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How Low Could the Amazon (AMZN) Stock Price Fall?

Companies / Amazon May 19, 2022 - 06:39 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Companies

Amazon $2485 : PE 46.7: EGF -68% : EC 332

Amazon Crashed 10% on BAD earnings as Amazon delivered an EPS of -$7.56 vs $8.73 expected, why were Amazon's earnings so bad? It's because the US is going into significant economic slowdown that increases the odds of a recession being declared this year!. Amazons PE before earnings was 43.7, AFTER earnings and the price plunge the PE is 46.7, That's right AMAZON is MORE EXPENSIVE AFTER the PRICE DROP THAN BEFORE! Pay attention here and learn a valuable lesson not to just buy a stock because it drops! For amazon to trade at a PE of 43.7 the stock would need to drop to $2325.


How low could Amazon fall?

I would not be surprised if Amazon trades down all the way to to $2000 so there is plenty more downside in this tech giant to weigh down on the markets.

Amazon stocks buying Levels are $2412, $2346, $2266, $2167, $2032 (I am only buying small). I am now 39% invested up from 28%, however I have decided to decrease my target exposure by about 25% so my current exposure jumps to 51%. And I am only going to continue to add via small buys as the stock price falls towards $2,000!

The bottom line is I have always classed Amazon as being a dubious stock, to much financial engineering going on which is why I stated that I don't trust it's EGF of 71% and is a stock that I don't entirely understand. Still the stock is prone to strong trends higher on very high multiples and does have a tendency to spike higher which means there is a good probability that Amazon will eventually trade to new all time highs Basically I don't really like Amazon, which means on a spike above $3000 I will once more seek to sell most of that which I bought, until then I continue to lightly accumulate. I have also dropped it a notch on my AI stocks table to Number 8.

Remember folks without the benefit of hindsight, buying levels are the next best thing, keeps one out or light until deep deviations materialise, else one would be like the many fools peppered on youtube who thought Amazon was a good buy at $3000 just because they announced a stock split such as this clown who dumped $60k into Amazon at near $3000 a share.

For just $4 bucks per month he would now be over $10k better off and there are countless examples of such lemmingesk behaviour following Amazon and Alphabets stock spit announcements as if it were a signal to go ALL IN on these stocks for no fundamental or even technical reason.

What's the odds this fool will soon SELL ALL at a MUCH LOWER PRICE, at $2100? I'll update if I see such a video.

This video is an excerpt from my recent analysis that warned that Apple and Microsoft were on the precipice of breaking lower Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! that was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Most recent analysis -

Whilst my recent in-depth analysis is - UK House Prices Three Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025, where I pealed away every layer of the UK housing market I could think of to arrive at a high probability of trend forecast, no following of the consensus herd here!

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast 
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024

So if you want immediate access to a high probability trend forecast of UK house prices, with US and global housing markets analysis to follow soon then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My Main Analysis Schedule

  • UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
  • US House Prices Trend Forecast - 70%
  • Global Housing / Investing Markets - 60%
  • US Dollar / British Pound Trend Forecasts - 0%
  • Stock Market Trend forecast into End 2022 - 0%
  • High Risk Stocks Update - Health / Biotech Focus - 0%
  • How to Get Rich - 85%
  • Gold and Silver Analysis - 0%
  • State of the Crypto Markets

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your analyst BUYING the panic selling falling knives.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2022 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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