Thursday, April 06, 2017
From Inflation to Imflation, Agflation and Munflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Submissions
Vakhtang Charaia and Vladimer Papava write: Inflation is an important macroeconomic indicator for the analysis of an established economic situation as well as forecasting the economic development for any country. The “consumer basket,” which helps to indicate the consumer price index (CPI) or the average inflation rate, incorporates several commodity groups and given the correspondent weights encompasses different goods and services. Some of the commodity groups (e.g. electronics, new and used cars, furniture, hotel and restaurant services, etc.) fails to reflect the problem of the low-income population.
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Thursday, April 06, 2017
The 2 Best Assets to Own While Waiting for a Recession / Stock-Markets / Investing 2017
By: John_Mauldin
BY STEPHEN MCBRIDE : The current bull market celebrated its eighth birthday on March 9. At 96-months long, it’s now the second longest in history.
However, with the S&P 500 set to have its worst monthly performance in over a year and the DJIA down six days in a row, questions have arisen about how much longer this run can continue.
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Thursday, April 06, 2017
EU-UK Trade Will Continue Because Germany Needs It To / Politics / BrExit
By: John_Mauldin
BY JACOB SHAPIRO : British Prime Minister Theresa May has signed a letter officially invoking Article 50. That starts the process of the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union.
Almost a year has passed since 52% of British voters opted to leave the EU. But the process for separation has now been initiated. The next issue is how to understand what will happen during the two years of UK-EU negotiations that lie ahead.
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Thursday, April 06, 2017
Gold and Silver Boom or Bust? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Hubert_Moolman
Gold and silver prices are at a critical point. It appears that we will see massive price movements up or down, soon. Conditions are very similar to that of the early 80s (circa 1983), for example, when the Dow had just made a significant breakout, after a 17-year consolidation. See below, a long term chart for the Dow (generated at tradingview.com):
Thursday, April 06, 2017
The BrExit War, Game Theory Strategy for What UK Should Do to Win / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The BrExit Story - BrExit is the latest big story for the people of Britain to believe in, a story that has split the population in half between the Remainer's and the Leavers. The BrExit vote was a reaction to the slow dissolution of what was once the world’s most powerful nation into just another bolt on to the European Union Superstate. For Leavers BrExit is seen as a last ditched effort for Britain to resurrect its golden age. So whilst you read part 2 of my comprehensive BrExit analysis, remember that BrExit is just the latest story built on past stories of glory and it won't be too long before we all move onto the next big story, as that is what humans do best, tell stories and believe them to be true, be they religious, political, social, personal, ethnic or economic stories. But today's story is BrExit.
Thursday, April 06, 2017
The Myth of Market Shocks / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: EWI
An Excerpt from Chapter 1 of The Socionomic Theory of Finance
By Robert Prechter
Few people find a new theory accessible until they first see errors in the old way of thinking. Part I of this book challenges the universally accepted paradigm under which humans' rational reactions to exogenous (external, or externally generated) causes purportedly account for financial market behavior. The current chapter explores whether dramatic news events affect financial markets.
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Thursday, April 06, 2017
The Syria ‘Chemical Attack’ / Politics / Syria
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Reading up on the Syria ‘chemical attack’ issue (is that the right term to use?). The headlines are entirely predictable, and by now that probably won’t surprise anyone, no matter where they are or what views they adhere to. We know there’s been an attack and that some kind of chemical was used. The media talk about sarin.
They also, almost unanimously, blame the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad for it. But that’s the same government that just this week saw both US Foreign Secretary Rex Tillerson and US UN enjoy Nikki Haley point to a significant shift in American policy, towards a view that removing Assad is no longer a priority in US Middle-East policy.
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Wednesday, April 05, 2017
Stock Market Investors Stupid is as Stupid Goes / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: James_Quinn
If you prefer fake news, fake data, and a fake narrative about an improving economy and stock market headed to 30,000, don’t read this fact based, reality check article. The level of stupidity engulfing the country has reached epic proportions, as the mainstream fake news networks flog bullshit Russian conspiracy stories, knowing at least 50% of the non-thinking iGadget distracted public believes anything they hear on the boob tube.
This stupendous degree of utter stupidity goes to a new level of idiocy when it comes to the stock market. The rigged fleecing machine known as Wall Street has gone into hyper-drive since futures dropped by 700 points on the night of Trump’s election. An already extremely overvalued market, as measured by every historically accurate valuation metric, soared by 4,000 points from that futures low – over 20% – to an all-time high. Despite dozens of warning signs and the experience of two 40% to 50% crashes in the last fifteen years, lemming like investors are confident the future is so bright they gotta wear shades.
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Wednesday, April 05, 2017
When Will Russia Run Out Of Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
On a global level, 2015 and 2016 marked the lowest level of new conventional oil discoveries since 1952. In 2016, only 3.7 billion barrels of conventional oil were discovered, roughly 45 days of global crude consumption or 0.2 percent of global proved reserves. Globally, exploratory drilling fell by almost 20 percent in 2015 and fell even further in 2016. Russia’s exploration activities, which were hit not only by plummeting oil prices but also by a targeted sanctions regime, suffered a double blow during this period. In 2015, only seven new hydrocarbon discoveries were made in Russia, three of them in the Baltic Sea. In 2016, oil and gas companies in Russia discovered 40 prospective fields, however, the 3P reserves of the largest among them, Rosneft’s Nertsetinskoye, amounted to 17.4 million tons. This stands in stark contrast with pre-sanction period achievements, for instance, 2014’s largest find, Pobeda, is believed to contain 130 million tons of oil and 0.5TCm of gas.
Wednesday, April 05, 2017
Stocks Will Always Go Up, What Could Possibly Go Wrong? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Axel_Merk
This time is different. Stocks will always go up. And pigs can fly. Given that pigs are highly intelligent, don't bet against them. That said, investors might want to take at least the first two statements with a grain of salt.
In the 1990s, stocks continued to rise relentlessly for years, even after then Fed Chair Greenspan warned of irrational exuberance in late 1996.
Last decade, the rally in home prices continued as ever more people appeared convinced that home prices never fall.
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Wednesday, April 05, 2017
How Will Falling Oil Prices Impact on Climate Change? / Commodities / Climate Change
By: Submissions
The state of the oil market has remained a talking point for months now, after prices plummeted and supply lines increased for the third consecutive year in 2016. While the OPEC has finally taken action and attempted to broker separate deals between member and non-member nations, there remain some concerns that a lack of universal cooperation will ultimately doom these agreements to failure.
Wednesday, April 05, 2017
Odd, Ominous Economic Trend in the US That Is Not Seen Anywhere Else in the World / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I’ve written about this previously, but there are 10 million American men of prime working age (25 to 54) who have simply dropped out of the workforce. And most of them have not only dropped out of the workforce, they have also dropped out from any commitments or responsibilities to society.
It is not just the labor force they are not participating in; they are not participating in the normal ebb and flow of community life.
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Wednesday, April 05, 2017
India’s Technological Revolution Has Already Left the West Behind / Economics / India
By: John_Mauldin
My friend Raoul Pal, mastermind of Global Macro Investor, writes one of the most expensive macroeconomic letters in the world. His subscriber list is short and extremely exclusive.
Raul comes up with more unique ideas per year than any man I know. What’s fascinating is that once he comes up with an idea, you then begin to see it filtering into the trading/hedge fund community.
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Wednesday, April 05, 2017
British Billionaire Jim Mellon Says Biotech Is the Best Investment Now / Companies / BioTech
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK COX : We are in the midst of an unprecedented change. Life spans have nearly doubled since the beginning of the 20th century. In addition, recent advances in computer technology have had a huge impact on biological sciences, which means this trend will accelerate.
Still, most people think that the process of aging will go on pretty much as it is now. They’re wrong.
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Wednesday, April 05, 2017
2 Charts Show Just How Close We Are to US Healthcare Collapse / Politics / Healthcare Sector
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Like it or not, Obamacare lives. The question is, for how long?
President Trump is right when he says the Affordable Care Act will collapse on its own. Its condition is terminal, and Congress declined treatment.
Maybe that’s no big deal to you. Maybe you’re on Medicare, or get group health coverage from your employer, or are independently wealthy, or you’re in good health and confident you will remain so.
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Wednesday, April 05, 2017
US Debt Ceiling Shutdown: What Would Happen if the Government Shut Down For Good? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jeff_Berwick
It’s that time of year again where the US government acts like it will “shut down” and argues about nonsensical things to try to make people believe they are somehow necessary.
In 2015, Congress suspended the ceiling, which let the government borrow as much as it wanted through March 15, 2017. On that date, the total national debt was $19.846 trillion, and the government can't exceed that limit without approval from Congress.
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Wednesday, April 05, 2017
What Happens to Britain’s Borders After the Brexit? Potential to Fracture the U.K. / Politics / BrExit
By: STRATFOR
Splitting from the European Union will inevitably strain the United Kingdom's territorial integrity. Those pushing for Scotland and Northern Ireland to secede from the United Kingdom are using Brexit to justify their agendas. Brexit will also open a debate between the central government in London and the country's devolved governments about who will control the powers that will be repatriated from Brussels. With authority over policy areas such as agriculture, fisheries, industry and the environment returning to the United Kingdom after Brexit, the administrations of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will push London to transfer many of those attributions to them.
Wednesday, April 05, 2017
Stock Market Finished Positive Just Under Key Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market had somewhat of a turnaround Tuesday today, but the indices suffered some early losses, held support, and rallied back in a choppy, but in a steady up-channel. Although key overhead resistance at 5440 Nasdaq 100 and 2360 S&P 500 were repeatedly tested, they were not taken out. They did close near there those numbers, so we’ll have to see what happens tomorrow.
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Wednesday, April 05, 2017
Tesco Dodges a Bullet Customers to Pay £220m for SFO Fraud Fine and Investors Compensation / Companies / Tesco
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So Tesco managed to dodge a bullet and avoid a criminal prosecution by agreeing to pay a fine of £129m as part of a Deferred Prosecution Agreement with the Serious Fraud Office for its 2014 false accounting scandal as well as to compensate investors by an estimated £90m (including interest) for those who bought Tesco shares on the basis of false accounting in 2014.
Wednesday, April 05, 2017
SPX Under Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is right back where it was on March 23, having challenged the Lip of the Cup with Handle for the first time and bringing up the notion of a potential flash crash. Funny thing is, the potential has not changed, it just got delayed. Could something big happen tomorrow? At this point it is anyone’s guess. Many bears have turned neutral, simply because the pattern looks more bullish than bearish. As long as SPX remains under Short-term resistance at 2360.67, the pattern remains bearish. Above that, it turns neutral, while above 2370.42 it may be bullish.