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Stock Market US Presidential Cycle and Seasonal Analysis

Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis Aug 08, 2018 - 12:52 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

This is part 6 of my stock market in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast which takes a look at the the US Presidential Cycle and Seasonal analysis expected impact on the stock market.


US Presidential Cycle

For the first year of Trumps Presidency we would constantly hear about how great the stock market was doing under Trump, in fact he still says the same despite the stock market having flat lined for 2018.

The basic pattern for the US Presidential cycle is for a strong election year and post election year, followed by weak Mid-term then a strong pre-election year.

The trend to date is clearly continuing to prove remarkably inline with the US presidential cycle. Which does not bode well for the remainder of the 2018 i.e. implies stocks are going to remain stuck in this trading range for the WHOLE of 2018! Which is one of the reasons why I was bearish for the prospects for the stock market at the start of the year.

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The basic stock market seasonal pattern is after a weak January for stocks to rally into May then down into August, then after a wobble during October, to rally into the end of the year. Well mostly for 2018 that's not how things are playing out as the market has been showing relative strength since Mid May. I supposed it could still fall into Labor day. Anyway the seasonal point to a weak October then its up into the end of the year.

Next > US Economic Fundamentals

Part 7 will be published shortly as my core analysis and detailed trend forecasts are first made available to Patrons who support my work. To get immediate and First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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