Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0 - 21st Sep 21
The Fed Is Playing The Biggest Game Of Chicken In History - 21st Sep 21
Focus on Stock Market Short-term Cycle - 21st Sep 21
Lands End Cornwall In VR360 - UK Holidays, Staycations - 21st Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September CRASH Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 20th Sep 21
Two Huge, Overlooked Drains on Global Silver Supplies - 20th Sep 21
Gold gets hammered but Copper fails to seize the moment - 20th Sep 21
New arms race and nuclear risks could spell End to the Asian Century - 20th Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 19th Sep 21
Dow Forecasting Neural Nets, Crossing the Rubicon With Three High Risk Chinese Tech Stocks - 18th Sep 21
If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher? - 18th Sep 21
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues - 18th Sep 21
So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks - 18th Sep 21
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner - 18th Sep 21
An Update on the End of College… and a New Way to Profit - 16th Sep 21
What Kind of Support and Services Can Your Accountant Provide? Your Main Questions Answered - 16th Sep 21
Consistent performance makes waste a good place to buy stocks - 16th Sep 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition - 15th Sep 21
Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper - 15th Sep 21
Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy - 15th Sep 21
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine - 15th Sep 21
How does product development affect a company’s market value? - 15th Sep 21
Types of Investment Property to Become Familiar with - 15th Sep 21
Is This the "Kiss of Death" for the Stocks Bull Market? - 14th Sep 21
Where Are the Stock Market Fireworks? - 14th Sep 21
Play-To-Earn Cryptocurrency Games Gain More and Is Set to Expand - 14th Sep 21
The CashFX TAP Platform - Catering to Bull Investors and Bear Investors Alike - 14th Sep 21
Why every serious investor should be focused on blockchain technology - 13th Sep 21
SPX Base Projection Reached – End of the Line? - 13th Sep 21
There are diverse ways to finance the purchase of a car - 13th Sep 21
6 Tips For Wise Investment - 13th Sep 21 - Mark_Adan
Gold Price Back Below $1,800! - 10th Sep 21
The Inflation/Deflation debate wears on… - 10th Sep 21
Silver Price seen tracking Copper prices higher - 10th Sep 21
The Pitfalls of Not Using a Solicitor for Your Divorce - 10th Sep 21
Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
This Boom-Bust Cycle in US Home Ownership Should Give Home Shoppers Pause - 9th Sep 21
Stock Market September Smackdown Coming Next? - 9th Sep 21 - Monica_Kingsley
Crazy Crypto Markets How to Buy Bitcoin, Litecoin for Half Market Price and Sell for TRIPLE! - 8th Sep 21
Sun Sea and Sand UK Holidays 2021, Scarborough in VR 180 3D! - 8th Sep 21
Bitcoin BTC Price Detailed Trend Forecast Into End 2021 - 8th Sep 21
Hyper Growth Stocks - This billionaire is now using one of our top strategies - 8th Sep 21
6 common trading mistakes to avoid at all costs - 8th Sep 21
US Dollar Upswing, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook - 7th Sep 21
Dovish Assassins of the USD Index - 7th Sep 21
Weak August Payrolls: Why We Should Care - 7th Sep 21
A Mixed Stock Market - Still - 6th Sep 21
Energy Metals Build Momentum; Silver & Platinum May Follow - 6th Sep 21
What‘s Not to Love About Crypto Market Fireworks - 6th Sep 21
Surging US Home Prices and Gold – What’s the Link? - 6th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Strong US Dollar Sets Gold and Sliver Markets Tone

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Feb 16, 2015 - 03:25 PM GMT

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Commodities

This week the US dollar moved strongly upwards against the other major currencies, at the same time weakening gold and silver along with most industrial commodities, before some profit-taking set in yesterday. The effect on precious metals is a change from previous weeks when a flight into dollars also supported gold and silver prices. Instead, gold and silver were noticeably weak until this morning, when prices recovered $8 and $0.13c respectively in early London trading. So what’s changed?


On examination very little has, other than a determination by liquidity providers in the futures markets to contain their short positions. In a market where speculators have little or no ability to judge value, emotion sets prices. This makes it easy for bullion banks with deep pockets to move the market and change sentiment. On Comex[i] this has led to a sharp reduction in outstanding gold open interest over the last fortnight as shown in the chart below.

The chart clearly shows the tight relationship between open interest and the gold price since late-December and suggests that on purely technical grounds there is still some limited scope for lower prices. Interestingly attempts to shake out bulls in silver have been less successful, as illustrated in the next chart.


Moment to moment silver trading imparts the impression that the market is systemically short, and there have been many occasions when gold has drifted lower that the silver price has gained on balance.

Meanwhile Greece continues to dominate financial headlines, with deposits being withdrawn from the banks, so much so that the ECB[ii] has had to extend its Emergency Liquidity Assistance by an extra €5bn to €64.5bn. The European Financial Stability Facility for Greece expires at the end of this month, and in March a series of IMF[iii] loans and T-bills mature. The pressure for Greece to compromise is building rapidly.

At the same time banks in central Europe have been adversely affected by potential losses on Swiss franc mortgage exposure and sanctions against Russia. The combination of these troubles plus Greece has not so far supported the gold price, though there are reports that Greek citizens are buying British sovereigns. There are also reports from Switzerland that negative interest rates are similarly creating demand for physical bullion.

For the moment gold traders are ignoring the potential demand for precious metals from negative interest rates. Sweden’s Riksbank has cut its repo rate to -0.1%, and the Bank of England warned that prices might actually fall, signalling the possibility that it might have to take more easing action to prevent deflation. The trend towards negative interest rates continues which should underwrite precious metals.

Next week

Monday. Japan: Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production (final). UK: Rightmove House Price Index.

Tuesday. UK: CPI, Input Prices, ONS House Prices, Output Prices. Eurozone: ZEW economic Sentiment. US: Empire State Survey, NAHB Builders Survey, Net Long-Term TICS Flows.

Wednesday. UK: Average Earnings, BoE MPC Minutes, Claimant Count Change, ILO Unemployment Rate. US: Building Permits, Housing Starts, PPI, Capacity Utilisation, Industrial production. Japan: Customs Cleared Trade, BoJ MPC overnight Rate.

Thursday. Japan: All Industry Activity Index, Leading Indicator. Eurozone: Current Account. UK: CBI Industrial Trends. US: Initial Claims, Leading Indicator, Philadelphia Fed Survey.

Friday. Eurozone: Flash Composite PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI. UK: Public Borrowing, Retail Sales. US: Flash Manufacturing PMI.

Alasdair Macleod

Head of research, GoldMoney

Alasdair.Macleod@GoldMoney.com

Alasdair Macleod runs FinanceAndEconomics.org, a website dedicated to sound money and demystifying finance and economics. Alasdair has a background as a stockbroker, banker and economist. He is also a contributor to GoldMoney - The best way to buy gold online.

© 2015 Copyright Alasdair Macleod - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Alasdair Macleod Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in