Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
U-Turn or Perfect Storm? Globalization at Crossroads - 22nd Oct 19
Stock Market Indexes Struggle and TRAN suggests a possible top - 22nd Oct 19
Fake Numbers Fueling the Wage War on Wealth - 22nd Oct 19
A Look at Peak Debt - 22nd Oct 19
The Coming Great Global Debt Reset - 22nd Oct 19
GamStop Became Mandatory - 22nd Oct 19
Learn to Spot Reliable Trading Setups: ANY Market, Any Market Time Frame - 21st Oct 19
How To Secure A Debt Consolidation Loan Even If You Have A Bad Credit Rating - 21st Oct 19
Kids Teepee Tent Fun from Amazon by Lavievert Review - 15% Discount! - 21st Oct 19
Stock Market Stalls: Caution Ahead - 21st Oct 19
Stock Market Crash Setup? - 21st Oct 19
More Stock Market Congestion (Distribution) - 21st Oct 19
Revisiting “Black Monday Stock Market Crash October 19 1987 - 21st Oct 19
Land Rover Discovery Sports Out of Warranty Top Money Saving Tips - 21st Oct 19
Investing lessons from the 1987 Stock Market Crash From Who Beat it - 20th Oct 19
Trade Wars: Facts And Fallacies - 20th Oct 19
The Gold Stocks Correction and What Lays Ahead - 19th Oct 19
Gold during Global Monetary Ease - 19th Oct 19
US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally - 18th Oct 19
The Biggest Housing Boom in US History Has Just Begun - 18th Oct 19
British Pound Brexit Chaos GBP Trend Forecast - 18th Oct 19
Stocks Don’t Care About Trump Impeachment - 17th Oct 19
Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Future Projected Cycles - 17th Oct 19
Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report - 17th Oct 19
What Makes United Markets Capital Different From Other Online Brokers? - 17th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 16th Oct 19
This Is Not a Money Printing Press - 16th Oct 19
Online Casino Operator LeoVegas is Optimistic about the Future - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Dow Elliott Wave Analysis Forecast - Video - 16th Oct 19
$100 Silver Has Come And Gone - 16th Oct 19
Stock Market Roll Over Risk to New highs in S&P 500 - 16th Oct 19
10 Best Trading Schools and Courses for Students - 16th Oct 19
Dow Stock Market Short-term Trend Analysis - 15th Oct 19
The Many Aligning Signals in Gold - 15th Oct 19
Market Action Suggests Downside in Precious Metals - 15th Oct 19
US Major Stock Market Indexes Retest Critical Price Channel Resistance - 15th Oct 19
“Baghad Jerome” Powell Denies the Fed Is Using Financial Crisis Tools - 15th Oct 19
British Pound GBP Trend Analysis - 14th Oct 19
A Guide to Financing Your Next Car - 14th Oct 19
America's Ruling Class - Underestimating Them & Overestimating Us - 14th Oct 19
Stock Market Range Bound - 14th Oct 19
Gold, Silver Bonds - Inflation in the Offing? - 14th Oct 19
East-West Trade War: Never Take a Knife to a Gunfight - 14th Oct 19
Consider Precious Metals for Insurance First, Profit Second... - 14th Oct 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stock Markets Say Tapering Is Tightening

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Feb 04, 2014 - 10:03 AM GMT

By: Michael_Pento

Stock-Markets

Wall Street Cheerleaders like to claim that the tapering of Fed asset purchases is not equivalent to the tightening of monetary policy. But the markets are clearly telling investors something different. Year to date the S&P 500 is down about 5%--not horrific for one month but certainly not following last year's performance. But the economic data such as; durable goods, initial jobless claims, personal income, and housing sales have all shown a distinctive weakening trend.


The reason why tapering is tightening is because the Fed had been in the habit of taking away $1T worth of higher-yielding bank assets per year and offering them just .25% in return. Banks then needed to purchase a new asset such as; bonds, stocks or by creating a loan, which served to expand the money supply. However, going from $1T worth of asset purchases to $0 of QE, can hardly be offset by the amount of excess reserves held in the banking system. In other words, the banking system isn't any more compelled to increase its asset holdings if the Fed's balance sheet is $5 trillion than when it is $4 trillion. Believing otherwise represents a critical misunderstanding of the QE process and how the level of excess reserves influences the banking sector.

Nevertheless, the Fed continues to promulgate the fallacy that ending QE will not have an adverse effect on asset prices, money supply and the economy. And the majority of the investment public has accepted that nonsense as gospel truth. However, the global turmoil in equities and currency markets are great evidence that the reflation game has changed. Further proof of this is the fact that Treasury yields are falling into the teeth of the Fed's taper of asset purchases. The only reason this counterintuitive trade would occur is if the market was convinced the overwhelming forces of deflation and recession are going to supersede the falling demand for bonds from the Fed.

The chaos in emerging markets is just one of the destructive ramifications resulting from subjecting the world's reserve currency to 5 years of ZIRP and $3.3 trillion worth of money printing. Because of the Fed's massive manipulation of interest rates and money supply, investors piled into emerging market countries searching for higher-yielding investments denominated in rising currencies. Those foreign central banks had to print local currency to keep it from appreciating too rapidly. That created inflation, which further exacerbated the move higher in asset prices.

Then, at the beginning of this year the Fed started to reduce the monthly amount of QE, forcing investors to panic out of E.M. currencies and equity markets and back into their domestic currencies. The currency market turmoil also forced those E.M. central bankers to raise interest rates to quell inflation and support their currencies.

For example, Turkey hiked its overnight borrowing rate to 8%, from 3.5%. Just imagine what would occur in the U.S. markets and economy if the Fed Funds rate was raised from 0%, to 4.5% in one day!

This is just one example of the unintended consequences resulting from governments' efforts to bring the global economy out of the Great Recession by massively increasing debt levels and having that debt purchased by central banks.

To be clear, I turned bearish on the markets in 2014, precisely because of the implementation of the deficit-busting Affordable Care Act and the soaring interest rates and crumbling currencies in emerging market economies. Also, the Fed's taper of QE (which will cause asset prices to tumble) and yet another debate and debacle regarding the debt ceiling. Expect global chaos this year to rival that of 2008, at least until the new Fed-head, Janet Yellen, re-institutes a protracted and substantial QE program.

Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies and Author of the book “The Coming Bond Market Collapse.”

Respectfully,

Michael Pento
President
Pento Portfolio Strategies
www.pentoport.com
mpento@pentoport.com

Twitter@ michaelpento1
(O) 732-203-1333
(M) 732- 213-1295

Michael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS). PPS is a Registered Investment Advisory Firm that provides money management services and research for individual and institutional clients.

Michael is a well-established specialist in markets and economics and a regular guest on CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, FOX Business News and other international media outlets. His market analysis can also be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. He also acts as a Financial Columnist for Forbes, Contributor to thestreet.com and is a blogger at the Huffington Post.
               
Prior to starting PPS, Michael served as a senior economist and vice president of the managed products division of Euro Pacific Capital. There, he also led an external sales division that marketed their managed products to outside broker-dealers and registered investment advisors. 
       
Additionally, Michael has worked at an investment advisory firm where he helped create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street.  Earlier in his career he spent two years on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  He has carried series 7, 63, 65, 55 and Life and Health Insurance Licenses. Michael Pento graduated from Rowan University in 1991.
       

© 2014 Copyright Michael Pento - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Michael Pento Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules