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Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting

Politics / UK Politics Jun 17, 2019 - 08:51 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Politics

The latest odds for who who is likely to be the next tory leader have continued to narrow in Boris Johnson's favour with the latest price of just 1.23 which is set against 1.84 a week ago, 2.98 a week before that, 4+ a month before and 5+ a few months ago. So the train for betting on Boris Johnson has left the station as the risk vs reward is just not there. I don't take bets where the return on a £100 risk is just £23, even if I am pretty sure the bet will come good because risk vs reward is one of the primary rules for successful trading as iterated in my January 2019 article on the real secrets for successful trading. The Real Secret for Successful Trading


What about banking profits by cashing in early? After all we first got to definitively bet on Boris Johnson when he was trading at 5.2, where even a small bet would yield a healthy open profit as one of the benefits of using the likes of Betfair is that it allows for trades (bets) to be exited early to further control risk.

Well according to my calc's Betfair's cash out is offering about 18% LESS PROFIT than what the market price suggests it should be. So it does not exactly translate into caching out at the current market price which for BJ would be 1.24 (Lay price).

So looking at other bets available on the Tory Leadership contest then there looks like there still is a good risk vs reward market opportunity in this leadership contest and that is who will join Boris in a head to head contest for the votes of 150,000 Tory party members as since the leadership race kicked off my view has been that the two most likely to go to the tory electorate would be Johnson and Gove as iterated in my most recent video.

Boris Johnson Vs Michael Gove Tory Leadership Grudge Match - Video

However, that is NOT what the political pundits and markets are stating who instead are favouring Jeremy Hunt who trades at 1.86 against Boris Johnson on 1.04.

Whilst Michael "Back stabber" Gove trades at 3.7. That's a potential £270 profit for a £100 risk! Of course I could be wrong, after all it is a gamble. Still unless I am missing something obvious, I cannot see how Tory MP's will want to send Theresa May mk2 to Tory party members to vote on as they DON'T want another REMAINER! That is CERTAIN! And thus the two who go to the Tory electorate MUST be BREXITEERS!

So I just cannot see how it could be remainer Hunt. Whilst Raab is even more to the right than Boris so I can't see him climbing into the No 2 spot either. Therefore we appear to have another potential betting markets anomaly to profit from courtesy of the controversy surrounding Gove's admission of snorting cocaine in his 30's. Which means as soon as the mainstream press realise this then the price for Gove could move sharply in his favour, probably following Tuesday's Round 2 vote. The only fly in the ointment is if Boris hoovers up too many Brexit votes and thus not enough left for Gove which is a possibility, and it could be possible that some Boris backers vote tactically for Hunt as it would be easier for Boris to win head to head against a Remainer than another Brexiteer which could be being factored in by the betting markets.

Anyway 3.7 presents a good risk vs reward for the person I see as being most probable to go head to head with Boris Johnson as Jeremy Hunt as Tory leader would do diddly squat to see off the existential threat that Farage's Brexit Party poses to the Tories and thus has zero chance of getting past tory party members.

Though do remember we are GAMBLING, so don't get carried away when placing bets.

This analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work - Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting

So for first Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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