Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market House Prices Bull Market Trend Current State - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status - Gary_Tanashian
3.Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast - April Update - Nadeem_Walayat
4.When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? - Troy_Bombardia
5.Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold - MoneyMetals
6.BAIDU (BIDU) - Top 10 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Investing To Profit from AI Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Stop Feeding the Chinese Empire - ‘Belt and Road’ Trojan Horse - Richard_Mills
8.Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update - Nadeem_Walayat
9.US China Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports - Richard_Mills
10.How to Invest in AI Stocks to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Global Economic Tensions Translate Into Oil Price Volatility - 22nd May 19
The Coming Pension Crisis Is So Big That It’s a Problem for Everyone - 22nd May 19
Crude Oil, Hot Stocks, and Currencies – Markets III - 22nd May 19
The No.1 Energy Stock for 2019 - 22nd May 19
Brexit Party and Lib-Dems Pull Further Away from Labour and Tories in Latest Opinion Polls - 22nd May 19
The Deep State vs Donald Trump - US vs Them Part 2 - 21st May 19
Deep State & Financial Powers Worry about Alternative Currencies - 21st May 19
Gold’s Exciting Boredom - 21st May 19
Trade War Fears Again, Will Stocks Resume the Downtrend? - 21st May 19
Buffett Mistake Costs Him $4.3 Billion This Year—Here’s What Every Investor Can Learn from It - 21st May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - Video - 20th May 19
A Brief History of Financial Entropy - 20th May 19
Gold, MMT, Fiat Money Inflation In France - 20th May 19
WAR - Us versus Them Narrative - 20th May 19
US - Iran War Safe-haven Reasons to Own Gold - 20th May 19
How long does Google have to reference a website? - 20th May 19
Tory Leadership Contest - Will Michael Gove Stab Boris Johnson in the Back Again? - 19th May 19
Stock Market Counter-trend Rally - 19th May 19
Will Stock Market “Sell in May, Go Away” Lead to a Correction… or a Crash? - 19th May 19
US vs. Global Stocks Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1 - 19th May 19
BrExit Party EarthQuake Could Win it 150 MP's at Next UK General Election! - 18th May 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update - 18th May 19
US Economy to Die a Traditional Death… Inflation Is Going to Move Higher - 18th May 19
Trump’s Trade War Is Good for These 3 Dividend Stocks - 18th May 19
GDX Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals Update - 17th May 19
Stock Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over? - 17th May 19
The Use of Technical Analysis for Forex Traders - 17th May 19
Brexit Party Set to Storm EU Parliament Elections - Seats Forecast - 17th May 19
Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold? - 17th May 19
This Is a Recession Indicator No One Is Talking About—and It’s Flashing Red - 17th May 19
War! Good or Bad for Stocks? - 17th May 19
How Many Seats Will Brexit Party Win - EU Parliament Elections Forecast 2019 - 16th May 19
It’s Not Technology but the Fed That Is Taking Away Jobs - 16th May 19
Learn to Protect your Forex Trading Capital - 16th May 19
Gold Ratio Charts Offer The Keys to the Bull Market - 16th May 19
Is Someone Secretly Smashing the Stock Market at Night? - 16th May 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

U.S. House Prices Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021

Bitcoin Price Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019

Currencies / Bitcoin Feb 04, 2019 - 10:50 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Currencies

2018 was the year the bitcoin crypto bubble burst that witnessed the bitcoin price first collapse to a floor of $6000, from which each attempted bounce failed to generate any follow through, and the longer the failure for a breakout higher continued then the greater the probability that the price would eventually break lower, below the $6000 floor. Which is what transpired during November that saw Bitcoin plunge to a new low of $3,100 by Mid December, a far cry from the fantasy of first revisiting $20k and then $50k that a naive 'manipulated' Bitcoin community had pinned their hopes and dreams on whilst immersed in an endless feedback loop of perma bull bitcoin pump mania commentary, that was the mainstay of the internet during 2018, whilst the manipulators were dumping their holdings onto the naive players. Just like what the pump and dumpers have been doing with penny stocks for over 100 years!


This analysis was first made availale to Patrons who support my work. https://www.patreon.com/posts/bitcoin-analysis-23665835

So for First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And it was an even worse experience for holders of Alt coins such as Ethereum that collapsed from $1000 to $100, and that's before over $1 billion of theft of crypto's straight out of the exchange held wallets of retail investors.

But first a recap of my forecast expectations for 2018 which I published when the crypto was trading at USD 14,000, warning that the Bitcoin price was likely to continue crashing lower towards a target of $5,000, a forecast that at the time was met with much denial from the bitcoin community who were focused on fantasising about the crypto soon revisiting $20k.

02 Jan 2018 - Bitcoin Crash Not Over, Crypto Gamblers Prepare for Spike Down to $5,000

As for what bitcoin could do during 2018, well the price may have recovered by some 30% from the recent $10k low but I doubt that the decline is over, so it looks like bitcoin holders are currently in the calm before the next Bitcoin storm, another down leg to well below $10k, probably a spike down to $5k! Following which I would expect Bitcoin to be pretty much dead for the rest of the year, i.e. don't expect a return to $20k anytime soon! So Bitcoin gamblers beware!

Bitcoin Price Forecast 2018 - Will 2017 Crypto Bubble Mania Repeat?

And my update of 5th Feb at BTC $8k reaffirmed expectations for downwards price spiral now towards lower to $4k

05 Feb 2018 - Bitcoin Crypto Currencies Crash 2018, Are We Near the Bottom?

So what does the chart say for the prospects for Bitcoin, well the declines momentum has fallen slightly which suggests that the rate of decent should gradually become milder.

However, the downwards trend / collapse remains in progress so there has been little deviation against my forecast to date which means Bitcoin remains heading for a spike down to $5,000 this year.

With my look at Bitcoin on 19th March warning against getting sucked into a suckers rally at the time which had seen BTC rally from a low $7,200 to $8,600. Where instead I warned that the Bitcoin price rather than recovering could slice through $5k, then $4k and even $3k and that I would not be surprised if Bitcoin went as low as $2,000!

19 Mar 2018 - Can Bitcoin Price Rally Continue After Paypal Fake FUD Attack?

Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast, PayPal FUD Fake Cryptocurrency Warning

Bitcoin Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019

So here we stand at then end of December 2018 with the Bitcoin price currently trading at $3,680! Mission accomplished in terms of my forecast for 2018.

The Bitcoin price failed to hold the line at $6000 which acted as support from June through to November after repeated failures to breakout higher sent the Bitcoin price slicing straight through $4000, and barely managing to hold $3000 before bouncing during the latter half of December, Though without any significant strength behind the current bounce.

The long-term Bitcoin illustrates just how catastrophic was Novembers break below $6000, that not only sowed the seeds for a further 50% CRASH in the price to $3000 but potentially sows the seeds of far worse to come i.e. the chart to me implies that the Bitcoin price could even trade below $1000!

Forecasting 2019

The bounce off of $3000 has been pretty weak, coming nowhere near retracing the 50% CRASH from $6000 which to me heavy overhead selling pressure, itching to get out of their bitcoin holdings. Which sows the seeds for a break below $3000, regardless of the perma recovery mantra that you will tend to be reading elsewhere online, instead to likely conclude in another 50% in CRASH in Price.

The outlook for Bitcoin going into 2019 is for chopping trading during the first half of the year between a range of $3000 and $5000, with heavy resistance between $6k and $6.5k that Bitcoin is unlikely to trade into. However this trading range is a primed for a 50% CRASH on the current price of $3815. Therefore my forecast conclusion is for a first half of 2019 for the Bitcoin trading range to resolve in a 50% CRASH to below $2000, targeting a crash to at least $1900 and likely much lower which I will revisit the prospects of during 2019.

The bottom line is that the Bitcoin HODL's are going to feel much more pain during 2019 with NO Signs visible of any price recovery for at least the first half of 2019. Regardless of what the Bitcoin manipulators are trying to engineer for the retail investing community to get sucked into.

Peering into the Mysts of Time

Could the Bitcoin price collapse to under $100, $10, even $1? That's going to sound like an impossible nightmare scenario for all the Bitcoiners out there, but remember this, at it's heart Bitcoin is just a cyber technology, and ALL technologies eventually become obsolete, especially given the fact that there are already over 1500 alt coins out there, with many more innovations to come during 2019. And then we have the role of government regulation, control and taxation of crypto currencies.

So take this as a warning that the 2008 vintage Bitcoin could be on a downwards death spiral towards ZERO!

2019 Analysis

Going into 2019 my primary focus remains analysis of the housing markets towards concluding in a high probability multi-year trend forecast for UK and US house prices, and I will likely touch on other housing markets as well, the following illustrates the depth of work involved -

uk-house-prices-analysis-2019

This this analysis will first be made available to Patrons who support my work. So for First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules