Virtually immediately after I posted last weeks Dow trend forecast update that we were a GO for the Santa rally, the Dow decided to take a tumble by falling to a low for the week of 24,285 a sizeable 1100 point drop since my last update. So is the the Santa rally still a go or has fundamental damage been done for the prospects for a Santa rally?

Firstly here's a reminder of my trend forecast for 2018:

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018

Therefore my forecast conclusion as illustrated by the below chart is for the Dow to target a trend towards Dow 26,000 by Mid September, following which the market should correct during October that could retrace all of the move from August to Mid September which would then set the scene for the Santa rally to start during November and continu7e post Christmas that would target a new all time high at approx Dow 27,000.

Subsequent updates charted the unfolding trend accompanied by guidance on any deviation:

11 Sep 2018:

Charts courtesy of https://stockcharts.com

11th Oct 2018:

With my last update of 18th November setting the scene for a Santa rally to Dow 27,000.

Stock Market Remains a GO for a Santa Rally to Dow 27,000

Which brings us to the current state of the stock market trend forecast:

As you can see last week saw the most significant deviation from the trend forecast since I first published my forecast over 4 months ago i.e. expectations were for the trend to oscillate around the remaining trend trajectory towards 27k, instead the Dow has gapped lower towards it's late October low of 24,100, hence this update.

The rest of this analysis has first been made available to patrons who support my work.

For immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Your analyst putting his money where his mouth is by buying the Dow at 24,285.

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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