Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
CHIA Coins After 1st Week of Plotting 140 Plot 14tb Farm. Crunching the Numbers How to Win - 15th May 21
Tips to Create the Best Cross-Functional Teams - 15th May 21
Gold: Lose a Battle to Win the War - 14th May 21
Are You Invested in America’s “Two-Hour Boom” Fast Shipping Stocks? - 14th May 21
Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
6 Solid Signs You Should Have Your Smart Device Repaired Right Away - 14th May 21
Ways to Finance Your Business Growth - 14th May 21
Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
How Much CHIA Coins Profit from 100 Plot 10tb Farm? Hard Drive Space Mining - 13th May 21
Stock Market Bulls Getting Caught in the Whirlwind - 13th May 21
Legoland Windsor Mini land and Sky Train Virtual Tour in VR 360 - UK London Holidays 2021 - 13th May 21
Peak Growth and Inflation - 13th May 21
Where’s The Fed? Watch Precious Metals For Signs Of Inflation Panic - 13th May 21
Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
India Covid Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh - 13th May 21
TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
Gold Price During Hyperinflation - 12th May 21
Stock Market Extending Phase Two? - 12th May 21
Crypto 101 for new traders – ETH or BTC? - 12th May 21
Stock Market Enters Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast Time Window - 11th May 21
GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
Cathy Wood Bubble Bursts as ARK Funds CRASH! Enter into a Severe Bear Market - 11th May 21
Apply This Technique to Stop Rushing into Trades - 10th May 21
Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
CHIA Getting Started SSD Crypto Mining by Plotting and Farming on Your Hard Drives Guide - 9th May 21
Yaheetech Mesh Best Cheap Computer /. Gaming Chairs on Amazon Review - 9th May 21
Breaking US Trade Embargo with Cuba - Build 7 Computers in 14 Hours Before Ship Sales Challenge - 9th May 21
Dripcoin Applies New Technology That Provides Faster Order Execution - 9th May 21
Capital Gains Tax Hike News: Was It REALLY to Blame for Sell-off? - 7th May 21
Stock Market Transportation Index Continues To Grind Higher - 7th May 21
SPX Stock Market Correction Arriving or Not? - 7th May 21
How to Invest in an Online Casino? - 7th May 21
Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase - 6th May 21
Vaccine Economic Boom and Bust - 6th May 21
USDX, Gold Miners: The Lion and the Jackals - 6th May 21
What If You Turn Off Your PC During Windows Update? Stuck on Automatic Repair Nightmare! - 6th May 21
4 Insurance Policies You Should Consider Buying - 6th May 21
Fed Taper Smoke and Mirrors - 5th May 21
Global Economic Recovery 2021 and the Dark Legacies of Smoot-Hawley - 5th May 21
Utility Stocks Continue To Rally – Sending A Warning Signal Yet? - 5th May 21
ROIMAX Trading Platform Review - 5th May 21
Gas and Electricity Price Trends so far in 2021 for the United Kingdom - 5th May 21
Crypto Bubble Mania Free Money GPU Mining With NiceHash Continues... - 4th May 21
Stock Market SPX Short-term Correction - 4th May 21
Gold & Silver Wait Their Turn to Ride the Inflationary Wave - 4th May 21
Gold Can’t Wait to Fall – Even Without USDX’s Help - 4th May 21
Stock Market Investor Psychology: Here are 2 Rare Traits Now on Display - 4th May 21
Sheffield Peoples Referendum May 6th Local Elections 2021 - Vote for Committee Decision's or Dictatorship - 4th May 21
AlphaLive Brings Out Latest Trading App for Android - 4th May 21
India Covid-19 Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan & Bangladesh, Covid in Italy August 2019! - 3rd May 21
Why Ryzen PBO Overclock is Better than ALL Core Under Volting - 5950x, 5900x, 5800x, 5600x Despite Benchmarks - 3rd May 21
MMT: Medieval Monetary Theory - 3rd May 21
Magical Flowering Budgies Bird of Paradise Indoor Grape Vine Flying Fun in VR 3D 180 UK - 3rd May 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast and AI Investing Update (2/2)

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019 Jul 31, 2019 - 10:35 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

This is part 2 of my July stock market trend forecast update. Much as expected the correction ended and resolved in a rally towards the trend forecast. With the Dow currently deviating from the trend forecast by about +1.5%.


This analysis will now update the probability for the Dow continuing to oscillate around the trend forecast (red line) towards a September high of at least Dow 28k.

Technical Analysis

Trend Analysis

  • The Dow has been putting in a series of higher lows and highs, however the pace of advance has slowed which implies a correction is imminent to target 26,500 as the Dow digests having breached the preceding high of 27k.
  • Support is at 26,500, 26,000, 25,200 and 24,700.
  • Trendline support is at 25,500, rising to 26,000 by the end of July. So the Dow has plenty of room to correct down to 26k if it chose to without altering the overall bullish picture.

Elliott Wave

  • May's 3 wave downtrend was clearly corrective. Which implies we should be in for similar impulse wave to Wave 1 that ran for 5000 points, which if replicated would roughly take the Dow to 30,000!
  • On a shorter scale we appear to be in a minor 5th wave which implies to expect a minor correction before the next leg higher to further new all time highs,

MACD - Gave a strong bullish signal early June, that implied that the Dow could run higher for a couple more months before encountering resistance i.e. early August.

Sell in May and Go Away - Seasonal pattern points to a continuation of the rally into the end of August.

Conclusion : Overall everything seems to be pointing towards a continuation of the stock market rally in line with my original trend forecast posted over 3 months ago! So I see no reason not to expect the Dow to continue to oscillate around forecast red line towards a target of at least Dow 28,000 by Mid September 2019. With the immediate trend expected to converge with the forecast i.e. a correction taking the Dow to the the forecast red line.

Peering into the Mists of Time

With the Fed now stating that it's going to CUT RATES whilst the DOW is trading AT new all time highs suggests to expect a more positive outlook for 2020 as the Fed is clearly seeking to reduce the risks of recession during election year and thus feed the stocks bull market, so I would not be surprised if this year we see a Santa rally to above Dow 30k on the back of Fed rate cuts! That's of course IF the Fed remains on track towards avoiding a 2020 recession!

AI Stocks Investing

And as I stated in the midst of the May correction, at the end of the day we are looking for opportunities to accumulate into the machine intelligence mega-trend stocks, especially those I consider primary AI stocks when they deviate significantly from the sector such as INTEL which is currently under performing at $48 after hitting a high of $59 in April.

Whilst all tech eyes are on Intel's 10th generation of Intel Core processors code named Ice Lake to replace the i7 range. However, the real developments are taking place with their AI neural net processors such as Nervana to allow for a massive expansion in AI complexity.

Intel Corporation’s self-learning neuromorphic research chip, code-named “Loihi.” (Credit: Intel Corporation)

And beyond that are Quantum Computers with Intel's latest test chip being the 48-qubit Tangle Lake.

As part of the race to develop Quantum computers between Intel, IBM and Google. The 48-qubit test chip is potentially more powerful than any conventional micro processor. Intel has gone from a 7-qubit, to 17-qubit to now a 48-qubit chip over the past 3 years. Though the technology is likely still over a decade away from being practical, as it's yet to be figured out how to actually program them to fully utilise their immense potential processing power and we can only imagine the processing power that will come from systems comprising thousands of qubits. And remember that would just mark the BEGINNING much like being back in 1971 when Intel launched their first commercial microprocessor, the 4004! Qubits are the future! It's just that, that future is more than a decade away.

EVERYTHING IS GOING TO CHANGE! Which is why INTEL, IBM and Google are Primary!

NVIDIA - a higher risk tertiary stock is also showing a significant deviation in trend.

Whilst most of the rest have launched into space. For instance Facebook is up 20%, Microsoft 17%. Apple 12%.....

Remember investing is to accumulate now for the big pay off when AI changes EVERYTHING, because we are going EXPONENTIAL!

This analysis was first been made available to Patrons who support my work. Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast July 2019 Update

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Scheduled Analysis :

  • Silver Forecast Update
  • China Stock Market SSEC
  • NASDAQ
  • GBP/USD
  • EuroDollar Futures
  • Bitcoin Update
  • UK Housing market series
  • Machine Intelligence Investing stocks sub sector analysis
  • EUR/RUB
Recent Analysis includes:

And ensure you are subscribed to my FREE Newsletter to get my public analysis in your email in box (only requirement is an email address).

Your analyst

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

kudikyala
14 Aug 19, 23:52
yield curve inversion and stock market forecast

Hi Nadeem,

Do you see any effect of today's yield curve inversion on your stock market trend forecast of 28000 by middle of September? any comments here, where market is at a critical decision point for next 4 weeks to jump from current level of 25400 to 28000, that would be a gain of 2500 points in 4 weeks time. Is this even a possibility at this point of time? Your comment are highly appreciated.

Thanks,

Shyam


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in