Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, August 16, 2019
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The major gold miners’ stocks have soared in recent months, fueled by gold’s decisive breakout to new bull-market highs. Nothing motivates traders like performance, so interest in this long-neglected sector has exploded. While gold stocks’ technicals and sentiment have greatly strengthened, their just-reported Q2’19 results reveal whether their underlying fundamentals support their powerful surge and further upside.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.
The definitive list of major gold-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular gold-stock investment vehicle, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Launched way back in May 2006, it has an insurmountable first-mover lead. GDX’s net assets running $11.8b this week were a staggering 44.0x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF! GDX is effectively this sector’s blue-chip index.
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Friday, August 16, 2019
Precious Metals Gone Wild! Reaching Initial Targets – Now What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We have heard from so many of our followers and members regarding our precious metals calls and research articles. Additionally, many of our members and followers have recently asked us about our August 19 breakdown prediction for the US/Global markets. In this research post, we’ll highlight some of our expectations for the precious metals and how that relates to the potential August 19 breakdown expectations.
October 5 ADL predictive modeling forecast chart
Our incredible October 5 ADL predictive modeling chart, below, highlights just how powerful some of our proprietary price modeling tools really are. Imagine having the ability to look 10+ months into the future to be able to attempt to understand exactly what price may attempt to do and to be able to plan and prepare for these moves well ahead of the “setup”. So far, our analysis of the precious metals has been spot on and we’ll continue to try to update our members and followers as this movement continues.
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Thursday, August 15, 2019
Is Widening Yield Curve Inversion Lifting Gold Prices Up? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The yield curve inversion just got more pronounced. Not only the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries, now also the spread between 10-year and 2-year turned negative. That sends a warning signal about the state of the real economy. About a recession on the horizon. Some might argue that the yield curve’s predictive power has diminished with all the unorthodox monetary policies since the Great Recession. Yet, it’s a valid reason to worry – how does gold welcome this message?
Thursday, August 15, 2019
GOLD BULL RUN TREND ANALYSIS / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2/2 of my Gold price forecast update Gold Price Breakout - Trend Forecast 2019 July Update.
So the gold price has broken out of it's long-term trading range of $1370 to $1150. Which means $1370 should now act as a floor under the Gold price, else it's back into the range for several more years! Next resistance is at just above $1500 and then $1800 which is my long-term target for the Gold price as of December 2016.
Therefore, as I stated in my May analysis, as the Gold price has now overcome resistance of $1350 to $1370 then the Gold price should be propelled higher towards a target of between $1500 to $1530.
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Thursday, August 15, 2019
It's Time to Get Serious about Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The World Silver Survey 2019 Review, the institute’s annual World Silver Survey said that global silver demand hit a three-year high in 2018, surpassing more than one billion ounces, an increase of 4% from 2017.
At the same time, global silver mine production fell for the third straight year, dropping 2% in 2018 to 855.7 million ounces.
The top 10 silver producing countries are: Peru, Bolivia, Australia, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Poland, China, Russia and Guatemala.
And get this... in every one of these countries, silver production has been falling for the last 4 consecutive years!
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Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Fool’s Silver: Why Most “Silver Miners” Don’t Live Up to Their Name / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
If you buy shares in a silver mining company, you will have to assume additional market risks compared to ownership of silver bullion. You may wish to do so in order to potentially gain leveraged exposure to silver prices.
What you may not realize, however, is that most of the publicly traded “silver” stocks out there are primarily in the business of mining other metals – sometimes gold, often copper, zinc, lead, and other base metals.
Consider Pan American Silver (NYSE:PAAS), a $3.6 billion company that makes up the largest weighting (13.5%) in the Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE:SIL).
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Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Gold Near Term Risk is Increasing / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Last week was another strong one for the precious metals sector.
Gold gained a whopping $51/oz or 3.5%. The gold stocks (GDX, GDXJ) advanced by roughly 6%. Silver gained 4%.
Momentum in the sector began to build once Gold surpassed resistance at $1420-$1425/oz. We had noted the lack of resistance from $1425 to $1525-$1550/oz.
Gold has not reached $1550/oz yet but as it inches higher, some technical and sentiment indicators are urging caution.
Gold’s net speculative position of 54% is very close to the peaks of 55% to 60% seen since 2000. It’s possible the commercial hedgers will start covering at somepoint like they did in 2006 and 2010 but for now we have to assume they won’t if $1550/oz holds as resistance.
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Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Gold Bulls Must Love the Hong Kong Protests / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It appears that the two steps forward, one step backwards approach of mainland China isn’t working as Hong Kong citizens are protesting again. The increasingly violent protests have plunged Chinese-ruled Hong Kong into its most serious crisis in decades, and the situation appears to be getting worse every week. What does it imply for the gold market?
Hong Kongers Protest
On Monday, Hong Kong’s Airport Authority canceled flights as demonstrators poured into its main terminal. What is going on in Hong Kong? The protests began over plans that would have allowed extradition from Hong Kong to mainland China. Although the bill was suspended, the protests continue, as people demand democratic reforms. The problem is that although Hong Kong – as a former British colony – still enjoys freedoms not seen in mainland China, they are on the decline. The protesters say that mainland China is meddling in Hong Kong, citing examples such as legal rulings that have disqualified pro-democracy legislators.
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Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Gold, Markets and Invasive Species / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger draws connections between nefarious non-native species in the natural world and in the world markets. Invasive species: Any kind of living organism—an amphibian (like the cane toad), plant, insect, fish, fungus, bacteria, or even an organism's seeds or eggs—that is not native to an ecosystem and causes harm. They can harm the environment, the economy, or even human health.
In the 1830s, a creature called the "sea lamprey" was first detected in Lake Ontario after it was able to migrate from the Finger Lakes of upstate New York by way of the Erie Canal, which was constructed in 1825. In the 1800s the Great Lakes fishing industry harvested over 100 million pounds of fish for both domestic consumption and export before this incredibly creepy creature laid virtual waste to the fishery stock. Within one hundred years, the harvest had dwindled to approximately one-third of its peak as the absence of natural predators allowed it to feast on the Great Lakes fisheries with reckless abandon and unopposed execution.
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Tuesday, August 13, 2019
This is the real move in gold and silver… it’s going to be multiyear / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up David Morgan of The Morgan Report joins me to break down the recent move in the metals, explains why he believes the move is a result of something no one is talking about – and he also gives us some key levels for silver, as it looks to gather strength from here. So don’t miss another must-hear conversation with David Morgan, coming up after this week’s market update.
What a wild week it’s been for investors.
The threat of global trade wars and currency wars sparked big swings across all major asset classes. Bond yields dove toward historic lows. Stocks plunged earlier in the week before rebounding sharply by Thursday. And precious metals rode a huge safe-haven wave higher.
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Monday, August 12, 2019
Will Gold Continue to Outperform Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Submissions
Gold Strength Dominates the MarketsThe recent rally in Gold has been hard to ignore. The yellow metal is certainly showing a lot of strength. But unlike prior rallies, the current one stands out in several ways.
For starters, Gold is trading at record levels against four of the seven major currencies. Looking at just spot Gold against the dollar does not represent just how strong Gold is at the moment. But not only that, Gold is rallying without the common correlations that we have seen in the past. Specifically, equities are not really under a whole lot of pressure at the moment. Neither is the dollar. In fact, the greenback just broke to a fresh high in the past few weeks.
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Monday, August 12, 2019
All Eyes On Copper / Commodities / Copper
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Copper is a fairly strong measure of the strength and capacity of the global economy and global manufacturing. Right now, Copper has been under quite a bit of pricing pressure and has fallen from levels above $4.50 (near 2011) to levels near $2.55. Most recently, Copper has rotated higher to levels near $3.25 after President Trump was elected on November 2016, yet has recently fallen as trade and global economic concerns become more intense.
This should be viewed as a strong warning sign that institutional traders and investors are very concerned that the future economic and manufacturing activities throughout the world are continuing to contract. Copper is used in various forms throughout all types of manufacturing and consumer products, such as computers, building & infrastructure, electronics, chemical & medical use as well as automobile and aircraft manufacturing. It makes sense that copper prices would be a leading indicator for much of the global economy and relate to economic output and capacity.
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Monday, August 12, 2019
History of Yield Curve Inversions and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The inversion of the yield curve is of crucial importance as it has historically been one of the most reliable recessionary gauges. Consequently, we invite you to read our today’s article about the history of the yield curve inversions and find out whether the recession is coming, and what does it mean for the gold market.
We keep our promises. In the previous edition of the Market Overview, we promised our Readers to “dig even deeper into the predictive power of the yield curve”. As a refresher, please take a look at the chart below. It shows the U.S. Treasury yield curve, or actually not the whole curve, but the spread between 10-year and 3-month government bonds. As one can see, that difference is still negative (as of July 19). It means that the yield curve remains inverted (on a daily basis) since May 2019 (we abstract from the short-lived dip in March 2019).
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Monday, August 12, 2019
Precious Metals Soar on Falling Yields, Currency Turmoil / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
What a wild week it’s been for investors.
The threat of global trade wars and currency wars sparked big swings across all major asset classes. Bond yields dove toward historic lows. Stocks plunged earlier in the week before rebounding sharply by Thursday. And precious metals rode a huge safe-haven wave higher.
Gold prices eclipsed the $1,500 level on Wednesday for the first time in over six years. Meanwhile, silver pushed above $17 an ounce to record a one-year high. Both metals are up over 4% for the week.
The money metals are becoming increasingly attractive as President Donald Trump ramps up his battles against China abroad and the Federal Reserve at home.
Thursday, August 08, 2019
We Are So Stupid When It Comes To Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
In 3rd grade, my teacher had a sign up at the front of the class which read: PUT BRAIN IN GEAR BEFORE ENGAGING MOUTH
This made an impression upon me as a 3rd grader. Yet, many adults have yet to learn this lesson.
It seems that every single analyst that you read regarding the gold market parrots the exact same thesis: If the dollar rises gold falls, and if the dollar falls gold rises. This is the first point in which these analysts have not put their brains in gear before engaging their mouth.
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Thursday, August 08, 2019
Natural Gas and Crude Oil – Diverging Setups For Technical Traders / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past few weeks and months, we’ve been alerting our followers to the incredible setups in Natural Gas and Crude Oil. If you’ve been following our research, you already know on May 21st we called for Oil to break down from $62 level with a target of $55 then $49 price levels.
We’ve been alerting that Natural Gas was setting up an incredible seasonal trade with a move that was likely to push lower into the $2.00 to $2.20 level – suggesting any move into this range would be a solid buying opportunity for the seasonal upside move. Well, here we are about 35 days later and look at what happened.
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Thursday, August 08, 2019
Currency Wars Are Wars That Gold Wins in the End / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
July nonfarm payrolls came in line with expectations, confirming the strength of the U.S. labor market. So far so good. With the markets more focused now on the escalation of the trade war triggered by Trump’s tweet on Thursday., she stock market plunged while gold rallied. Can the upcoming news take gold higher still?
July Payrolls in Line with Expectations
The U.S. created 164,000 jobs in July, following a strong increase of 193,000 in June (after a downward revision). The nonfarm payrolls were in line with expectations and widespread, but with a leading role of education and health services (+66,000) and professional and business services (+38,000). Retail trade, mining, utilities, and information cut jobs.
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Thursday, August 08, 2019
Silver Setting Up 70s Style Rally In The Midst Of Financial Collapse? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
We are currently at an important point of the economic cycle. The end or peak of debt-based assets, and the significant appreciation of real assets like gold and silver.
An example of the last time we were in a similar position is the late 70s. The Dow was at or near peak levels after a multi-decade bull market, while gold and silver was in the midst (or end) of a consolidation (or correction).
The Dow could only start a new bull market after gold and silver had huge blow-off tops.
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Wednesday, August 07, 2019
Gold and Silver Boosted by first Fedrate cut since Financial Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: John_Lee
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday (July 31, 2019) for the first time in more than a decade.It was trying to keep America’s record-long economic expansion going by insulating the economy from mounting global threats.
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Tuesday, August 06, 2019
There’s More Upside in Gold & Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
After a major trend change, it can be difficult for the majority of investors and market watchers to shift and adjust accordingly to the new trend.
It’s no different in the current case of precious metals which, other than a huge rally in the first half of 2016 have been dead money for the majority of the current decade. Despite the newfound bullish fundamentals and bullish technical action, plenty of worry remains that the breakout in Gold could fail.
Conventional wisdom argues the sector has run too far too fast and needs to correct. Technical and sentiment indicators are showing extremes (but only when judged against recent, bear market years).
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