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Stocks, What Oil Problem?......

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Apr 19, 2016 - 03:43 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

There was a much anticipated meeting on whether the world's oil producing countries would put a freeze on future oil production since there was a glut due to decreasing demand. If the freeze was to be accepted, it was likely that oil would soar and take the market with it. If the freeze was not accepted, then it was likely oil would tank and yes, take the market with it. The news was bad as the freeze was turned down. The result was a very nasty move lower in oil and in our futures last night. It looked like the market was ready to give it up. To lose the breakout over the trend line at 2075. It had trouble for a few days putting that level away with force. failure seemed to be in the cards. Seemed to be, but in the end it wasn't.


The market held strong after the open. It started to move higher, and the rest is history. The breakout is more real now. Something you can say has more power behind it. A challenge of 2134 over time seems more and more likely, but, of course, never a guarantee. The odds are increasing that we will get at least a test, and then it gets incredibly interesting, but before then we do have some resistance levels to deal with. if today's action is a forecast of what's coming then we'll test the last two areas of resistance before trying 2134. 2104, and then 2116, are up first. So today was an important step to reaching the old 2134 highs. After that we'll see if the impossible can occur, and based on what I've seen thus far, I wouldn't doubt it will. A great day for the bulls.

The important thing to watch out for when a market is going up on bad news with the global economy, and mostly on earnings, is to see if complacency is creeping in. While it has gotten a bit more complacent we are not seeing the type of froth-norm ally associated with market tops. In fact, two weeks back we saw the bull-bear spread reign in 4%. Only at 13%. We should be a bit higher now, but we are far from the 30% reading that causes the first red flag to be raised.

This bull is hated because of logical thinking, and that just doesn't work. That said, it is helping to keep the market moving higher. No one is complaining as those 401K's are bringing about happy smiles every quarter. It may take a parabolic move above 2134 to finally get the complacent action to rock back in, and, if that's the case, then there's plenty of upside left before we have to worry about froth once again. The bulls have time before that occurs. A move above 2134 on a closing basis could cause every last bull to go running in, but even then we'd have quite a run up before anything bad occurred to price.

The market will be dealing with massive negative divergences once we clear 2134. I find it virtually impossible to accept that the market won't get smoked once they kick in, but my guess is they won't kick in. The low-rate environment is too powerful in my estimation, and will allow them, for the first time in my lifetime that I can remember, to be become invalid. We shall see and we must respect them for what they are. You can't just say for sure they won't work, but it seems Ms Yellen, and her low-rate actions, will change the market environment, possibly forever. We'll find out once we take 2134, or should I say, if we clear 2134. Never count your chickens as they say. The market is interesting and running on fed fuel. No end on the horizon.

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


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