Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Trading Markets Amid Sound of Wars

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018 Apr 15, 2018 - 05:30 PM GMT

By: Builderadv

Stock-Markets

Given the sound of wars both in actual terms and in economic terms, what do we see for the next few weeks into stock markets and forex markets ? We must delink our trading from event risk and be focussed on actual data and trading trends. Never trade what should happen but trade what is happening. The political situation is fluid with rumors of Trump unhappiness with Mueller investigations. Then there is the war machine which has kicked a gear with attack on Syria. This is not the end. We need to wait if this is going to go deeper if Russia responds. Then there is a underlying current of trade wars which is yet to be settled. A far lesser event is the earning season which is now upon but markets are still trading at 24x P/E so its fully priced in for a great earning season. In fact if market corrects another 10%, it is still fully valued.


Stock Markets: We have big down move exceeding 5% coming


SPX busted out of the triangle upper boundary at 2670. But it dropped back sharply below 2660 and therefore we can confidently say that this was a false breakout. We see the index now falling back to the lower boundary at 2530. The movement in the forex markets will give us futher clues.

JXY Daily

The rectangle shows the volume profile where there is very little volumes. Markets often tend to move away from these zones very quickly. We see yen index taking support here and rising. Please note that this is not the USDJPY but the YEN index. When the the index rises, USDJPY falls.

Japanese Index JXY weekly

JXY weekly shows contracting weekly candles as it approaches the horizontal support at 93. We do not see the support being taken out because of the lack of momentum in the pair on the weekly.
CFTC positions

YEN cot reports show the short covering seen in leveraged category. From a negative 100k, we moved to +3k. This is a big move and the last time this happened, YEN rallied another 7 to 8% after that.

Why is the yen appreciating?

Well the simple answer is that the Japanese economy is pulling out of a recession and is recovering to its strongest in years. The BoJ will have no choice but to remove the stimulus and the fall IN USDJPY has just started. One of the key metrics for the economy is the cash earnings. Average Cash Earnings y/y is reported at 1.3% which came in higher than the previous release at 1.2%Average Cash Earnings y/y reported at 1.3%. This is higher than the expected number at 0.5%. The mean for " Average Cash Earnings y/y " over the last 21 releases has been 0.5. The current released data is greater than the mean of the last 21 releases. See the trends below between the past and actual release.

EUR forecasts
Inflation picks up in EU

Eurozone consumer prices picked up in March for the first time in four months, while the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in more than nine years during February, developments that will reinforce the European Central Bank’s belief that it is on track to meet its inflation target over coming years. The European Union’s statistics agency Wednesday said consumer prices in that month were 1.4% higher than a year earlier, an increase from the 1.1% rate of inflation recorded in February.

Industrial production in France picks up


French Industrial Production m/m is reported at 1.2% which came in higher than the previous release at -1.8%The French Industrial Production m/m data released at 1.2% which is lower than the expected value at 1.5%. The mean for " French Industrial Production m/m " over the last 21 releases has been 0.1. The current released data is greater than the mean of the last 21 releases. See the trends below between the past and actual release.

Given the economy and inflation starting to build up, EUR can see some traction in the coming weeks. There was mild negativity in EUR area due to under par data for Jan and February but that may be behind us. More importantly inflation is on a trend which is moving higher and if its gets closer to 2%, we will see a move by ECB to normalise.

EUR COT reports

The EUR commitment of traders reports from cftc show the build of positions in EUR contracts. The leveraged money was deeply negative in 2014 but now are slightly positive. They still are not overweight the EUR and hence leaves a lot of room for EURUSD to run higher. At same time the asset category which include large institutions are strongly positive. All in all we see EUR to march higher despite the negativity surrounding it.


We run a high quality and precision investment firm at buildadv.com. Our trade copier has notched up an impressive return since the launch to clients. It has a rich history of trading since 2010. Launched in March on MT4, it is doing exceedingly well as shown below.

All you need is a MT4 broker account to trade our system. No upfront fees or upfront risk. Feel free to contact us and we will set you up if you have all the details

Conclusion:
We see EUR, GBP and YEN appreciating against the USD over the next 6 weeks. We also see stock markets falling back to test 2530 which is the 2018 lows. The breakout at 2670 can be termed as false. Volume data was unimpressive and we see high probability of strong correction.

By Buildadv

http://buildadv.com/

About Buildadv:
Buildadv is a investment management firm. We specialize in premium trading research, chart setups, trading insights and a forex trade copier which generates returns for MT4 trading clients. We operate the BUILDFX Trading system which has a rich history of over 8 years of trading history generating an average return of over 15% a month.
Email: adminsupport@buildadv.com
Website: http://buildadv.com/contact/

Copyright 2018 © Buildadv - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in