Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 25th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday Dell 32 Inch S3220DGF VA Curved Screen Gaming Monitor Bargain Deal! - 25th Nov 20
Biden the Silver Bull - 25th Nov 20
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For - 25th Nov 20
Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? - 25th Nov 20
Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? - 25th Nov 20
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE - 24th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday - Karcher K7 FC Pressure Washer Assembly and 1st Use - Is it Any Good? - 24th Nov 20
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks - 24th Nov 20
Small Traders vs. Large Traders vs. Commercials: Who Is Right Most Often? - 24th Nov 20
10 Reasons You Should Trade With a Regulated Broker In UK - 24th Nov 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 23rd Nov 20
Evolution of the Fed - 23rd Nov 20
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison - 23rd Nov 20
Nasdaq NQ Has Stalled Above a 1.382 Fibonacci Expansion Range Three Times - 23rd Nov 20
Learn How To Trade Forex Successfully - 23rd Nov 20
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20
THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE - Video - 19th Nov 20
Reasons why Bitcoin is Treading at it's Highest Level Since 2017 and a Warning - 19th Nov 20
Media Celebrates after Trump’s Pro-Gold Fed Nominee Gets Blocked - 19th Nov 20
DJIA Short-term Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis - 19th Nov 20
Demoncracy Ushers in the Flu World Order How to Survive and Profit From What Is Coming - 19th Nov 20
US Bond Market: "When Investors Should Worry" - 18th Nov 20
Gold Remains the Best Pandemic Insurance - 18th Nov 20
GPU Fan Not Spinning FIX - How to Easily Extend the Life of Your Gaming PC System - 18th Nov 20
Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Tag 30k Twice – Setting Up Stock Market Double Top - 18th Nov 20
Edge Computing Is Leading the Next Great Tech Revolution - 18th Nov 20
This Chart Signals When Gold Stocks Will Explode - 17th Nov 20
Gold Price Momentous ally From 2000 Compared To SPY Stock Market and Nasdaq - 17th Nov 20
Creating Marketing Campaigns Using the Freedom of Information Act - 17th Nov 20
ILLEGITIMATE PRESIDENT - 17th Nov 20
Stock Market Uptrend in Process - 17th Nov 20
How My Friend Made $128,000 Investing in Stocks Without Knowing It - 16th Nov 20
Free-spending Biden and/or continued Fed stimulus will hike Gold prices - 16th Nov 20
Top Cheap Budgie Toys - Every Budgie Owner Should Have These Safe Bird Toys! - 16th Nov 20
Line Up For Your Jab to get your Covaids Freedom Pass and a 5% Work From Home Tax - 16th Nov 20
You May Have Overlooked These “Sleeper” Precious Metals - 16th Nov 20
Demystifying interesting facts about online Casinos - 16th Nov 20
What's Ahead for the Gold Market? - 15th Nov 20
Gold’s Momentous Rally From 2000 Compared To Stock Market SPY & QQQ - 15th Nov 20
Overclockers UK Quality of Custom Gaming System Build - OEM Windows Sticker? - 15th Nov 20
UK GCSE Exams 2021 CANCELLED! Grades Based on Mock Exams and Teacher Assessments - 15th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Gold Bugs Fantasizing About Disconnect Between Paper and Physical Gold

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Apr 28, 2013 - 06:22 PM GMT

By: Clive_Maund

Commodities

Gold's post-plunge rally of the past 9 trading days has been quite impressive, given what preceded it, but it has not vitiated the implications of the support failure and plunge, and it won't until either a substantial base pattern forms, or the price breaks back above the strong support that has now become strong resistance. The chance of the latter happening over the short-term is low, and with the price now up within sniffing distance of the resistance, gold is viewed as being at a good point for traders to short it for a retreat back towards the recent lows, at the least.


We can see the latest action clearly on the 8-month chart. The price has risen an impressive $150 off the lows, but this rebound has brought it up perilously close to the wall of overhanging supply from the trapped traders above the failed support and to its 50-day moving average now falling quite steeply overhead. Thus it is interesting to observe the appearance of a bearish 'spinning top' candlestick on the chart on Friday, which is a warning that it is probably on the point of reversing to the downside. The massive record volume on the plunge remains a bearish omen as does the volume pickup on Friday's intraday reversal. The rebound has served to unwind the extremely oversold condition resulting from the plunge, and has thus restored downside potential. Gold is thus viewed as a trading short here.

Gold 8-Month Chart

The 7-year chart reminds us that gold not only broke down below key support when it plunged, but also broke down from the long-term uptrend in force from 2008, or 2006 if you use its top line, on massive record volume, and it is hard to view this as anything other than a bearish development. We can also see on this chart that the plunge halted just above gold's early 2011 low, and failure of this low can be expected to lead to a further severe decline back to strong support in the $1000 - $1050 area.

Gold 7-Year Chart

The long-term 20-year chart for gold is most interesting as reveals that the plunge halted right at an important long-term trendline. If this trendline holds it could reverse to the upside from about the current level. The problem is that the huge volume on the plunge and the preceding Big Money rundown of physical inventory suggest that this trendline will fail, and sadly if that happens then we will have no choice but to label gold as being in a bear market, although it's not sad at all of course if you are a bear. We should keep in mind however that a drop to the $1000 - $1050 area could be followed by a turnaround and a major new bullmarket phase that sees gold ascend to clear new highs and then go parabolic, which would mean that the current convulsion is similar to what happened in the mid-70's which at the time was labeled a bearmarket. This scenario is suggested as likely by the COTs.

Gold 20-Year Chart

The latest COTs do look the most bullish for a long, long time, with Commercial short and Large Spec long positions dropping to their lowest levels for ages, with another substantial drop just last week. While this in itself does preclude further price declines - the Commercials could even wind up being long - it is a sign that a bottom is not too far away.

Gold COT

Although the dollar had little to do with gold's recent plunge, it is likely to have a major role to play in gold's future course, so we should always keep it in our sights. On the 6-month chart for the dollar index we can see how it rallied up to the boundary of a Distribution Dome and then backed off last week, which is normal action. Despite the name, Domes do not always result in reversal and a drop. While they are named appropriately as they are an indication of distribution, quite often a second upwave develops that breaks the price out of the top of the Dome to commence another upleg. This could happen here with the dollar, especially as a big bullish engulfing pattern occurred when the index reversed to the upside in mid-April. We need to be on the lookout for this, as such a breakout from this Dome would be bad news for commodities and stocks generally and for gold and silver in particular.

US Dollar Index 6-Month Chart

Two storylines have been doing the rounds since gold plunged, designed to keep bullish hopes alive. One is that the supposedly huge disconnect that exists between the paper and physical gold price is going to lead to a massive ramp in the price. If such a price differential did exist, then Big Money would arbitrage it away. The other is that as gold is going to $10,000 or $50,000 eventually, you should not therefore be upset if the price drops a mere 30% over the short to medium-term, as you are 'in it for the long haul' or 'in it to win it' etc. We try to keep 'one foot on the ground' and avoid Alice in Wonderland type fantasizing - sure gold could go to $50,000 if there is hyperinflation, but this is still some way off even if it's brewing and there is not a deflationary implosion first, and anyway it not such a big deal when it takes a wheelbarrow full of banknotes to buy a loaf of bread. If it's hope you want, nip down to the local store and buy yourself a lottery ticket, it's a lot cheaper.

By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com

For billing & subscription questions: subscriptions@clivemaund.com

© 2013 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Clive Maund Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules