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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 22, 2021

Repo, Debt and Bond Markets in Financial Crisis 2.0, Michael "Big Short" Burry CRASH is Coming's Track Record / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2 of my recent extensive analysis (Part 1) in advance of Financial Crisis 2.0 as a handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.

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Commodities

Sunday, August 22, 2021

Gold Price and the ‘Taper Tantrum’ / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Richard_Mills

Gold prices are slipping as talk of a “taper tantrum” has investors thinking that the US Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program could be scaled back.

Over the last three days spot gold has dropped $18, peak to trough, on news of US jobless claims falling sharply to 348,000, and the US dollar scaling over a nine-month peak. The dollar’s rise makes gold expensive for holders of other currencies and therefore dents demand for the precious metal.

Good job news indicative of a potential taper and interest rate increase was also responsible for a gold take-down on Aug. 9, when the spot price and gold futures both settled around $1,726, the worst since Mid-April.

A few factors have taken the shine off gold, including a strong US economic recovery with lower unemployment and healthy manufacturing data (the IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI has risen from 59 in January to 63.4 in July); a climbing US dollar index (from 89 in January to its current 93.56), and most importantly, persistent rumors that the US Federal Reserve will reduce its current $120 billion per month asset purchases designed to flood the financial system with money for lending out, and follow that up with a rise in interest rates.

Because gold does not offer a yield, any suggestion of raising rates makes it less attractive to investors looking for interest on their investments. And because gold is a hedge against inflation, winding down the Fed’s balance sheet (a tally of asset purchases) also dents gold’s appeal because there is less chance of rising inflation caused by a continuation of “quantitative easing”.

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Personal_Finance

Sunday, August 22, 2021

Apache Falls Water Splash Ride at Gulliver's Rother Valley Theme Park 2021 / Personal_Finance / Theme Parks

By: N_Walayat

It's Eliza's 7th Birthday soon and as a birthday treat we took her to the recently opened new Theme Park Gulliver's Rother Valley which is situated between Rotherham, Sheffield and Doncaster, so near three major urban areas. Gulliver's theme parks are mainly for under 10's so Eliza's teenage brothers and sisters were a bit bored but Eliza had a lot of fun. Here's what it was like to ride on the Apache Falls water ride, the circular ride that you tend to have at most theme parks such as Legoland, Drayton Manor, Alton Towers etc. Lots of fun and one of the few rides that teenagers will enjoy.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 22, 2021

Top Three Biggest Mistakes Made By Options Traders / Interest-Rates / Options & Warrants

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I have been trading options and coaching / mentoring new options traders for years.  I have seen new traders who were blindly successful and others who were so frustrated on the verge of giving up,  I have seen it all.  Over the years, I have seen some very common themes among all traders, especially with options.  Options trading can be very rewarding but it is not as easy as buying and selling stocks.  There are many more factors and variables you must take into consideration when trading options especially if you are swing trading them or holding them for an extended period of time. 

There is a certain skill it requires that is a mix of technical, statistical, and fundamental analysis.  These are not skills everyone has and you have to master all three if you want to be a really successful trader.  I have noticed stock traders tend to have a good amount of fundamental and technical skills but usually lack in the statistical area.  This can cause a problem when it comes to their success.  While trading stocks, this might be a great formula that works but when switching to options it could be a losing formula.  Many traders don’t know where they went wrong. 

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 22, 2021

Stocks: What to Make of Wall Street's Sky-High Optimism / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

"I believe that the market moves in whatever direction hurts the most participants"

The U.S. stock market has been in an uptrend since March 2009 -- so, more than 12 years.

To add icing to the cake, there's this notable factoid (CNBC, August 16):

S&P 500 doubles from its pandemic bottom, marking the fastest bull market rally since WWII

So, after such a historic run, one might think that many Wall Street analysts would say that it's time to take at least some chips off the table.

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Companies

Sunday, August 22, 2021

Food Tech Startups Aim To Provide Healthy Tailor Made Meals / Companies / Retail Sector

By: Sumeet_Manhas

The majority of consumers in the US and Europe want better information about food they eat, from the quality and origin of ingredients to their environmental impact according to a report from Betway. Companies are now working to increase consumer confidence in the food system by utilizing blockchain to improve transparency throughout the food chain. Its platform allows food companies to track batches and check them in real time as they move through the chain.

The food tech industry is expanding rapidly with the emergence and development of verticals such as food and grocery deliveries, personal cooking boxes, on-demand meal delivery, and these verticals are becoming more popular by the day. The combination of product traceability, end-to-customer support and innovative sales models is what makes the technology possible. We believe we can create a new food culture by combining our technology with start-ups to develop new concepts in food technology.
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Commodities

Saturday, August 21, 2021

The Rise And Fall Of Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

The rise and fall of gold stocks is a story of hurt and disappointment. That is because most of the time gold stocks are in decline.

Below are four charts which depict the sad story. Following each chart I will make some brief comments…

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, August 21, 2021

Markets Making the Fed Blink / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Sea of red in stocks, reversed shortly after the open – is the worst behind? Remembering my Tuesday‘s words bringing up again downside risk (these have been growing for quite a few days before already), I don‘t think so – I consider yesterday‘s volatility as likely not to have yet peaked, and the VIX close above 21 could be overcome perhaps as early as Tuesday.

It‘s that the shift in sentiment to risk off is everywhere to be seen – surging dollar, declining yields, value doing way worse than tech, gold outperforming silver, gold holding up very well, copper and oil striving to bottom, inflation expectations approaching the lower end of its recent range, and quite a few more signs including from select currency pairs – pretty consistent with the takeaways from yesterday‘s extensive analysis. If you hadn‘t read this taper navigation game plan already, have a look, as the feedback was very positive:

(…) This is the time to be picky about where to be exposed to risks, which asset classes are likely to ride the taper and growth storms best. I think it would be copper over oil, and gold over silver. The stock market correction appears in its opening stages indeed, and cryptos still chopping around would be a great result. It‘ll take a while for the dollar to roll over to the downside, but look for it to do so over the medium to longer term, and keep an eye on Treasuries – would be great if they confirmed my midpoint economic cycle hypothesis and didn‘t spike. Finally, I expect the Fed to come to its senses as not enough of what‘s left of the free market, would step up to the plate and finance growing „building back better“ deficits. So far, so good.

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Commodities

Saturday, August 21, 2021

Gold Stocks Break to New Yearly Lows! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a breakdown! Gold stocks underperformed the yellow metal so much that they reached the lowest levels seen this year…

The HUI Index (gold stocks) broke to new 2021 lows while the USD Index broke to new 2021 highs. Just as I’ve been warning you.

Mining stocks’ extreme weakness relative to gold continued yesterday, and while it may seem like the weakness has to have a limit, this limit is likely still quite far from the markets right now.

Let’s take a look at the long-term HUI Index chart for details.

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Companies

Saturday, August 21, 2021

How Alejandro Betancourt Lopez Transformed Hawkers Sunglasses Into a Market Leader / Companies / Investing 2021

By: Sumeet_Manhas

The co-founders of the Hawkers sunglasses brand had already achieved a significant amount of monetary success during its first three years of operation from 2013 to 2016. However, they realized they would need to seek outside funding to stay ahead of the bills and expand their brand beyond their home country of Spain.

The Hawkers team experimented with Kickstarter campaigns in late 2015 and early 2016 with decent success. Seeking approximately $118,000 in United States currency ($100,000 in euros), the team raised almost $225,000 from 9,086 supporters. Alex Moreno, David Moreno, Pablo Sanchez, and Iñaki Soriano, the brothers and friends who originally launched Hawkers, certainly appreciated the support of their backers. They simply realized they would need to go much higher with their funding efforts to meet their business goals.
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Currencies

Friday, August 20, 2021

Crazy Crypto Exchanges - How to Buy Bitcoin for $42k, Sell for $59k when BTC trading at $47k! / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Crazy Crypto Wild Wild West Markets continue to offer unique trading apprentices, literally crazy opportunities such as being able to but Bitcoin for $41k and Sell for $59k whilst the price is trading at $47k! How? Find out in my latest crazy crypto wild wild west exchange trading video.

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Companies

Friday, August 20, 2021

I Stumbled Across a Massive Investing Opportunity in a Parking Lot / Companies / Investing 2021

By: Stephen_McBride

By Justin Spittler : One of the #1 ways to improve your investing returns is to simply:

Take notice of your immediate world.

Take the metaverse, for example—the new 3D, immersive internet that’s becoming more popular by the minute. If you have kids or grandkids, there’s a good chance they’re playing in the metaverse as I type. In fact, more than half of American children are taking part in the metaverse!

This is a powerful piece of information. It reminds me of the moneymaking opportunity in video game stocks in the ‘90s.

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Personal_Finance

Friday, August 20, 2021

5 Ways to Spruce Up Your Garden / Personal_Finance / Home Improvements

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

Sprucing up your garden and the surrounding area is a great idea if you want to enjoy the outdoor space that you have. It’s also something that’s best approached during the late summer and early autumn months before the leaves start to fall and make a complete mess of it. Striking early is best when sprucing up your garden. Here are five ways to do so.

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Currencies

Friday, August 20, 2021

Cardano, Pokadot and Chainlink Technical Buying Levels - My Crypto Market Investing Strategy for 2021 / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Nadeem_Walayat

1. BTC & ETH - My primary focus will be on building positions in BTC and ETH that will target approx 80% of my crypto portfolio, the balance spread between a number of Alt Coins such as Cardano and Pokadot.

2. Hold BUSD and USDC - In advance of buying crypto's I am funding my accounts (mainly Binance) with approx 50% of my target position size to as to capitalise on a high GBP exchange rate, converting into BUSD and USD whilst also correcting my initial error of holding USDT.

3. Place limit orders on approx half of the funds on account across the target crypto's in relatively nearby levels compared to the more distant levels i.e. BTC $21,500 and ETH $1400. Whilst my initial limit orders are far distant from the actual crypto prices as I am anticipating a decline in prices. However over time my orders will gravitate towards being nearer to the actual spot price i.e. over the next 6 months and where I could even be buy crypto at spot rather than with limit orders depending on what transpires over the remainder of this year due to various dynamics such as the Ravencoin halving due in Jan 2022 etc in advance of which I want to have a significant holding of raven coins.

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Commodities

Friday, August 20, 2021

Why Silver’s Breakout Into a Major New Upleg Is Likely Soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and explains why he believes the metal is in the “perfect” buy spot.

Silver is now regarded as the best value hard asset around, and it really doesn’t matter in the long-term whether J. P. Morgan and the other banks try to suppress the price or not. Like gold, it has intrinsic value and, in the situation of high inflation that we are moving into and that has already started, when most asset prices are surging it is illogical to think that silver won’t do likewise.

If they insist on trying to sit on it, all that will happen is that the physical market will break completely from the paper market and they will be increasingly perceived as absurd. We should therefore take advantage of its current relatively very low price to accumulate silver investments across the board.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 20, 2021

S&P 500 Back Below 4,400. Dip to Buy or a New Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks sold off yesterday as the fear of Fed tapering grew. Monday’s run-up was definitely a bull trap, and our short position is profitable now.

The S&P 500 index lost 1.1% on Wednesday and the futures contract continued selling off overnight. The index will most likely break below its late July consolidation and the support level of 4,370 this morning. However, it may get near a short-term bottom, as it gets closer to the 4,350 level. It’s the nearest important support level, marked by the three-month-long upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):

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Currencies

Thursday, August 19, 2021

Ravencoin (RVN) Buying Levels - My Crypto Market Investing Strategy for 2021 / Currencies / Currency War

By: Nadeem_Walayat

1. BTC & ETH - My primary focus will be on building positions in BTC and ETH that will target approx 80% of my crypto portfolio, the balance spread between a number of Alt Coins such as Cardano and Pokadot.

2. Hold BUSD and USDC - In advance of buying crypto's I am funding my accounts (mainly Binance) with approx 50% of my target position size to as to capitalise on a high GBP exchange rate, converting into BUSD and USD whilst also correcting my initial error of holding USDT.

3. Place limit orders on approx half of the funds on account across the target crypto's in relatively nearby levels compared to the more distant levels i.e. BTC $21,500 and ETH $1400. Whilst my initial limit orders are far distant from the actual crypto prices as I am anticipating a decline in prices. However over time my orders will gravitate towards being nearer to the actual spot price i.e. over the next 6 months and where I could even be buy crypto at spot rather than with limit orders depending on what transpires over the remainder of this year due to various dynamics such as the Ravencoin halving due in Jan 2022 etc in advance of which I want to have a significant holding of raven coins.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 19, 2021

Gold Rallies on Softening Inflation. What’s Going On? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation softened slightly in July and gold prices rose, but the bullish joy may be premature. How should we respond?

Inflation eased a bit in July, but it remained disturbingly high. According to the latest BLS report on inflation, the CPI increased 0.5% in July after rising 0.9% in June. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also softened, as it rose 0.3% in July after increasing 0.9% in June. The deceleration was mainly caused by a much smaller advance in the index for used cars, which increased only 0.2% (it was 10.5% in June).

However, on an annual basis, inflation practically stayed unchanged since June, as the chart below shows. The overall index surged 5.4% for the second month in a row (on a seasonally unadjusted basis), while the core CPI soared 4.3%, following a 4.5% jump in the previous month.
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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 19, 2021

Fed Between a Rock and a Hard Place / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

No, it‘s not about stocks, however well they hang on to recent gains. ATHs hit again amid recovering corporate credit markets, with both tech and value contributing. Value though was looking more vulnerable going into yesterday‘s session, and just one look at financials or energy confirms that – in the world of question marks over high pace of economic growth, it‘s the Fed that‘s between a rock and hard place.

On one hand, they have stubborn and quickening inflation to deal with (or pretend to deal with through the FOMC, the federal open mouth committee) – getting ahead of the curve means serious tightening (okay, first getting less loose monetarily, which is what taper is about). Given China‘s slowdown and corresponding U.S. figures projected, it would be a tall order to turn off the spigot into a weakening (but still growing) economy – that has potential to trigger quite a correction in stocks and risk-on assets. Note copper and oil paring recent gains, and going largely sideways for weeks – not rolling over, but the light is amber, irrespective of the infrastructure bill.

On the other hand, if the central bank does nothing, inflation would grow even more entrenched, sinking the stock market and economy over time, anyway. Don‘t forget about the massive spending – the Fed turning restrictive isn‘t the math favored outcome here.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 19, 2021

Surprising Consumer Activity May Suggest A Deeper Shift In The Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent economic data suggests that US consumers are starting to pull away from the types of buying/spending activities we saw after the COVID virus event that shifted the US economy away from travel/office and towards work-from-home solutions.  The deep decline in the US and global economic indicators, as a result of the COVID-19 shutdown, prompted an incredible recovery rally phase in the markets that had everyone chasing the uptrend in stocks, housing prices, and other assets.  Now that we are beyond 15+ months after the March 2020 COVID lows, a new dynamic may be setting up in the markets.

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