My analysis has so far painted an overall bullish picture for US house prices albeit at a slower pace than the 5% or so of recent years. However, my primary indicator on the health of the US housing market that has proven accurate for literally decades! Catching every major bull and bear market of the past 30 years! From it's first SELL signal in 1990 to it's last BUY in 2012, is once more warning that real terms house prices are about to go NEGATIVE!

The latest published data for January 2019 has real terms house prices momentum declining to just +0.7% from +1.2% the month before, which means that we could be as little as 2 months away from triggering a SELL SIGNAL for US HOUSE PRICES for March 2019 data.

Yes, no indicator will ever be 100% reliable, after all there was an early false buy signal in 2010, with the actual low coming in about 18 months later. Though only marginally lower. Perhaps we will see a similar pattern this time around, i.e. an early false SELL with the MAIN SELL signal coming in late 2020 or early 2021.

However my primary US house prices indicator should not be ignored and it is giving an EARLY WARNING. And given my earlier momentum analysis I don't need to wait for March data to be released to know that house prices momentum will continue to decline for several more months. Which means the the US House Prices Real terms SELL SIGNAL WILL SOON BE TRIGGERED!

Formulating a US House Prices Forecast

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So for First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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