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Bullish on Energy and Chip Stock ETFs

Stock-Markets / Exchange Traded Funds Mar 05, 2009 - 01:49 PM GMT

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Stock-Markets For better or worse, to participate in another potent recovery rally, our model trading portfolio positioned long in energy -- like the ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas ETF (NYSE: DIG) -- and in the semiconductor sectors, rather than in the major equity market ETFs, such as the SPY's, Q's, or DIA's.


My technical work argues that the energy sectors are bottoming/turning, while the semiconductor group -- represented by the Semiconductor HLDRs ETF (AMEX: SMH) -- as a subset of the larger QQQQ technology sector exhibits impressive relative strength.

For those of you who are otherwise inclined to use the major equity market ETFs to participate in a recovery rally, be aware that the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY)'s have a Double Low at 68.75/80 this week, while the PowerShares QQQ (Nasdaq: QQQQ)'s have a "stepped up" Double Low at 26.17/52. Both major market ETFs may be putting in a significant secondary low (with Tues. post closing lows).

To the extent the Double Lows hold, the SPYs and the Qs are positioned for a very reasonable risk-reward long side opportunity... as long as the lows (give or take 1/2% break of the lows) remain intact.

Once again, if the indices push off of their lows this afternoon, all eyes will be fixated on the final hour of trading-- especially ahead of tomorrow AM's Unemployment Report at 8:30 AM ET (which will be bad, but could be disastrous). In other words, taking the positions HOME tonight will involve an entirely new level of risk tolerance and intestinal fortitude.

Sign up for a free 15-day trial to Mike's ETF Trading Diary today.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

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