Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stocks Bull Market Continues With 9% Risk

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jan 01, 2016 - 01:00 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

A choppy week to end the year. The market started Monday at SPX 2061. After a gap down opening on Monday, and drop to SPX 2044, the market rallied to 2082 with a gap up opening on Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday were all downhill, aided by a gap down opening Thursday, and the market ended the week at SPX 2044. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.75%, the NDX/NAZ lost 0.70%, and the DJ World lost 0.60%. Economic reports for the week were light and negative. On the downtick: the WLEI, Chicago PMI, pending homes sales and the weekly jobless claims were higher. On the uptick: consumer confidence. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, monthly Payrolls, and the ISMs. Happy New Year!


LONG TERM: bull market

It is interesting to note, since 1982 equities have been in a bull market 85% of the time. Yet, many are all too eager to claim a bear market when the market struggles to make new highs, or enters a downtrend. It is also interesting to note the following yearly results, year over year, since the bull market began: 2009 (+23.4%), 2010 (+12.8%), 2011 (0%), 2012 (+13.4%), 2013 (+29.6%), 2014 (+11.5%), and 2015 (-0.6%). Yes, 2015 is the first year over year loss. But the market would have been unchanged, like 2011, if not for the last two hours of trading on Thursday 12/31/2015.

If one reviews the chart above they will notice that during 2011 (0%) and 2015 (-0.6%) the market experienced its Primary waves II and IV respectively. So the yearend results are quite close to what has normally occurred during this bull market. Should the market continue to perform in 2016 as it has done during this bull market, we should expect a rise of 12.8% (mean), or 13.0% (average), to SPX 2306-2310 by yearend. While we continue to see the bull market extending into year seven, its price action has provided an excellent long term stop less than 9% below the yearend SPX 2044 close. Simply put, if the SPX drops 9% from the yearend close, at any time during 2016, it has probably entered a bear market.

MEDIUM TERM: up/down trend remains at inflection point

The year 2015 was quite a choppy year, and similar to the year 2011. In both years the market rallied to bull market highs in May. Then both experienced two of the three biggest corrections of the entire bull market: Primary waves II and IV. This was followed by a Major wave 1 uptrend and Major 2 downtrend into Q4. And both years the SPX finished relatively unchanged. The only difference we can see, using OEW analysis, is that in 2011 a Major wave 3 uptrend was already confirmed heading into yearend. And, in 2015 it has yet to be confirmed. Other than that, and the depth and length of the Primary waves corrections, the two years look quite similar.

From the SPX 1867 Primary IV low in August we labeled five waves up to SPX 2104. SPX 2116 was the actual high, but we counted the uptrend as a failed fifth wave: 1993-1872-2116-2019-2104. The quick two week selloff that followed, which normally occurs after failed fifth waves, took the market down to SPX 1993. After that the market rallied in an apparent three wave structure to SPX 2077, and then headed lower again. While we were expecting a retest of SPX 1993, or the 1973 pivot, the market suddenly reversed at SPX 2005. Failing to make an equal or lower low. Only the DOW met this parameter, not the NAZ/NDX either. As a result the past three weeks have been a bit difficult to track, as we have observed a rally to SPX 2077, a decline to 2005, and a rally to 2082.

The internal structure of the SPX 2077 rally looked impulsive until it hit 2060, then it became quite choppy as it rose to 2077 and headed lower. The recent rally, however, continues to look impulsive despite the big pullback late in the week. If it is also just another counter-trend rally we would expect SPX 1993 or even the 1973 pivot to be tested next. Hopefully 2016 will produce a market that trends again rather than the choppiness of 2015. Medium term support is at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots.

SHORT TERM

As noted above, from the recent SPX 2005 low we can count five waves up: 2023-2006-2067-2044-2082. Then over the last 2+ days the market has declined in three waves: 2046-2063-2044. At Friday’s SPX 2044 low the market had retraced exactly 50% of the recent 2005-2082 rally. At SPX 2034 the retracement would be 61.8%. Anything lower, and this potential uptrend will start looking corrective again.

Overall the market looks good for 2016, but this potential uptrend is still have problems getting into gear on the upside. Short term support is at SPX 2044 and the 2019 pivot, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum displays a positive divergence at Friday’s close after hitting extremely oversold. Best to your trading to start the year.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net gain of 0.3%.

European markets were mostly lower but gained 0.1%.

The Commodity equity group were all lower for a net loss of 2.3%.

The DJ World index remains in a downtrend and lost 0.6% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are still in a downtrend and lost 0.2% on the week.

Crude is also in a downtrend and lost 2.8% on the week.

Gold is in a downtrend too and lost 1.5% on the week.

The USD looks to be in an uptrend and gained 0.7% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Sunday: speech from FED vice chair Fischer at 1:15. Monday: Construction spending and ISM manufacturing at 10am. Tuesday: Auto sales. Wednesday: the FOMC minutes, ADP, Trade deficit, Factory orders and ISM services. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims. Friday: monthly Payrolls (est. +200K), Wholesale inventories and Consumer credit.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2015 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in