Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Silver More Weakness Before Price Takes off Higher Again

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 May 20, 2013 - 12:29 PM GMT

By: Clive_Maund

Commodities

Much of what is written about the macro factors affecting gold applies equally to silver, and will not be repeated here.

Silver's post plunge relief rally was considerably weaker and more stunted than gold's, and with it now back near to its April plunge lows after the drop last week, the chances are considered high that it will break to new lows soon. That said, its latest COTs and sentiment indicators are now strongly bullish, so that although it may well break to lower lows soon, it is thought unlikely that there will be much downside follow through before it hits bottom. We can see all this on its 9-month chart below, and how it is clinging on by its fingernails to the support at the April lows. Before leaving this chart, notice the large gap between the price and the 200-day moving average, which just by itself is a positive factor.


Silver 9-Month Chart

On its 8-year chart silver looks to have broken down on high volume from the long-term uptrend shown, although this uptrend is rather loose and undefined. By itself this is clearly not a favorable development, but it is countered by the now strongly bullish COTs and sentiment indicators which suggest that an important bottom is close at hand. This is why it is considered probable that, although some further short-term weakness is likely, the price will bottom near the strong support shown in the $19 - $20 area (this strong support continues down to about $17) in coming weeks.

Silver 8-Year Chart

The long-term 20-year chart shows that the important and strong support in the $17 - $20 area is underpinned by a long-term uptrend line.

Silver 20-Year Chart

The latest silver COT chart is at its most bullish for a very long time, with Commercial short and Large Spec long positions at a very low level.

Silver COT Chart

The longer-term COT chart shown below gives added perspective and suggests that silver is close to bottoming here.

Silver COT Chart 2

The Public Opinion chart for silver below shows that bullishness towards silver is close to its lowest levels in recent years, which is another contrarian bullish indication.

Silver Public Opinion Chart

Finally, seasonals for silver are negative in June, but swing back to positive in July. By itself the seasonal chart below points to short-term weakness followed by a low and basing action before the price takes off higher again.

Silver Seasonality Chart

By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com

For billing & subscription questions: subscriptions@clivemaund.com

© 2013 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

Clive Maund Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in