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UK Economy GDP Growth Forecasts Continue to be Revised Lower for 2008

Economics / UK Economy Jun 04, 2008 - 12:33 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

The OECD, Inline with many economic forecasting organisations have in recent months revised UK growth forecasts lower, today the OECD announced that UK growth for 2008 is expected to be 1.8% against 2% in Dec 07, and growth for 2009 to fall to 1.4%.

The organisation cited the weakening housing market and the tight credit conditions for the the lower growth forecast and urged the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold to help curb rising inflation.


The Market Oracle forecast for UK growth as of December 07 is for GDP growth for 2008 of between 1% and 1.3%, therefore expect the government and mainstream organisations to continue to keep revising growth forecasts lower by year end to merge with the Market Oracle forecast. The 2009 forecasts at between 1.4% and 2.5% seem overly optimistic as the UK will flirt and possibly enter into recession during 2009, therefore any recovery into 2009 year end may not be able to lift overall growth to much above 0.5% for the year as a whole.

Summary of UK GDP Growth Forecasts for 2008

  • Market Oracle 1% to 1.3% (Dec 07)
  • CBI 2% (Dec 07)
  • UK Treasury 2.15%, 2.5% for 2009 (Dec 07)
  • European Commission 2.2% for 2008 and 2.5% for 2009 (Dec 07)
  • Oxford Economics 2.3% (Dec 07)
  • OECD 2% (Dec 07)
  • International Monetary Fund 2.3% (Oct 07)
  • Capital Economics 2% (Dec 07)

By Nadeem Walayat

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Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 150 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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