Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Amazon Black Friday vs Prime Day vs Cyber Monday, Which are Real or Fake Sales - 1st Dec 20
The No.1 Biotech Stock for 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Stocks Bears Last Chance Before Market Rally To SPX 4200 In 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Globalists Poised for a “Great Reset” – Any Role for Gold? - 1st Dec 20
How to Get FREE REAL Christmas Tree 2020! Easy DIY Money Saving - 1st Dec 20
The Truth About “6G” - 30th Nov 20
Ancient Aztec Secret Could Lead To A $6.9 Billion Biotech Breakthrough - 30th Nov 20
AMD Ryzen Zen 3 NO UK MSRP Stock - 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x Selling at DOUBLE FAKE MSRP Prices - 29th Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Decision Time - 29th Nov 20
Look at These 2 Big Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy - 29th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase – Part II - 28th Nov 20
The Gold Stocks Correction is Maturing - 28th Nov 20
Biden and Yellen Pushed Gold Price Down to $1,800 - 28th Nov 20
Sheffield Christmas Lights 2020 - Peace Gardens vs 2019 and 2018 - 28th Nov 20
MUST WATCH Before You Waste Money on Buying A New PC Computer System - 27th Nov 20
Gold: Insurance for Prudent Investors, Precious Metals Reduce Risk & Preserve Wealth - 27th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase - 27th Nov 20
Snow Falling Effect Christmas Lights Outdoor Projector Amazon Review - 27th Nov 20
4 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Put off Your Roof Repairs - 27th Nov 20
Further Clues Reveal Gold’s Weakness - 26th Nov 20
Fun Things to Do this Christmas - 26th Nov 20
Industries that Require Secure Messaging Apps - 26th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 25th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday Dell 32 Inch S3220DGF VA Curved Screen Gaming Monitor Bargain Deal! - 25th Nov 20
Biden the Silver Bull - 25th Nov 20
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For - 25th Nov 20
Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? - 25th Nov 20
Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? - 25th Nov 20
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE - 24th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday - Karcher K7 FC Pressure Washer Assembly and 1st Use - Is it Any Good? - 24th Nov 20
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks - 24th Nov 20
Small Traders vs. Large Traders vs. Commercials: Who Is Right Most Often? - 24th Nov 20
10 Reasons You Should Trade With a Regulated Broker In UK - 24th Nov 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 23rd Nov 20
Evolution of the Fed - 23rd Nov 20
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison - 23rd Nov 20
Nasdaq NQ Has Stalled Above a 1.382 Fibonacci Expansion Range Three Times - 23rd Nov 20
Learn How To Trade Forex Successfully - 23rd Nov 20
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Stock Market Primary IV Continues

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Oct 26, 2014 - 12:05 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro


One impressive rally this week! The week started off at SPX 1887. After a notable pullback to SPX 1882 the market rallied straight up to 1949 by Wednesday. Then after a pullback to SPX 1927 on Wednesday, the market rallied to 1965 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 3.35%, the NDX/NAZ gained 5.60%, and the DJ World index gained 3.10%. On the economic front things were not as rosy, as positive reports nudged out negative ones. On the uptick: existing home sales, the CPI, the FHFA index and leading indicators. On the downtick: new home sales, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims rose. Next week is FOMC week! Plus we get reports on Q3 GDP, the PCE and the Chicago PMI.

LONG TERM: bull market

The five Primary wave Cycle wave [1] bull market continues to unfold. We continue to count: Primary waves I and II ending in 2011, Primary III ending in September with Primary IV underway since then. After the SPX 2019 high five weeks ago Friday, the market started to work its way lower for about one week and a half. After that, and since then, it has become quite volatile. With the DOW moving triple digits nearly every day. This type of volatility usually occurs only in corrections.

When reviewing the Primary II correction in 2011 one should notice that it unfolded in a five wave elongated flat: abA-B-C. Using alternation as a guide we have been expecting a simple zigzag for Primary IV. Basically, the first three waves of Primary II should suffice for a Primary IV correction. After this weeks strong rally we took a closer look at those three waves back in 2011.

The first wave down, labeled Int. a, took several weeks as the market lost 8.2%. The RSI got quite oversold, and then the market started to rally in Int. b. During the rally, which took a few weeks, the market had one week in which it surged +5.2%. The market then went sideways before dropping in Int. wave c. The total decline for Primary II was 22%. During Primary IV were are observing similar activity. The first decline took several weeks as the market lost 9.8%. After getting quite oversold, the market started to rally in a b wave. This week the market surged 4.1% during this rally. They certainly look quite similar.

MEDIUM TERM: Major B uptrend awaiting confirmation

After Primary wave III topped at SPX 2019 we observed an Int. wave a down to SPX 1926. Then we had an Int. wave b rally to SPX 1978. After that the market got quite volatile. After a drop to SPX 1925, the market rallied in one day to SPX 1970. The next day it totally reversed, giving back nearly all of that gain. After that the market went down, in a series of corrective waves, until it reached SPX 1821. At that point Int. c was a near perfect 1.618 relationship to Int. a.

With the market then quite oversold it started to rally. After the first day we noted the characteristics of the market had changed, and suggested Major wave B was underway. We also suggested the OEW 1973 pivot range would probably be the upside target. However, we expected the advance to be quite choppy. The rally started off choppy, SPX 1821-1898, but then took off to the upside after a pullback to SPX 1878. At first we thought the uptrend would be three Int. waves subdividing into three Minor waves. When the market cleared the 1956 pivot on Friday we updated the charts to display Int. A at SPX 1898, Int. B at 1878, and Int. C underway. When this last rally concludes, Major wave B should conclude, and a potentially nasty Major wave C downtrend should follow. Medium term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance a the 1973 and 2019 pivots.


During the Major wave A downtrend we noted the decline was occurring in a series of seven waves sets. The market was quite volatile and making notable waves several times a day. The last decline was also seven waves into the SPX 1821 low. And then suddenly the market changed its characteristics. As the rally progressed from the low it was quite volatile, but after several days it started to settle down. At the peak of the volatility, into the low and coming out of it, we counted ten waves on each of those two days.

We noted during the week that we have been observing seven wave patterns again on the way up during this uptrend. These patterns have been much larger than during the decline. The first rally, Int. A, unfolded: 1869-1835-1868-1852-1876-1857-1898. Then after an Int. wave B pullback to 1878, Int. C has unfolded as follows: 1892-1882-1949-1927-1962-1946-1965+. Two sets of seven wave patterns, with the second set yet to complete. Our upside target has been the OEW 1973 pivot range, so we expect this last rally to top within the 1966-1980 range. Of note, Int. wave B of Major wave A ended at SPX 1978. Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum continues to form a negative divergence as the market has worked its way higher. The first 10 point reversal off of any high could suggest the top has been achieved. Best to your trading!


The Asian markets were nearly all higher and gained a net 1.8% on the week.

The European markets were all higher gaining 3.2% on the week.

The Commodity equity group were mixed and lost 2.7% on the week.

The DJ World index gained 3.1% on the week.


Bonds continue to uptrend but lost 0.5% on the week.

Crude remains in a downtrend and lost 2.0% on the week.

Gold is trying to uptrend, but lost 0.6% on the week.

The USD looks like it is heading into a downtrend, but gained 0.6% on the week.


Monday: Pending home sales at 10am. Tuesday: Durable goods orders, Case-Shiller and Consumer confidence. Wednesday: FOMC statement at 2pm. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Q3 GDP (est. +2.65). Friday: Personal income/spending, the PCE, the Chicago PMI, and Consumer sentiment. This certainly looks like it could be quite a wild week. Best to your weekend and week!


After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2014 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules