Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Will the Transitory Inflation Turn into a Tailwind for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Chair Powell claims that subdued inflation is caused by transitory factors. Does the recent data confirms his views? And just how transitory is the new tariff rate on $200bn Chinese imports? Will we see a creep higher in inflation about to lift the gold prices?
CPI Edges Up
At the post-FOMC press conference in May, Jerome Powell said that some transitory factors could be responsible for muted inflationary pressure. The latest data seems to support his view that the recent slowdown in inflation was temporary.
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Tuesday, May 14, 2019
The Exter Inverted Pyramid of Global Liquidity Credit risk, Liquidity and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
In a recent edition of Credit Bubble Bulletin, Doug Noland, the long-time critic of contemporary monetary policy, writes about the odd times in which we live from a financial perspective. “Such a precarious time in history,” he laments. “So much crazy talk has drowned out the reasonable. Deficits don’t matter, so why not a trillion or two for infrastructure? Our federal government posted a $691 billion deficit through the first six months of the fiscal year – running 15% above the year-ago level. Yet no amount of supply will ever impact Treasury prices – period. A Federal Reserve governor nominee taking a shot at ‘growth phobiacs’ within the Fed’s ‘temple of secrecy’, while saying growth can easily reach 3 to 4% (5% might be a ‘stretch’). Larry Kudlow saying the Fed might not raise rates again during his lifetime. Little wonder highly speculative global markets have become obsessed with the plausible.”
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Can You Afford To Ignore These Two Flawless Gold Slide Indicators? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
We had warned you about the miners’ bluff and we hope that you heeded it. Gold is still testing the neck level of the head-and-shoulders pattern, but silver is already back at its 2019 lows, while miners broke decisively below them. It may seem that the miners have declined enough and that a rebound is imminent from these levels. Should you hold your breath? Are we on a doorstep of a tradable rebound, or it ain’t here just yet?
To answer that, let’s turn to two analytical gems that have served us so well in the past. Not once, but many times.
We would like to point your attention to two factors that confirm that the next move lower is going to be significant. Yes, we know that you already know that as we provided myriads of details beforehand, but looking at the situation from a fresh perspective and seeing new signals makes it easier to be patient before the move gathers real momentum.
The first of them is the analysis of the silver stocks, and the second is the analysis of the popularity of 2 key search phrases for the gold market. Let’s start with the former.
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Sunday, May 12, 2019
Elliott Wave Analysis of SLV (Silver ETF) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: WavePatternTraders
Is it time to be looking to buy Silver?Into the Feb 2019 highs, traders had turned very bullish on the metals, understandably so, as the metals had been rallying for a number of months from their respective 2018 lows. Upside targets were being increased from the precious metals Gurus, and traders/investors were buying the short term bullish hype.
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Saturday, May 11, 2019
Gold at $1,344 Will Start Real Fireworks on the Upside / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Greg Weldon of Weldon Financial joins me for a sensational interview on how he views the precious metals now and which one he favors over the others. Plus, Greg has some warnings about why a failure to finalize a trade deal with China very soon could be very problematic for the U.S. stock market. So, be sure to stick around for one of our very favorite guests, Greg Weldon, coming up after this week’s market update.
As volatility unnerved stock market investors this week, gold proved to be a good safe haven. The yellow metal didn’t move all that much, but it did provide some measure of stability. For the week, gold prices are up 0.5% to trade at $1,287 per ounce.
Turning to the white metals, they are succumbing to wider selling pressure in economically sensitive assets. Silver shows a weekly loss of 1.4% to bring spot prices to $14.80 an ounce. Platinum is off 1.0% since last Friday to come in at $866. And finally, palladium is rallying strongly today and is now showing only a 0.6% decline on the week to trade at $1,355 per ounce as of this Friday morning recording.
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Friday, May 10, 2019
What is a Bigger Alchemists’ Dream: MMT or Transmutation Into Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Traditional alchemist always desired to turn lead into gold. The modern ones want to increase government spending without any limits. We invite you to read our today’s article about the Modern Monetary Theory and find out what is it and what would mean for the gold market, if implemented.
Great news for all who oppose the House of Lannister’s rule in King’s Landing – the final season of the Game of Thrones has eventually began, so the status quo in Westeros will be certainly challenged. Similarly, we have joyous news for all who dislike the mainstream economics – the new theory has recently joined the game of thrones among the economic theories after the Great Recession. The fresh alternative which is quickly gaining popularity is the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). What is it and what would it bring for the economy and the gold market, if implemented?
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Friday, May 10, 2019
Total Debt and Leveraged Loans to the Rescue of Gold Bulls? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Fed has just published the newest edition of its Financial Stability Report. It covers what the most powerful central bank in the world perceives as risks to the financial system stability. Is it time for the gold bulls to uncork champagne?
Financial Sectors Appears Resilient, But…
The Fed’s assessment of the financial vulnerabilities in the latest Financial Stability Report has little changed since November 2018 when the report was inaugurated. The financial sector appears resilient, with low leverage and limited funding risk. It seems that gold will have to wait longer for a crisis that could push its prices out of the comfort zone.
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Thursday, May 09, 2019
Gold Miners’ Strength – What If It Isn’t Just a Bluff? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The stock market took a dive, and gold with silver barely moved higher. Miners had little reason to rally, especially that they have been underperforming gold for many days now. And yet, gold stocks and silver stocks moved visibly higher. What if it isn’t just a bluff? What if it’s the first sign that the near-term bottom is already in?
Well, if this is the case, then the upside for the miners is very limited.
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Thursday, May 09, 2019
Gold Market Investors Subliminal Capitulation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger suggests investors "never underestimate the replacement power of stocks within a Fed-induced credit bubble" and provides other observations on the markets. Looking back at the events of last week, the S&P 500 finally took out the October highs at 2,941 intraday, making the 2018 bear market one of the shortest on record at 93 days (Sept. 21–Dec. 24). You will recall that I wrote in early January that the action of the Santa Claus rally (positive) and the action of the First Five Days rule (positive) was finally confirmed by the January Indicator (positive), setting up new highs for 2019 (which was right). I also said that I expected a retest of the December lows (wrong) and a pullback from the 200 daily moving average (dma) in February (wrong) and that Goldman Sachs was headed back to $150 (wrong) (at least so far).
Look at these charts. Can any of you honestly see any difference? They both reek of intervention but the only difference is that the one from 2009 has now had books and movies written about it. We know that no one went to jail over the causes of the crash, and we know that the method used by the central bankers to correct the problem (which was to take in all of the toxic paper that was rotting their balance sheets) resulted in more debt creation ($14 trillion worth). This was exactly the root of the 2018 problem because as soon as they tried to remove the 2009 "bandaid,"they were catapulted right back to 2009. Stocks were simply gravitating back to their old trajectory before the Fed/Treasury bailout temporarily saved the stock market. What we got last Christmas Eve was the same bailout as in 2009, but it came about before people started to lose jobs and homes. The "V-bottom"turns in 2009 and in 2019 are identical, and emanated from interventions of the highest order and priority.
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Thursday, May 09, 2019
New Federal Legislation Requires Full Audit of America’s Gold Reserves / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) introduced legislation this week to provide for the first audit of United States gold reserves since the Eisenhower Administration.
The Gold Reserve Transparency Act (H.R. 2559) – backed by the Sound Money Defense League and government accountability advocates – directs the Comptroller of the United States to conduct a “full assay, inventory, and audit of all gold reserves, including any gold in ‘deep storage,’ of the United States at the place or places where such reserves are kept.”
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Wednesday, May 08, 2019
Trump Bashes Political Correctness, Gold Rush Mascot Banned as Offensive / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The roller coaster presidency of Donald Trump is currently riding high as the stock market races back up to new highs, economic data come in better than expected, and Congressional Democrats’ endless investigations come up empty handed.
Trump’s approval rating recently hit 50% at the same time as CNN’s ratings are tanking.
Over the weekend, President Trump sent CNN and the rest of the “MSM” (mainstream media) into a tizzy by speaking out against the latest Big Tech purge of “far right” voices.
Trump re-tweeted verboten alternative media personalities including Paul Joseph Watson and Lauren Southern.
Wednesday, May 08, 2019
Do the Crude Oil Bulls Have Any Aces Left Up Their Sleeves? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Crude oil has had an eventful session yesterday. It has closed the opening gap and the bulls have been building upon their gains till the session’s close. Earlier today however, the price appears to be rolling over and heading south. Is all hope for higher oil lost? The bulls have shown to be quite tireless. Can they pull a rabbit out of their hats shortly?
Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Tuesday, May 07, 2019
Waiting for Double Bottom Support in Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Several weeks ago we wrote about the downside risk in the gold stocks.
After the various gold stock indices formed distribution-type tops, the subsequent selling has been swift. Miners have plunged through moving averages and short-term breadth indicators quickly reached oversold extremes.
While the gold stocks are oversold, it could be a little while before we can expect a sustained rebound.
We plot GDX below along with the percentage of HUI stocks that closed above the 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average. (The HUI is essentially GDX sans royalty companies).
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Tuesday, May 07, 2019
Silver Sets Up A Long-Term Wave B Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Precious Metals traders have been hanging on every turn in the markets over the past 2+ years. The upside price move in early 2016 setup a very strong expectation that further upside price moves were about to result in an upside price explosion in metals. Remember, 2016 was a very big US Presidential election year. 2020, being the next big US Presidential election year, is only about 7 months away and the rancor has already started in the news cycles.
Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that Silver has set up an ABC bottom in Oct/Nov 2018 and has already initiated an A/B upside price leg that should result in a C or C/D/E price advance over the next few months. Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting an upside price target of $22 per ounce for this move, which breaks the previous July 2016 highs of $21.22. We believe the ultimate upside target of this next bullish move is bear $28 to $29 based on longer-term Fibonacci price modeling.
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Monday, May 06, 2019
Gold Stocks Big Picture / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
I was going through some old long term charts I haven’t posted in many years to see if there was anything of interest to post tonight. With long term charts things don’t change very fast and the big picture can stay viable for years. I have literally hundreds of charts for the different PM stock indexes that I’ve built through the years that are tucked away in different chart lists that I don’t check very often. It’s always interesting to go through some of those old chart lists, especially with the longer term charts, to see what I was thinking years ago and how relative that big picture looks today.
This first chart is a 12 year weekly chart for the XAU which begins with the 2007 small H&S top that led to the crash in 2008. When I first began to post that potential H&S top nobody and I mean nobody wanted to hear about it. The PM complex had been in a raging bull market up to that time so how could there be a H&S top reversal pattern forming. That 2007 H&S top produced the biggest and most vertical decline in the history of the XAU which caught most PM investors off guard. Luckily for those investors that held on during that massive decline, which would have been near impossible, were treated to a reverse symmetry rally back up over the same area on the way down. That 2008 crash low rally produced marginally new highs which turned out to be a massive H&S top which ended the bull market.
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up we have an eye-opening interview with Bill Holter of JS Mineset. Bill weighs in host of topics including our incredibly broken and phony markets, the truth behind why governments hate gold so much, and the real reasons why China and Russia are eagerly amassing huge gold positions.
Bill also highlights some tell-tale events he believes could cause a massive revaluation of gold and silver… and an implosion of the debt-based markets we have today. Don’t miss our explosive interview with Bill Holter, coming up after this week’s market update.
Precious metals markets got hit this week as the Federal Reserve threw cold water on the idea of interest rate cuts.
Fed policy makers met on Wednesday and left their benchmark rate unchanged as expected. The Fed’s statement noted that price inflation excluding food and energy has declined over the past 12 months and is officially running below 2%. This, even as oil and gasoline prices have trended sharply higher this year.
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
Looking At Crude Oil Price Corrective Upswing, Is the Bottom In? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
It looks like crude oil is set for a sizable weekly decline. After yesterday’s plunge, the market looks to have stabilized today. But is it really so? In today’s analysis, we’re bringing you the details. We objectively reveal what to expect next. Either the bulls or the bears won’t like it. Who do you think it’ll be?
Let’s take a closer look at the chart below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Sunday, May 05, 2019
US $2 Trillion Infrastructure Plan Will Require Mega Metals / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Richard_Mills
The White House and Congress finally agreed to put their significant differences aside and work together on something constructive, no pun intended.
On Wednesday it was announced that President Trump and Democratic congressional leaders plan to spend $2 trillion on US roads, bridges, power grids, water and broadband infrastructure - bricks and mortar priorities that are sorely underfunded in both the United States and Canada.
For more on this, read our The global infrastructure deficit: the road not yet taken
“We just had a very productive meeting with the president of the United States,” House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Polosi said during a press scrum, adding: “We did come to one agreement: That the agreement would be big and bold.”
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
Will Yuan Replace US Dollar and Make Gold Shine? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
“The US dollar will collapse or it will be replaced by another currency” – we hear such statements all the time. Are they true? We decided to check these claims – so we invite you to read our today’s article about the US dollar’s international supremacy and find out whether the greenback’s demise is likely in the foreseeable future. Let’s also draw implications from the analysis for the precious metals market.
We have heard about the fall of the US dollar’s significance for over half a century. In particular, the rise of China’s economy threatens the greenback’s dominance. Trump’s unsound fiscal policy and the recent Powell’s dovish turn only reinforce these fears. So, let’s analyze whether such a scenario is likely in the foreseeable future and let’s draw implications for the precious metals market.
The dollar’s supremacy started around 1955 when reserves held in greenback exceeded those held in pound sterling. Since then, the US dollar is a king. To be clear, we do not maintain that greenback is a wonderful currency without problems and better than gold. No, it simply has no competitors among other fiat currencies. It is a king of beggars.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2019
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Carpe Diem / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger reviews recent movements in precious metals and discusses how he is playing the market. Last week I sent out my uber-bullish call on the metals and miners at the conclusion of a period fraught with doom and despair for all things gold and silver. The criminality of the interventionists was in full bloom as they bombed gold down through that critical "Line in the Sand" at $1282 forcing the Speculative Longs (hedge funds, quant funds, technical funds) to immediately reverse and regurgitate longs and initiate big new short positions as the bullion bank behemoths took profits. First, let's revisit that missive.
From Saturday the 20th: "All right, now that I have concluded my rant on the madness being inflicted upon us, I have a couple of observations to make about gold. Earlier last week, I was looking at GLD wondering whether my GLD May $124 puts might hit $5.00 before the end of the week and then it occurred to me that my "Line in the Sand" at the prior lows of $1,282 and the subsequent "breakDOWN" was no different in its blatancy than the "breakOUT" in Barrick. So, I pulled up the GLD chart and lo and behold, while the sub-30 level for RSI sported two super buying opportunities in 2018, it has not been much under 35 in all of 2019 thus far. Now, notwithstanding that the stock markets are getting somewhat stretched, I have to respect two things: 1) the dotted red line in the RSI window in the chart below and 2) that only in the perverse world of precious metals are technical "breakdowns" to be BOUGHT while technical "breakouts to be SOLD. Therefore, I have covered all my shorts in both gold and the mining shares and initiated 50% long positions in JNUG, NUGT and the GLD June $120 calls. The chart below pretty much says all that is needed; we are at an inflection point that represented tradeable bottoms in mid-November and early March."
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