Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
DoorDash Has All the Makings of the “Next Amazon” - 22nd Jan 21
How to Survive a Silver-Gold Sucker Punch - 22nd Jan 21
2021: The Year of the Gripping Hand - 22nd Jan 21
Technology Minerals appoints ex-BP Petrochemicals CEO as Advisor - 22nd Jan 21
Gold Price Drops Amid Stimulus and Poor Data - 21st Jan 21
Protecting the Vulnerable 2021 - 21st Jan 21
How To Play The Next Stage Of The Marijuana Boom - 21st Jan 21
UK Schools Lockdown 2021 Covid Education Crisis - Home Learning Routine - 21st Jan 21
General Artificial Intelligence Was BORN in 2020! GPT-3, Deep Mind - 20th Jan 21
Bitcoin Price Crash: FCA Warning Was a Slap in the Face. But Not the Cause - 20th Jan 21
US Coronavirus Pandemic 2021 - We’re Going to Need More Than a Vaccine - 20th Jan 21
The Biggest Biotech Story Of 2021? - 20th Jan 21
Biden Bailout, Democrat Takeover to Drive Americans into Gold - 20th Jan 21
Pandemic 2020 Is Gone! Will 2021 Be Better for Gold? - 20th Jan 21
Trump and Coronavirus Pandemic Final US Catastrophe 2021 - 19th Jan 21
How To Find Market Momentum Trades for Explosive Gains - 19th Jan 21
Cryptos: 5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity - 19th Jan 21
Who Will NEXT Be Removed from the Internet? - 19th Jan 21
This Small Company Could Revolutionize The Trillion-Dollar Drug Sector - 19th Jan 21
Gold/SPX Ratio and the Gold Stock Case - 18th Jan 21
More Stock Market Speculative Signs, Energy Rebound, Commodities Breakout - 18th Jan 21
Higher Yields Hit Gold Price, But for How Long? - 18th Jan 21
Some Basic Facts About Forex Trading - 18th Jan 21
Custom Build PC 2021 - Ryzen 5950x, RTX 3080, 64gb DDR4 Specs - Scan Computers 3SX Order Day 11 - 17th Jan 21
UK Car MOT Covid-19 Lockdown Extension 2021 - 17th Jan 21
Why Nvidia Is My “Slam Dunk” Stock Investment for the Decade - 16th Jan 21
Three Financial Markets Price Drivers in a Globalized World - 16th Jan 21
Sheffield Turns Coronavirus Tide, Covid-19 Infections Half Rest of England, implies Fast Pandemic Recovery - 16th Jan 21
Covid and Democrat Blue Wave Beats Gold - 15th Jan 21
On Regime Change, Reputations, the Markets, and Gold and Silver - 15th Jan 21
US Coronavirus Pandemic Final Catastrophe 2021 - 15th Jan 21
The World’s Next Great Onshore Oil Discovery Could Be Here - 15th Jan 21
UK Coronavirus Final Pandemic Catastrophe 2021 - 14th Jan 21
Here's Why Blind Contrarianism Investing Failed in 2020 - 14th Jan 21
US Yield Curve Relentlessly Steepens, Whilst Gold Price Builds a Handle - 14th Jan 21
NEW UK MOT Extensions or has my Car Plate Been Cloned? - 14th Jan 21
How to Save Money While Decorating Your First House - 14th Jan 21
Car Number Plate Cloned Detective Work - PY16 JXV - 14th Jan 21
Big Oil Missed This, Now It Could Be Worth Billions - 14th Jan 21
Are you a Forex trader who needs a bank account? We have the solution! - 14th Jan 21
Finetero Review – Accurate and Efficient Stock Trading Services? - 14th Jan 21
Gold Price Big Picture Trend Forecast 2021 - 13th Jan 21
Are Covid Lockdowns Bullish or Bearish for Stocks? FTSE 100 in Focus - 13th Jan 21
CONgress "Insurrection" Is Just the Latest False Flag Event from the Globalists - 13th Jan 21
Reflation Trade Heating Up - 13th Jan 21
The Most Important Oil Find Of The Next Decade Could Be Here - 13th Jan 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Brexit, Cycles and The Revolt Against Globalism

Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis Jun 29, 2016 - 06:24 AM GMT

By: Clif_Droke

Stock-Markets

Everywhere one turns there is evidence of widespread rage and frustration. The peoples of Europe and the Americas in particular are aggrieved at their political lot and are becoming increasingly angry. What was once a simmering resentment has become a boiling cauldron of discontent.

The latest token of this growing anger is the outcome of Britain's vote to leave the EU. The majority of British voters have decided they've had enough of austerity and have expressed their unhappiness in no uncertain terms, much to the consternation of global financial markets. This in turn has inspired other European countries to pursue independence from the Union.


The powerful tailwinds of global deflation are reflected in the following graph of the Europe ETF. While European equity prices have suffered the effects of investors' uncertainty over the future of the EU, gold prices and other financial safe havens have benefited - and should continue - to benefit from it.

In the U.S., a growing resentment of internationalist policies has spawned the surprising successful Donald Trump presidential campaign. Even Texas has rekindled its long-time passion for self-determination.

The spirit of the times is undeniably one of revolt with independence and freedom from excessive government the rallying cry. The contrast between today's world spirit and that of just 10-20 years ago is indeed stark. At that time the prevailing spirit was one of unity, cooperation and enthusiasm for the burgeoning global economy. Today it's quite the opposite: multiplied millions have had enough of the globalism experiment and are inclined to turn inward rather than outward.

What brought about this stunning change of opinion and how did it happen? Students of history will no doubt recognize the undeniable cyclical nature of human affairs and will readily discern the answer. The long-term cycles which govern the economy and mass human emotion are the primary catalysts in the worldwide populist uprising.

Bureaucrats and elected leaders the world over are puzzled by the growing resentment of the taxpayers and their repudiation of globalism. As history repeatedly shows, however, government tends to be tone deaf to the will of the people at pivotal points in world affairs. This time is proving to be no exception. The latest news headlines demanding a "re-do" of the Brexit vote underscore the rejection of majority will on the part of government. Yet government still wonders why their subjects are in a rebellious mood. As many commentators have recently observed, why even bother holding elections if the majority will is only going to be ignored? Why not dispense with the illusion of the democratic process and openly declare government by decree?

The global growth of the rebellious spirit can be traced to the 120-year Grand Super Cycle made famous by Samuel J. Kress. According to Kress, at the end of each 120-year cycle bottom there is a revolutionary change that accompanies the transition into a new Grand Super Cycle. Not for naught is it sometimes called the Revolutionary Cycle. The previous 120-year bottom in the late 1890s witnessed the efflorescence of the Industrial Revolution in the U.S.; the prior bottom in 1774 saw the American Revolution for independence from England.

Before his passing, Mr. Kress prophesied that the latest 120-year cycle bottom in 2014 would see the establishment of socialist government in the U.S. and the demand for more democracy in other countries. His prediction is starting to be justified as evidenced by the fact that other countries across the globe are fervently trying to throw off the shackles of decades of socialist policies; meanwhile in the U.S. government's role in everyday affairs is expanding apace.

Each phase of the Grand Super Cycle, ascending and descending, has its own peculiar characteristics. The rising phase of the cycle is characterized by economic expansion, optimism, goodwill and trust of government. The descending phase, is marked by economic contraction, pessimism, distrust of institutions and cynicism toward government. Based on the foregoing descriptions, it's easy to see which side of the cycle we've been on in recent years.

A common question concerning the long-term cycle is, "If the 120-year cycle bottom in 2014, why are we still seeing the manifest tokens of a declining cycle?" The answer is that the residual downside force from such a huge cycle will naturally take time to dissipate. Just as a speeding freight train can take miles to reach a complete stop and the tailwinds from a hurricane can linger for hours after the storm passes, the destructive effects of a bottoming cycle can continue for weeks, months, or even years after the cycle has bottomed (depending on the cycle's magnitude). According to Kress, the cycles have a standard deviation (plus-or-minus) of 1-2 percent. A 2 percent standard deviation of the latest 120-year cycle bottom equates to 2.4 years from the cycles nominal bottom of September/October 2014. If there is any validity to the long-term Kress cycle, that would mean we likely wouldn't witness a lifting of the deleterious effects of the cycle until sometime next year.

In the mean time we should expect to see in the coming months a crescendo of the rebellious spirit as the momentum behind the anti-globalist movement reaches explosive proportions. Although only time will provide the final verdict, it can be conjectured that what we're now witnessing is the final "blow-off" phase of the revolutionary mindset which began in the wake of the 2008 credit crisis. As is true of most momentum blow-offs, the final move just prior to exhaustion of the trend tends to make a spectacular showing.

When all is said and done, and the dust has cleared, what can we expect as the final outcome of the Great Global Rebellion? The future is anyone's guess and God only knows what the ultimate result will be. Using history as a template we can, however, make a reasonable conjecture and review some possible scenarios. One such possibility is that the U.S. ultimately ends up in the throes of greater government control than ever, thus continuing the trajectory of the last several decades of federal creep while fulfilling Kress's prediction.

Another potential outcome is that the peoples of the world continue in their determined effort to throw off the shackles of technocratic rule and move toward a path of self-determination. If both scenarios are realized, as per Kress, this would represent a stunning reversal of the prevailing global paradigm of the last 120 years.

Once the tailwinds of the 120-year cycle bottom have completely abated the markets should be in a good position to commence a synchronized (and much needed) global re-inflation phase as the newly formed Grand Super Cycle becomes established. When it finally happens it will be a most welcome change from the rebellious spirit that has characterized the last several years.

The Stock Market Cycles

For the summer months only, the book "The Stock Market Cycles" is available at a special discount to readers of this commentary. The book reveals the key to interpreting long-term stock price movement and economic performance, namely the famous Kress series of yearly cycles. This work was undertaken based on popular demand and was written in a style that casual readers and experts alike can enjoy and understand. The book covers each one of the yearly cycles in the Kress Cycle series, starting with the 2-year cycle and ending with the 120-year Grand Super Cycle.

The book also covers the K Wave and the effects of long-term inflation/deflation that these cycles exert over stock prices and the economy. Each chapter contains illustrations that show exactly how the yearly cycles influenced stock market performance and explains where the peaks and troughs of each cycle are located and how the cycles can predict future market and economic performance. Order your autographed copy today: http://www.clifdroke.com/books/Stock_Market.html

By Clif Droke

www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke is the editor of the daily Gold & Silver Stock Report. Published daily since 2002, the report provides forecasts and analysis of the leading gold, silver, uranium and energy stocks from a short-term technical standpoint. He is also the author of numerous books, including 'How to Read Chart Patterns for Greater Profits.' For more information visit www.clifdroke.com

Clif Droke Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules