Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

More Evidence Gold Stocks Have Bottomed Relative to Gold Price

Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015 May 02, 2015 - 12:39 PM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

As we penn this article Gold is trading below $1180/oz and set to close at its lowest level in six weeks. Gold is less than 2% from its weekly low of $1158. It is fairly close to another technical breakdown. However, the gold mining stocks appear to be bucking the trend and showing increasing relative strength. It appears likely that the stocks have bottomed relative to the metal and maybe so in nominal terms.


Below we plot various gold miner indices against Gold. We essentially plot the juniors and large caps from both the US and Canada against GLD. Not only have these ratios increased in recent months but they have increased in the past few weeks as Gold has declined from $1220 down below $1180. That is a very important signal of relative strength.

The price action in nominal terms would have been far more encouraging if the miners had closed near their weekly highs. The weekly candle charts for GDX and GDXJ are below. The miners are up for the week but failed to hold the majority of the gains. GDX touched $20.90, which is 7% from its 80-week moving average. If it could reach that resistance it would mark the third test in the past ten months (after previously no tests in two years). That would be a strong signal of a transition from a bear market to a bull market.

The reasons for the gold miners' relative strength are unlikely to be temporary. Sure Oil has rebounded but its price remains well below the $100/barrel it averaged throughout 2011 to 2014. That is helping miners. In addition, local currency weakness has been a boon. Even though the US$ index has stalled out, the Gold price against foreign currencies is 20% above its December 2013 low. That helps miners operating outside of the US with some costs denominated in local currencies. Other factors to consider include the strength in the two largest gold miners Newmont and Barrick and the fact that gold stocks recently were potentially the cheapest in history.

The gold miners can continue to show relative strength but they may not rip to the upside until Gold cooperates. A weekly close below $1150/oz could accelerate Gold's final breakdown. On the other hand, a weekly close above $1220 would be bullish. I would actually prefer the former as it would give us real clarity to the end of the bear market and it would give us a final chance to buy miners before they explode to the upside.

Consider learning more about our premium service including our current favorite junior miners which we expect to outperform in the second half of 2015.

Good Luck!

Email: Jordan@TheDailyGold.com
Service Link: http://thedailygold.com/premium

Bio: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT  is a Chartered Market Technician, a member of the Market Technicians Association and from 2010-2014 an official contributor to the CME Group, the largest futures exchange in the world. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphaszies market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor.  Jordan's work has been featured in CNBC, Barrons, Financial Times Alphaville, and his editorials are regularly published in 321gold, Gold-Eagle, FinancialSense, GoldSeek, Kitco and Yahoo Finance. He is quoted regularly in Barrons. Jordan was a speaker at PDAC 2012, the largest mining conference in the world.

Jordan Roy-Byrne Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in