Financial markets trade on future expectations. At turning points, the majority of investors position themselves on the wrong side of the trade. Simply put, on each side of the trade it's either money or numbers.

We position ourselves with money and against numbers. For example, days after Hurricane Katrina had hit the U.S., the belief that crude oil could only go higher was widespread. In fact, on Sept 7 th , 2005 96 % of advisors and analysts surveyed by CONSENSUS, Inc. were bullish on oil (chart below). Or simply put, big numbers were betting against big money. And what happened? The crude price subsequently fell 20%. Big money won.

With pessimistic sentiment at a similar widespread extreme (92%) towards the U.S. dollar, it is highly probably that a turn is near. With a large percentage of investors positioned for a continued fall in the U.S. dollar, what is the wise way to be positioned?

If you appreciate this type of contrarian analysis, our monthly Investment Analysis Report allows a more in-depth look at markets. Starting in July, our monthly investment analysis report will require a subscription fee of $40 a month. However current free readers may ‘reserve their seat' via FeedBlitz for half price ($20 a month).

By Paul Lamont
www.LTAdvisors.net

At Lamont Trading Advisors, Inc. we specialize in the management of risk and preservation of wealth. Visit our Current Strategy section for information on our asset allocation recommendations or Contact Us if you would also like to be notified when our investment analysis reports are published.

Copyright ©2007 Lamont Trading Advisors, Inc. Paul Lamont is President of Lamont Trading Advisors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the State of Alabama. Persons in states outside of Alabama should be aware that we are relying on de minimis contact rules within their respective home state. For more information about our firm visit www.LTAdvisors.net , or to receive a copy of our disclosure form ADV, please email us at advrequest@ltadvisors.net, or call (256) 850-4161.

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