decade.

Thus I reckon a lot will be decided in the next few months, not least of which what type of administration will be entrusted to attempt to finally end the greatest structural recession since the great depression. The stakes could not be higher.

Dow Transport: Weekly

Dow Industrials: Weekly


European déjà vu:
Irish Times, Saturday 20th. October 2012:

"GERMAN CHANCELLOR Angela Merkel has upended a carefully crafted plan to resolve Europe’s banking crisis, delivering a sharp setback to Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Enda Kenny as he battles for a debt relief deal.

Moments after Mr. Kenny declared in Brussels that he had achieved solid progress overnight at a tense EU summit, Dr Merkel moved abruptly to curtail the scope of the effort to break the link between bank and sovereign debt.

The chancellor’s intervention, which took high-level EU figures by surprise, has cast a new cloud of uncertainty over the feasibility of Mr. Kenny’s demands.

For the first time in public, she backed her finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble in his assertion that national bodies must remain responsible for most banking debts.

This is markedly at odds with the push from Mr. Kenny and the leaders of France, Italy and Spain for the European Stability Mechanism bailout fund to pay for historic banking losses".

As the above quote clearly indicates the Euro crisis is far from over. In fact all I see is a political civil war breaking out. In addition to the problems being experienced by Mr. Kenny David Cameron, the British Prime Minister, announced at his recent party conference that he wished to totally renegotiate the terms of Britain's membership of the European Union. Should he not get want he wants he has indicated that he may consider withdrawing Britain completely from Euroland. Such an outcome would be a disaster for Europe in general and Ireland in particular. Where England goes Ireland may be forced to follow given the close relationship between the Dublin Financial Services Centre and the City of London. What is at stake here is the future of the "City" itself. Frankfurt wants to be the pre-eminent financial centre in Europe. However London refuses to give up its pole position. This is why Cameron is against the imposition of greater banking regulation based in Europe and is totally opposed to the financial transaction tax proposed by the European Commission. London quite rightly fears that if it starts applying this imposition business will flee from the "City" to more liberal destinations like New York and Hong Kong.

 "No job no money, no money no life:"

This statement made by a youth in Greece last week sums up the general frustration of young European graduates living not only in Athens but in Dublin, Madrid, Lisbon and Rome. Nearly 50% of youths under the age of 25 are unemployed in these capitals. For this abandoned generation the European Stability Mechanism offers no solution. This is because the central issue is not banking recapitalization and sovereign debt support but jobs and growth and hope. To achieve real growth Europe needs to become more competitive. It requires debt write off. It demands investment not draconian austerity. It needs real leadership.

For many observers the 500 billion Euro ESM is a diversion that is mis-guided and conceptually flawed. It will not achieve the objectives of banking recapitalization and sovereign debt stabilization for two main reasons. Firstly it is being partly funded by those countries needing funding, which is going to play havoc with its S & P ratings down the road. Secondly it is too small for the task at hand. The task will require in the region of 4-5 trillion Euro to adequately do the job, yet the federal courts in Germany have put a limit on Germany's contribution. This renders the fund's potentiality suspect from the get-go. Even though the ESM is inadequate and problematic all political energy is currently going into its gestation. There is no other political game in town even though national economies and concomitant institutions are collapsing due to rapidly falling money circulation. This situation cannot continue indefinitely without serious consequences. That which cannot continue, won't.

Currently, as we speak, the main fascist party in Greece "Golden Dawn" is growing at an alarming rate. This development is due to the fact that people are desperate for solutions to their social and economic problems. However, solutions are not forthcoming from mainstream political parties. This is worrying. Peter Drucker in his 1939 classic: "The End of Economic Man the Origins of Totalitarianism" spelt out the consequences of such failure. The end result was the horror of the Second World War. Unfortunately Angela Merkel is ignoring the lessons of history and is making the same mistakes again. I think Dr. Merkel will go down in history as the worst chancellor of Germany since you know who. To alter this perception she must strive to lead her nation in a new direction. She must help her people understand that Germany is the main beneficiary of the Euro currency in that it allows cheap German goods flood into France, Portugal Spain, Italy, England, Ireland, Poland, Russia and Turkey. Should the Euro fail, any new Deutschmark would be so over valued that German exports would quickly collapse, contracting its economy to the level of its austerity bound neighbours. Thus the type of political leadership desperately needed in Germany now is not the style that focuses on narrow national party politics but one that values a shared European vision for the future, a vision that is creative not destructive.  What is sorely needed now more than ever is statesmanship not political cunning. Let us hope that Dr. Merkel will have such an epiphany soon, very soon.

By Christopher M. Quigley

B.Sc., M.M.I.I. Grad., M.A.
http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

Mr. Quigley was born in 1958 in Dublin, Ireland. He holds a Bachelor Degree in Accounting and Management from Trinity College Dublin and is a graduate of the Marketing Institute of Ireland. He commenced investing in the stock market in 1989 in Belmont, California where he lived for 6 years. He has developed the Wealthbuilder investment and trading course over the last two decades as a result of research, study and experience. This system marries fundamental analysis with technical analysis and focuses on momentum, value and pension strategies.

Since 2007 Mr. Quigley has written over 80 articles which have been published on popular web   sites based in California, New York, London and Dublin.

Mr. Quigley is now lives in Dublin, Ireland and Tampa Bay, Florida.

© 2012 Copyright Christopher M. Quigley - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Christopher M. Quigley Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in