Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Silver Short-Term Trend Analysis - 26th June 19
Iran and the Dying Days Of the US Empire - 26th June 19
Why a Saturated Online Gaming Market Spells Good News for Gamblers - 26th June 19
Natural Gas Sets Up Bottom Pattern - 26th June 19
Has Gold Price Broken Out Or Not? Technicals And Fundamentals - 26th June 19
Stocks and XAU Gold Miners Next Bull and Bear Markets are Now Set Up - 26th June 19
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Video - 25th June 19
Today’s Pets.com and NINJA Loan Economy - 25th June 19
Testing the Fed’s Narrative with the Fed’s Data: QT Edition - 25th June 19
What "Pro Traders" use to Find Profitable Trades - eBook - 25th June 19
GDX Gold Stocks ETF - 25th June 19
What Does Facebook’s LIBRA New Crytocurrency Really Offer? - 25th June 19
Why Bond Investors MUST Be Paying Attention to Puerto Rico - 25th June 19
The Next Great Depression in the Making - 25th June 19
The Bad News About Record-Low Unemployment - 24th June 19
Stock Market New High, but…! - 24th June 19
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally Ends - 24th June 19
How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms - 24th June 19
5 basic tips to help mitigate the vulnerability inherent in email communications - 24th June 19
Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - 24th June 19
Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - 23rd June 19
Financial Sector Paints A Clear Picture For Stock Market Trading Profits - 23rd June 19
What You Should Look While Choosing Online Casino - 23rd June 19
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - 22nd June 19
Here’s Why You Should Drive a Piece of Crap Car - 22nd June 19
How Do Stock Prices React to Fed Interest Rate Cuts? - 22nd June 19
Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! - 21st June 19
Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur - 21st June 19
Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned - 21st June 19
Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks - 21st June 19
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - 21st June 19
The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt - 21st June 19
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls - 21st June 19
Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis - 20th June 19
Gold Mining Stocks Waiting on This Chart - 20th June 19
A Key Gold Bull Market Signal - 20th June 19
Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - 20th June 19
Investing in APPLE (AAPL) to Profit From AI Machine Learning Stocks - 20th June 19
Small Cap Stocks May Lead A Market Rally - 20th June 19 -
Interest Rates Square Minus Zero - 20th June 19
Advice for Financing a Luxury Vehicle - 20th June 19
Stock Market Final Blow Off Top Just Hit… Next Week Comes the FIREWORKS - 20th June 19
US Dollar Rallies Off Support But Is This A Top Or Bottom? - 19th June 19
Most Income Investors Are Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller - 19th June 19
Is the Stock Market’s Volatility About to Spike? - 19th June 19
Facebook's Libra Crypto currency vs Bitcoin: Five Key Differences - 19th June 19
Fed May Trigger Wild Swing In Stock Index and Precious Metals - 19th June 19
How Long Do Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Last? - 19th June 19
Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? - 18th June 19
Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention - 18th June 19
The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next - 18th June 19
Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis - 18th June 19
IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video - 18th June 19
Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… - 18th June 19
Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice - 18th June 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019

Stock Market Holding On By A Thread...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 May 05, 2016 - 03:59 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

The Nasdaq has long ago broken down below all key, exponential moving averages. Bad action there, but this has been an S&P 500 bull market for the most part the last year plus. The Nasdaq has been performing poorly due to those higher beta, higher P/E stocks the big money wants nothing to do with. Priceline Inc. (PCLN) was down 100+ today on their earnings report. No mercy anywhere if you have higher P/E stocks. The big boys and girls want lower beta. They want lower P/E and they want lower risk.


A healthy bull is a frothing bull. It's been gone for some time now. That said, the market has remained resilient as you know thanks to Ms Yellen, and her good tidings for the bulls in the form of low rates and lots of stimulus. Mr Draghi, over in Europe, has done his fair share of keeping things up as well. Will they be able to keep this up? I don't know, of course, and neither do any of you. It is the mystery of this market, and also what makes it so tough. Trying to playing on its own is tough, but when you add in interference from the fed, it makes it that much harder to figure out the puzzle.

Today was a day for the bears as they are nearing the break down level on the S&P 500, which, to be exact, is 2043, or where the fifty-day exponential moving average currently lives. The Nasdaq has long ago lost all of those key averages, but for the market to confirm a true trend change the S&P 500 needs to confirm the Nasdaq breakdown. Ever so close for the bears. We saw another gap down today followed by additional selling as the day went along. The S&P 500 getting within a couple of points of breaking down, but finding enough energy to barely hold off the bears. The damage today allowed the bears to break this down tomorrow with a gap if they have what it takes, which they usually don't, but just may this time. For the bulls, it would be great if they gap it down, but run it back up and close with a bottoming stick. That would at least hold off the bears for a little while longer. No guarantee for good, but would allow them to catch their breath. They could use a time out here as the selling has been very intense. Bottom line is today allowed the bears to see the light in terms of changing the short- to medium-term trend.

Markets are always interesting. If you've watched the financial stocks over the past many months you've been a guest in to the world of make believe and hope. We know that these stocks do well when interest rates are rising. If not rising just the perception that they will is more than enough. That happens when there's good economic news because that gets folks to believe fed Yellen will start a rate hike cycle, and if not a cycle, at least some further rate hikes. However, reality comes back when we see bad economic reports come in. We've had quite a few lately from the ISM Manufacturing Report to the GDP number to the ADP payrolls number today.

Not good since this puts the fed on hold for further rate hikes. The overall perception is they won't be raising rates any time soon, and, thus, the banks are now struggling once again. Without the financial stocks participating in the up side it's hard to imagine the S&P 500 not losing key support at some point in the future. We shall see, but the market needs a few good reports, and they need them badly and they need them very soon. The financial stocks will be worth watching daily here.

So support held at the end of the day. Good news for the moment, but we're at an inflection point here folks. If we do lose 2043 with force, we deal with the 200-day exponential moving average next at 2020. If we lose 2020 we see the 1900's very quickly in all likelihood. For this market to break out one would think the fed has done all she can, thus, it'll need something it's not getting. That would be real economic growth and a real pick up in earnings. They are on the decline, and in many cases it's quite severe. Keep an open mind. Let's see if the fed has any more tricks up her sleeves. Day to day with our sole focus being S&P 500 2043.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2016 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules